The Las Vegas Aces (8-9) and Connecticut Sun (2-15) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 4:00 p.m. EDT at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. The game will be broadcast live on Vegas 34.
The Aces are favored by -17.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 157.5 (-108o / -110u). The Aces are a -2000 favorite to win outright, while the Sun are +1000 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Aces vs. Sun prediction and WNBA picks.
Aces vs. Sun Odds, Pick
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -112 | 157.5 -108o / -110u | -2000 |
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -108 | 157.5 -108o / -110u | +1000 |
- Aces vs. Sun Spread: Aces -17.5 (-112), Sun +17.5 (-108)
- Aces vs. Sun Over/Under: 157.5 (-108o / -110u)
- Aces vs. Sun Moneyline: Aces -2000, Sun +1000
- Aces vs. Sun Best Bet: Sun +17.5
Aces vs. Sun Preview
The Aces continue their five-game road trip with a game in Connecticut against the Sun. Las Vegas began this trip with a win over Phoenix and is now coming off a loss to Indiana.
Meanwhile, Connecticut's nightmare season continues. The Sun have lost nine straight and are simply trying to find something that works. They're coming off a 39-point loss to the Lynx and, at the very least, are hoping to be more competitive tonight at home.
Yes, that 39-point loss is concerning, but make sure not to overreact. Bad losses happen, but don't always reflect the true nature of things — just look at the following Bet Labs' system as an example.
Aces vs. Sun Prediction
This system focuses only on games after a non-close loss, which is defined as a margin of defeat worse than seven points. These situations heighten market negativity and inflate the spread for the following game.
However, this system suggests that WNBA teams — even teams with poor records — can respond competitively, especially when lines cross a key value threshold, like 11.5 or more. We're capturing max line inflation, which is driven by poor optics, not predictive fundamentals.
The "Bet Bad Teams as Big Dogs after Non-Close Loss" system has cashed 56% of its picks this season and generated a 7% ROI. Lifetime, this system is 146-93-4 (61%) and has turned in an 18% ROI.
Best Bet: Sun +17.5
