The Los Angeles Sparks (1-3) and Phoenix Mercury (2-3) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. EDT at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Ariz. The game will be broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Mercury are favored by -3.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 177.5 (-110o / -110u). The Mercury are a -150 favorite to win outright, while the Sparks are +122 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sparks vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks.
Sparks vs. Mercury Odds, Pick
| Sparks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -112 | 177.5 -110o / -110u | +122 |
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -108 | 177.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
- Sparks vs. Mercury Spread: Mercury -3.5 (-108), Sparks +3.5 (-112)
- Sparks vs. Mercury Over/Under: 177.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Sparks vs. Mercury Moneyline: Sparks +122, Mercury -150
- Sparks vs. Mercury Best Bet: Ariel Atkins Over 10.5 Points (-106)
Sparks vs. Mercury Preview
The Sparks and Mercury are both still searching for consistency early in the season.
After a three-day break, Los Angeles will play its first road game after splitting a set with Toronto. This contest will tip-off a four-game trip to close out the month.
Two-time champion Kelsey Plum leads the charge for the Sparks. The guard is enjoying a career-best season in Year 8 with a league-best 26.8 points per game on 59.4% shooting. She’s been the team’s top-scorer in every game.
Dearica Hamby (17 PPG, 7.3 RPG) and 10-time All-Star Nneka Ogwumike (16.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG) round out LA’s big three. The trio combined for 66 of the Sparks’ 96 points in Sunday’s loss to the Tempo. The biggest issue is the lack of consistent scoring depth behind them.
The Mercury will try to split their four-game homestand before heading on the road for three this weekend. Phoenix is also coming off a loss to Toronto after a tight matchup slipped way in the fourth quarter.
The Mercury showcase more balance, with every member of the starting lineup averaging double-figures in scoring.
Kahleah Copper (17.8 PPG) leads the way, followed by regular triple-double threat Alyssa Thomas (16.6 PPG, 8.4 APG, 7.2 REB), standout Serbian rookie Jovana Nogic (15.5 PPG), veteran DeWanna Bonner (11 PPG, 6.6 RPG) and Natasha Mack (10.5 PPG, 8.6 RPG).
While these teams are fairly even in many statistical categories, including Phoenix’s 88.6 to 87.8 scoring edge, the biggest separator may come from behind the arc. The Mercury rank fifth in the WNBA in 3-point shooting at 34.7%, while the Sparks sit 11th at 30%. Phoenix also draws 27.2 free throw attempts per game to rank second in the league.
One problem for Los Angeles so far has been rebounding. LA averages only 26.5 rebounds a night, worst in the W. That’s contributed to the Sparks allowing a league-high 98.3 points per game.
Sparks vs. Mercury Prediction
One player the Sparks should absolutely be getting more from offensively is ninth-year guard Ariel Atkins.
The two-time All-Star and Olympic gold medalist is primed to return to the lineup after concussion concerns cost her the Sparks’ last two games. She debuted with eight points on 3-of-12 shooting in 32 minutes in a season-opening blowout loss to the Aces, but foul trouble and the head injury limited her to just 16 minutes in her follow-up effort.
Now that Atkins is good to go, she should provide a needed secondary scoring boost. Atkins averages 13.3 points per game for her career and has finished every season in double-figures.
At only 5.0 PPG to begin this year, that’s a visible outlier, and good reason to look to Atkins’ over 10.5 points prop at an advantageous -106 line.
Action Pro projects her for 13.27 points, giving this play a 26.6% edge, which is the biggest on the board for this game and the third-largest on the slate.
Best Bet: Ariel Atkins Over 10.5 Points (-106)
