Venezuela will play Italy in the World Baseball Classic semifinals on Monday, March 16, at loanDepot Park in Miami, Florida.
The game will start at 8 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FS1.
Venezuela is a -185 Moneyline favorite and a -1.5 (-120) run line favorite. The total is set at 10 (-115 / -105).
Here's my Venezuela vs Italy prediction and World Baseball Classic semi-final odds for March 16, 2026.
Venezuela vs Italy Prediction
- My Pick: Venezuela ML + Under 11.5 Parlay (+135, bet365)
My Venezuela vs Italy best bet is on a same-game parlay between Venezuela's ML and the Under 11.5
Venezuela vs Italy Odds, Spread, and Over/Under
| Venezuela Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 10 -120 / -105 | -180 |
| Italy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 10 -120 / -105 | +145 |
- Venezuela vs Italy Moneyline: Venezuela -180, Italy +145
- Venezuela vs Italy Run Line: Venezuela -1.5 (-120), Italy +1.5 (+100)
- Venezuela vs Italy Total: 10 (-120 / -105)
Venezuela vs Italy World Baseball Classic Semi-Final Pick
Venezuela Betting Preview
25-year-old righty Keider Montero will make the biggest start of his career Monday.
Montero last worked when he threw 3 shutout innings on March 9th versus Nicaragua. Montero pitched to a 4.37 ERA and 4.46 xFIP across 90 and 2/3 innings of work last season with the Detroit Tigers, with a 96 Stuff+ rating and a 96 Pitching+ rating.
Montero will likely be on a pretty short leash in this matchup, given the dominance of Venezuela's strong bullpen in this tournament.
Venezuela's relief staff has posted a 1.08 ERA and enters off a strong showing versus Japan in the quarterfinal. After Ranger Suarez allowed five earned runs across just 2 2/3 innings versus Japan, Eduard Bazardo, Enmanuel De Jesus, Jose Butto, Angel Zerpa, Andres Machado, and Daniel Palencia threw 6 1/3 scoreless innings.
Venezuela's high-powered lineup has had a solid start to the tournament, batting .278 with an .809 OPS. It has struck out just 14.5% of the time and, led by Ronald Acuña Jr., has eight batters expected to hold wRC+ ratings greater than 100 at the MLB level this season.
Relative to an average MLB side, Venezuela's defensive alignment also projects to be a strength, with Luis Arraez at second looking like the only weak link in the field.
Italy Betting Preview
Italy's style of play in this tournament has made it a particularly lovable underdog story, as it has scored 8 runs per game and slugged .580, largely thanks an 12 home runs.
Italy became a trendy underdog pick entering the tournament based on the potential that its power-hitting could lead to some volatile results, and that narrative has certainly come to fruition. Its 21.5% strikeout rate is a concern, and its statistical profile would likely have many analysts calling for regression based on a longer MLB season, but it's a process that has worked well to this point.
Aaron Nola did Team USA a favor in his last outing versus Mexico, as he threw 5 shutout innings while allowing only four hits.
Though Mexico was a disappointment in this tournament, its lineup does feature numerous quality MLB bats. Italy offers a different approach, but at worst, Mexico's lineup was projected to be as threatening.
Nola held a 4.12 xERA and 3.71 xFIP across 94 and 1/3 innings last season, but stranded just 62.4% of baserunners and finished with the worst ERA of his career by a wide margin. He posted strong advanced pitching model metrics (105 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+) and appears to be a bounce-back candidate for the upcoming MLB season.
He held a strong Stuff+ rating of 105 and a Pitching+ rating of 108, and overall appears to be a likely bounce-back candidate this season.
How To Bet My Venezuela vs Japan World Baseball Classic Pick
Though fading the Italians don't feel like a lot of fun, their 5-0 record in the tournament suggests they're overvalued in this matchup.
It's certainly felt like Italy's lineup has something special going, but as we saw with the Dominican Republic on Sunday, when it ran into Paul Skenes and the American bullpen, things can change in a hurry versus a quality pitching staff.
If Italy doesn't manage much off of Montero early, it wouldn't be surprising if they finish with a pretty modest offensive output relative to the high total of 10.5 runs.
Venezuela's bullpen projects to be quite solid, and manager Omar Lopez should be able to use the depth of his bullpen to offer tough matchups for the majority of the game.
A total of 10.5 looks a touch high, while Venezuela also looks slightly undervalued at -185.
You could bet both as straight bets, but a price of +135 for Venezuela to win a game featuring less than 11.5 runs looks to be an appealing way to back both options.
My Pick: Venezuela ML + Under 11.5 Parlay (+135, bet365)
