Demetrius Andrade vs. Maciej Sulecki Betting Odds, Preview: Is Boo Boo Overpriced?
Credit: Ed Mulholland, Matchroom Boxing. Pictured: Demetrius Andrade.
- Demetrius Andrade is a -700 favorite over Maciej Sulecki in a middleweight title fight on Saturday night.
- We preview tonight's fight and wonder if Sulecki is a live underdog against the talented-but-enigmatic Andrade.
Demetrius Andrade vs. Maciej Sulecki Betting Odds
Andrade odds: -700
Sulecki odds: +500
Over/Under: 9.5 Rounds (-400/+300)
Time: Approx. 10 p.m. ET
Demetrius “Boo Boo” Andrade is looking to make his case to become the “third wheel” of boxing’s middleweight division, ruled by Canelo Alvarez and Gennadiy Golovkin. For the past two years that spot has been held by Daniel Jacobs, but after “The Miracle Man” dropped decisions to both GGG and Canelo, there is no clear other guy in the GGG-Canelo Story.
Standing in Andrade’s way of entering the Golovkin-Canelo fray is Maciej “Striczu” Sulecki, a 30-year-old native of Warsaw, Poland who has one loss in his career, a unanimous decision to Jacobs.
This fight is set up to launch Andrade into the next-fight conversation for Canelo or Golovkin. All three fighters are under contract with DAZN and if Canelo decides to side-step a trilogy with Triple-G, Andrade could be an option if a rumored potential showdown with Sergey Kovalev is nonsense.
Andrade has always been the favorite in this fight but his odds have moved pretty significantly since the market opened. At most shops “Boo Boo” opened in the -300/-350 range and has since moved to -700 or higher depending on the book.
At the odds listed above, courtesy of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, Andrade has an implied probability of 84%, without adjusting for the vig.
Demetrius Andrade vs. Maciej Sulecki Betting Picks
After a long spell of inactivity, Andrade seems to be serious about making a run at the big guns in the division and is hoping this fight with Sulecki is his launching pad. That will be much easier said than done.
I think Andrade is a good fighter, but his appointment as “the next guy up” in the Canelo-Golovkin tier is probably a little premature. Boo Boo has the tools you want in a world champion but there have been a lot of questionable performances from the 2008 Olympian.
Not only was Andrade dropped by Alantez Fox in 160-pound debut, but he’s yet to really make good on his early-career hype with a signature win. Sulecki is not what you’d call a high-profile opponent, but he’s still the best opponent that Andrade has had in front of him as a pro.
In terms of tools and athleticism there’s no doubt that Andrade is the better fighter. He’s quick, long and mobile and his 5.5-inch reach advantage will probably prove the difference in this fight. However, I think Sulecki is a live underdog.
There hasn’t been a performance in Andrade’s career — one that has been spoiled a bit by inactivity and weird promotional moves — to suggest he should be a -700 favorite over a solid opponent. Sulecki may not be in the same tier as the big names in the division, but he gave Daniel Jacobs a good run for his money and has the technical know-how to take rounds from Andrade.
Sulecki shouldn’t be a threat to floor Andrade, only 11 of the Pole’s 28 wins have via knockout, but he is definitely the value-side in a fight that is expected to go deep into the night. The Over/Under is set at 9.5 Rounds but the Over is juiced to -400, suggesting there’s a 76.2% chance this fight goes beyond the midway point of the 10th Round.
In a fight that is expected to go the distance, I think there’s value backing the Polish underdog. Andrade is just too much of a question mark to not take a shot on a big price on a good fighter. — Michael Leboff
Sulecki’s toughness and willingness to take on opponents in their own backyard deserves serious recognition. He lost a title eliminator to Daniel Jacobs in the Miracle Man’s hometown of Brooklyn last year and defeated Gabriel Rosado in his hometown of Philadelphia in March.
The common thread on both of those fights? Sulecki went down late, including two knockdowns in the Rosado fight. So either Sulecki is counting his eggs before they hatch, or he has a difficult time closing out fights. Whichever one it is, I think it’s a bad sign for him facing a highly talented and motivated Andrade in front of his home crowd in at the Dunkin’ Donuts center in Providence. Additionally, Andrade has two career TKO wins in the 12th round.
Like Michael, I see this fight going over the 9.5 rounds, but I think the fight ends with Andrade’s power on display. That said I’m going to take Andrade to win in Rounds 7-12 at +600. — Malik Smith