Errol Spence vs. Manny Pacquiao Odds: Why Have Pac-Man’s Odds Dropped So Low?
Steve Marcus/Getty Images. Pictured: Boxer Manny Pacquiao.
Spence vs. Pacquiao Odds
The boxing market is unlike any other sports betting market. It’s the one sport where closing line movement is all but meaningless as the public tends to favor underdogs for long-shot payouts with bookmakers often needing the favorite to win in order to come out ahead.
Given the popularity of the certain fighters and the tendency for fans to make bets based on tribalism, the boxing market isn’t as efficient as other major sports.
The August 21 fight between Manny Pacquiao and Errol Spence isn’t any different as oddsmakers opened Errol Spence as a -475/+380 favorite before a wave of public money on Pacquiao pushed this line down.
Spence (27-0, 21 KOs) is the current unified IBF/WBC welterweight champion, and ranks sixth on The Ring’s active pound for pound fighters list. At 31 years old, Spence is in the prime of his career and is expected to take care of business.
Pacquiao (62-7-2, 39 KOs) is arguably the greatest fighter of this generation, a future Hall of Famer who is the only eight-division world champion in the history of boxing, the first boxer to win the lineal championship in five different weight classes and the only boxer to hold world championships across four decades (1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s).
The best days are behind the 42-year-old Pacquiao who last defeated Keith Thurman in July 2019 to become the oldest welterweight world champion in history at the age of 40.
Still, the public is still betting Pacquiao to get the upset despite the age, height and reach disparity and the amount of wars he’s been through in his career.
Check out the line movement we’ve seen on this fight at William Hill Sportsbook.
While Pacquiao was always expected to get plenty of public action given his status and fanfare, I’m shocked if not flabbergasted how quickly we got to this price point. These are prices that I’d expect to see during the week or day of the fight.
We should see steady Pacquiao action and if you’re in favor of Pacquiao I’d recommend backing him now while waiting to the week of the fight for better prices if you’re interested in backing Spence.
One thing is clear, the sharp and professional money will be on Spence during the week and the night of the fight, so plan accordingly to get the best of the number.