Everton vs Bournemouth Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Preview

Everton vs Bournemouth Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Preview article feature image

Emma Simpson/Getty. Pictured: Jarrad Branthwaite.

Everton vs Bournemouth Odds

Saturday, Oct. 7
10 a.m. ET
Everton Odds-110
Bournemouth Odds+275
Over / Under
 -125 / +100
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

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The Toffees look to end their disastrous home form with Bournemouth coming to Goodison this Saturday.

Everton come in to this match currently sitting 16th in the Premier League, having only gathered four points in their first seven matches. To make matters worse, the Blues have lost all four matches they have played at home so far, most recently handing Luton Town their first ever Premier League victory. While their away form has been solid, Sean Dyche is looking to change the narrative and make Goodison Park the fortress that it used to be under David Moyes.

It seems as though Andoni Iraola's pressing style of play has not translated well to the Premier League level as of yet. Bournemouth are yet to win a match in this young season, having drawn three out of their first seven matches. Coming off of a 4-0 home defeat at the hands of Arsenal, the Cherries will look to get back on track against an underperforming Everton side.

Let's get into my preview and prediction for Everton vs Bournemouth.


Everton need a result at home and they need it to come this Saturday. The Blues have been the opposite of a typical Sean Dyche side, creating more chances than anticipated but also looking extremely vulnerable defensively.

The underlying numbers are actually very encouraging for Everton, who are currently sixth with a +2.8 xGD at Goodison Park. The problem is that there has been a massive underperformance in finishing from every single player, bar James Tarkowski. The Toffees have been the worst finishing team in the league, having underperformed their xG by 6.3 goals, so some positive regression is due soon.

Everton and Bournemouth have both implemented a much more pressing style of play which has led to more high turnovers and chances created from those turnovers. The problem with Everton's press is that against good build up teams there is very little resistance after the first line of pressure from the Everton front line. It allows for a lot of space in the middle of the park and causes the Toffees to heavily rely on Idrissa Gana Gueye and Amadou Onana to win the ball back, which they have been solid at against the teams with less quality.

A big part of Everton's defensive struggles so far has been from set pieces, as they've conceded a league-leading four goals from set pieces already. Luckily for the Blues, Bournemouth have been the least threatening side from set pieces, having creating just 0.98 xG in their first seven matches.

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Bournemouth have gotten off to a less than ideal start to this season, as they currently sit in the relegation zone with three points. They have looked promising at times going forward, creating 4.5 xG in three away matches thus far.

This improved offense is partly due to the pressing style that Iraola has implemented so far this season. They have a PPDA of 11.7, which is miles better than last year. This pressing style has resulted in 13 shot ending high turnovers, the fourth-best in the league. So what their forward line is doing is working, and it is the rest of the pitch that has caused them problems.

Once that initial press is broken, Bournemouth have really struggled to limit opponent chances. They have conceded the third-most goals in the league, only ahead of Burnley and Sheffield United, and have actually over-performed their xGA. This just shows that, similar to Everton, once the press of the forward line is beat there is too much space between the lines to be a successful Premier League club.

The difference between Everton and Bournemouth is that Everton have two great tacklers in Onana and Gana Gueye in the middle of the park to bail them out. Bournemouth have Philip Billing trying to mark two men at once, which will never work.

Everton vs Bournemouth

Pick & Prediction

Bournemouth have not had the easiest fixtures to start the season, but they have been so vulnerable defensively it is hard to imagine a scenario where they limit Everton's chances in this match. The pressing style of play that Iraola wants is just not sustainable with the group of players that he has at his disposal.

Plus, Everton need to start winning matches and picking up points, and this is an ideal spot at Goodison before the international break.

I have Everton at -124 for this one, so not only do I see some value on the moneyline, but I also love the spot as Everton need to start winning these matches against the teams around them, especially at home.

I also see some value in over 2.5 goals for this one as I have it projected at 2.7.

Pick: Everton ML (-110 or better)

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