Man United vs Southampton Odds, Pick: Same Game Parlay on United (March 12)

Man United

The Red Devils' UCL pursuits remain fairly secure despite that recent hiding to one of their two biggest rivals. Entering the weekend, Man U remains in third in the table and seven points clear of fifth-place Liverpool. FiveThirtyEight gives the side a 78% chance of qualifying.

But as damaging as the loss may have been to the ego of Erik ten Hag's squad, it hurt their goal differential just as significantly. The next three teams in the standings all have a significantly better goal differential now, which likely means they'd only have to equal Man U on points to go ahead in the standings.

That inability to pour it on in comfortable victories is a very minor complaint compared to that a previously dysfunctional club faced last season. But it is one bettors should consider.

Thursday's first leg was an exception to the pattern, and probably owed partly to the aggregate goal format placing an additional premium on every goal scored. ten Hag's squad has scored either two or three goals in 16 of 25 home matches in all competitions, including nine out of 12 league games.

That latter figure includes the last six league matches, which amounts to every home league game the Devils have played since the World Cup break.

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Southampton

The Saints were among the active teams at the bottom of the table during the winter transfer window, and they appear to have made an excellent move in signing Carlos Alcaraz. The Argentine attacker midfielder has already scored twice in 187 EPL minutes (five appearances) since his arrival from Racing Club.

The latter goal was the decisive tally in that all-important win. But it came at a cost, with Alcaraz forced to leave the game in the 49th minute with an injury picked up during his goal celebration. He appears to have escaped a long-term layoff, but he's questionable to play Sunday.

Southampton are the only team in the relegation zone entering the weekend with more wins away (four) than at home (two). But they've lost all the away games they haven't won. And their best away victory came against 10th-place Chelsea, with the other three against relegation rivals Bournemouth, Everton and Leicester.

Like Manchester United, Southampton's games are typically fairly open variety, but not manic. The total has landed on three or four goals in six of their 13 away league matches and above that threshold.

Man United vs Southampton Pick

With both teams playing relatively open football but lacing true explosiveness, there's value on a multigoal wager in the middle of the bell curve on 3 or 4 goals at +138 odds and an implied 42% probability. It's been a winning bet on 15 of 25 occasions between Southampton's away matches and Manchester United's home games.

Given the high likelihood of a Man U win — both teams are pretty consistent in terms of quality of foe they've beaten and lost to this year — I also see value on a same game parlay with the total going above 2.5 goals at -105 odds and an implied 51.2% probability. That has cashed in four of Man U's six home league games against sides in the lower half of the table, and six of Southampton's seven matches visiting top-half foes.

There's a strong chance for both wagers to land Sunday. And if you get burnt on the total going over 4.5 goals, there's an extremely high likelihood it's Man U that will be the victor. So the latter wager also functions as a slight hedge.

Picks: 3 or 4 total goals (+138, Caesars); Manchester United and total over 2.5 goals (-105, DraftKings).