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Jennings: The Golfers I’m Bullish and Bearish on at the 2019 Masters

Credit:

Catalina Fragoso, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jason Day

  • The 2019 Masters begins on Thursday, April 11 at Augusta National Golf Course.
  • Peter Jennings talks about the odds, the DFS market and which golfers he's bullish or bearish on heading into this weekend.

The Masters is my favorite gambling event on the sports calendar.

Whether it be through DFS, pools or auctions I plan on investing in a bunch of different forms for the tournament.

We’ve already covered the tournament extensively from every angle, but I wanted to share my final thoughts on both the betting and DFS side at Augusta. At this point the market has settled and is pretty efficient, but I still wanted to tab a few golfers I’m looking to invest in and a few that I’m looking to fade.

Golfers I’m Bullish On for the 2019 Masters

Hideki Matsuyama

  • Odds to win: 30-1
  • DFS pricing: $8,700 Draftkings; $10,600 FanDuel
  • Masters history (2014-18): T-68, 5, T-7, T-11, 19
  • Tee times: 10:09 a.m. ET Thursday; 1:05 p.m. ET Friday

Matsuyama is an elite ball striker whose main weakness is putting, which is mitigated at Augusta. (The greens are so tough at the Masters that most players struggle to one-putt, leaving players like Hideki at less of a disadvantage.) Matsuyama has good history at this course and the betting markets have moved heavily in his favor. I’m in agreement with that market movement.

Matt Kuchar

  • Odds to win: 40-1
  • DFS pricing: $7,900 DraftKings; $9,700 FanDuel
  • Masters history (2014-18): T5, T46, T24, T4, T28
  • Tee times: 1:05 p.m. ET Thursday; 9:58 a.m. ET Friday

He may be a cheapskate, but he is playing the best golf of his career. Kuchar is only $7,900 on DraftKings and will probably be the heaviest-owned player. He is a lock in cash games for me and a good player to target in matchup bets.

Jason Day

  • Odds to win: 25-1
  • DFS pricing: $9,100 Draftkings; $11,300 FanDuel
  • Masters history (2014-18): T-20, T-28, T-10, T-22, T-20
  • Tee times: 1:38 p.m. ET Thursday; 10:42 a.m. ET Friday

Predicting the health and motivation of Day is one of the biggest challenges in golf handicapping. However, we know Day is going to be motivated and, on the surface, he appears relatively healthy. Day is long, hits his irons high and is a top-five putter. He is only $9,100 on DraftKings and has had positive line movement in all betting formats.

Charles Howell III

  • Odds to win: 100-1
  • DFS pricing: $7,000 Draftkings; $8,600 FanDuel
  • Masters history (2014-18): Hasn’t played since 2012
  • Tee times: 9:47 a.m. ET Thursday; 12:43 p.m. ET Friday

Howell is my favorite cheap play on DraftKings. He has the best long-term adjusted round score relative to his price. He is 19th all-time in career earnings with over $38 million won on the PGA tour. The moment will not be too big for him and I love this quote from the Augusta native, saying that this year means more than his previous eight trips. “I appreciate the invitation a lot more than I did before,” the 39-year-old Howell said. “It’s just wonderful to be here. It’s the greatest sporting event in the world and we’re lucky it’s in Augusta.”

The Golfers I’m Fading at Augusta

Tiger Woods

  • Odds to win: 14-1
  • DFS pricing: $10,500 Draftkings; $11,100 FanDuel
  • Masters history (2014-18): N/A, T-17, N/A, N/A, T-32
  • Tee times: 11:04 a.m. ET Thursday; 1:49 p.m. ET Friday

I will be rooting for Tiger like everyone else in the world. However, casual bettors are flocking to back Tiger, and that has created value in shorting him in all formats. Sean Koerner highlighted a few specific props offering value, according to his simulations.

Danny Willett

  • Odds to win: 150-1
  • DFS pricing: $6,900 Draftkings; $8,400 FanDuel
  • Masters history (2014-18): N/A, T-38, 1, T-54, T-58
  • Tee times: 9:14 a.m. ET Thursday; 11:59 a.m. ET Friday

After winning the 2016 Masters, Willett’s game has completely fallen off a cliff. Shorting Willett is the favorite fade for my podcast partner Drew Stoltz and me.

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