2019 WGC St. Jude Picks: Our Staff’s Favorite Bets for TPC Southwind

Credit:

Steve Flynn, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Gary Woodland

  • The 2019 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational begins on Thursday, July 25 at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee.
  • Dustin Johnson (9-1) is the favorite this weekend but Rory McIlroy (10-1), Brooks Koepka (12-1) and Jon Rahm (12-1) are right behind.
  • Here are our staff's favorite bets for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

Usually the tournament after a major features a weaker field with little fanfare. That’s not the case this weekend as almost all of the big guns are in Memphis this weekend for the 2019 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational.

Dustin Johnson (9-1) is the favorite but he’s got company atop the board in Rory McIlroy (10-1), Brooks Koepka (12-1), Jon Rahm (12-1) and Justin Thomas (14-1).

There’s plenty of betting angles to consider for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Will everybody be motivated the week after the final major? How will the trip from Northern Ireland to Memphis affect the field?

There’s plenty to talk about, so let’s get to our staff’s favorite bets for this weekend’s WGC event.

Jason Sobel

The Bet: Patrick Cantlay (+155) Top-10 Finish

This is simple math, guys: If you’d bet on Cantlay to finish top-10 in his last seven individual events, you would’ve cashed more tickets than you lost.

In a small field where he only needs to finish inside the top 15 percent to claim another top-10, I like betting on his consistency to once again get it done here.

Adon S.

The Bet: Chez Reavie (+115) over Gary Woodland

Two reasons I’m taking this H2H: course history and the miracle of childbirth.

Woodland is in the field and expecting to play, but his wife is at home expecting the birth of their twins. Gary already has stated he can make it home in one hour, so he will tee it up knowing he can withdraw at any moment and make it to his wife in time.

Since this is a WGC event without a cut, Woodland only needs to hit his opening tee shot to collect a paycheck which I’m sure is the reason — and a good one — that he hasn’t withdrawn already.

Tournament head-to-head wagers are first settled on number of holes completed, so anything less than 72 holes completed by Gary is automatic win for Reavie, no matter what he shoots.

I still feel good about this bet even if Woodland completes all 72 holes. Reavie has two top-six finishes at TPC Southwind in the last two seasons and a 12th-place finish three starts ago. Woodland missed the cut in his only start in Memphis five years ago.

Both Woodland and Reavie missed the cut at Portrush last week so each should be rested, but given what is going on in Gary’s personal life and Reavies affinity for this track, I’ll happily take Chez at plus money.

Josh Perry

The Bet: Webb Simpson Top-20 Finish (Even)

Webb has been fairly consistent all year. He’s been inside the top 20 in three of his last five full-field events. This week we get him at even money in a 64-person field where the bottom 10-15 guys have very little chance of competing.

This bet is basically backing Webb to beat around 30 guys on a course that should fit his eye.

Bryan Mears

The Bet: Chez Reavie (+115) over Gary Woodland

Reavie over Woodland was already one of my favorite bets of the weekend, and that was before I read Adon’s note about the father angle. Now, I’m downright giddy I got Chez at plus money.

Based on historical data, long-term par-3 and par-4 scoring were two of the most predictive metrics of success at TPC Southwind. Chez’s marks are superior to Woodland’s in both; in fact, Gary has the fourth-worst par-3 mark over the last 75 weeks in the entire field.

Further, he’s missed two straight cuts after his U.S. Open win, and you have to wonder when motivation after getting his first major will kick back in. Maybe not quite yet.

Meanwhile, Chez has some of the best history in the field at this course, finishing in the top-12 in each of his last three visits. Like Woodland, he has two straight missed cuts after a win (his was at the Travelers in June), but I’m more confident in a rebound for him at a course that seems to catch his eye.

I’d have Reavie as an outright favorite in this matchup, so plus money is wonderful.

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