2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic Betting Preview: Which Stats Matter at El Camaleon Golf Club?

2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic Betting Preview: Which Stats Matter at El Camaleon Golf Club? article feature image

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Vaughn Taylor

After a week off on the PGA TOUR, we head to Playa Del Carmen, Mexico for the Mayakoba Golf Classic at El Camaleon Golf Club.

The Mayakoba Golf Classic has been a TOUR stop since 2007 but was an alternate event until 2014 when it was moved to November and became a primary event. Since then, the tournament has offered  full FedEx Cup points and a sizable purse, which has attracted some relatively strong fields. 

The field this year is especially strong: Justin Thomas, Daniel Berger, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Viktor Hovland, Brooks Koepka, Marc Leishman, Gary Woodland, and Will Zalatoris will all make appearances.

El Camaleon Golf Club is a 6,987 yard Par 71 featuring paspalum greens. This short coastal track has played relatively easy since the tournament's switch to November, but can get tricky if the wind doesn't cooperate.

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Past Winners at The Mayakoba Golf Classic

  • 2019: Brendon Todd (-20)
  • 2018: Matt Kuchar (-22)

(OHL Classic At Mayakoba)

  • 2017: Patton Kizzire (-19)
  • 2016: Pat Perez (-21)
  • 2015: Kevin Kisner (-18)
  • 2014: Charlie Hoffman (-17)
  • 2013: Harris English (-21)

Let's take a look at several metrics for El Camaleon Golf Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

With large, soft and slow greens at El Camaleon, players should be firing at pins. These green complexes are among the easiest on TOUR, so elite approach play will be key, as usual.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

  1. Russell Henley (+25.8) (+2000)
  2. Keegan Bradley (+24.6) (+6600)
  3. Wesley Bryan (+23.3) (+25000)
  4. Emiliano Grillo (+19.3) (+4500)
  5. Brooks Koepka (+19.1) (+1200)

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Fairways Gained

El Camaleon is a course where consistent and accurate driving is rewarded. Being a short course, golfer's can't bomb their way around the track. The two most recent winners here (Todd and Kuchar) are the models for the types of off-the-tee games that will thrive at El Camaleon.

Total Fairways Gained in past 24 rounds:

  1. Chez Reavie (+45.9) (+7000)
  2. Brendon Todd (+38.7) (+5000)
  3. Chris Baker (+37.3) (+35000)
  4. Ryan Armour (+36.8) (+25000)
  5. Henrik Norlander (+35.9) (+12500)

Strokes Gained Total: Paspalum

Paspalum greens are a different surface than what most of the TOUR players are used to. They can be bumpy and slow, and certain golfer's tend to really thrive on them year in and year out.

Comparable greens can be found at TPC Kuala Lumpur (CIMB Classic), Coco Beach Golf and Country Club (Puerto Rico Open), and Corales Golf Club (Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship).

Total Strokes Gained: Paspalum in past 24 rounds:

  1. Justin Thomas (+48.4) (+600)
  2. Pat Perez (+45.5) (+10000)
  3. Brice Garnett (+40.6) (+12500)
  4. Danny Lee (+38.8) (+12500)
  5. Russell Knox (+38.4) (+7000)

Opportunities Gained

With the soft conditions we typically see at El Camaleon, it will be important to target golfers who consistently see birdie opportunities from within 15 feet. Historically, poor putters have done fairly well on Paspalum so it wouldn't be a surprise to see a typically-strong tee to green player get hot with the flat stick this week.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds

  1. Justin Thomas (+32.8) (+600)
  2. Emiliano Grillo (+24.5) (+4500)
  3. Kyle Stanley (+23.0) (+10000)
  4. Keegan Bradley (+22.4) (+6600)
  5. Chez Reavie (+22.1) (+7000)

Greens in Regulation Gained

GIR Percentage at El Camaleon has been a key indicator of success for past winners. Statistically, GIR has also been more of a factor here than average for a PGA TOUR event. If you are missing greens in regulation this week, it will be almost impossible to keep up with the low scores on top of the leaderboard.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

  1. Will Zalatoris (+29.9) (+3300)
  2. Viktor Hovland (+29.1) (+2200)
  3. Emiliano Grillo (+27.9) (+4500)
  4. Russell Knox (+25.3) (+7000)
  5. Henrik Norlander (+24.7) (+12500)

Statistical Model

Below, I've reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25%) Fairways Gained (25%); SG: Paspalum (20%); Opportunities Gained (15%); and, GIR Gained (15%)

  1. Keegan Bradley (+6600)
  2. Chez Reavie (+7000)
  3. Russell Knox(+7000)
  4. Emiliano Grillo (+4500)
  5. Russell Henley (+2000)
  6. Justin Thomas (+600)
  7. Harold Varner III (+6600)
  8. Corey Conners (+3300)
  9. Henrik Norlander (+12500)
  10. Doug Ghim (+10000)

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