2020 Sanderson Farms Championship Betting Preview: Which Stats Matter Most This Week at the Country Club of Jackson?

2020 Sanderson Farms Championship Betting Preview: Which Stats Matter Most This Week at the Country Club of Jackson? article feature image
Credit:

Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Burns.

The PGA TOUR fall season continues, bringing us to the Country Club of Jackson in Jackson, Mississippi, for the Sanderson Farms Championship.  The course is a par 72 and 7,461 yards with Bermudagrass greens. The tournament had been an alternate field event up until the 2019-20 season when it was upgraded to a standalone event that gives the winner 500 FedEx Cup points and an invitation to the Masters.

The field is a bit better than we saw last week at Corales and has most of the same golfers with some notable additions, including Louis Oosthuizen, Sergio Garcia, Scottie Scheffler, Sungjae Im, and Brandt Snedeker.

Past Winners at Country Club of Jackson

  • 2020: Sebastian Munoz (-18)
  • 2019: Cameron Champ (-21) 
  • 2018: Ryan Armour (-19)
  • 2017: Cody Gribble (-20)
  • 2016: Peter Malnati (-18)
  • 2015: Nick Taylor (-16)

Let’s take a look at several key metrics for the Country Club of Jackson to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.


GolfBet

 


Strokes Gained: Approach

SG: Approach will be important this week as the club was renovated in 2008 and tried to imitate some classic Donald Ross course features. This means the greens will be relatively small, and finding the right level on approach shots will be crucial. The course will generate plenty of low scores, so it’s important that players give themselves plenty of birdie looks.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+20.0) (+1100)
  2. Cameron Tringale (+19.7) (+9000)
  3. Wesley Bryan (+19.1) (+15000)
  4. Jason Dufner (+19.0) (+10000)
  5. Henrik Stenson (+18.6) (+5500)

Driving Distance

The past two winners at the Country Club of Jackson were Sebastian Munoz and Cameron Champ — both guys who hit it long off of the tee. With the rough not being a major problem this week, the bomb-and-gauge approach should be very successful.

Strokes gained per drive:

  1. Brandon Hagy (+4.4)(+20000)
  2. Davis Riley (+4.4)(+20000)
  3. Will Gordon(+3.4)(+15000)
  4. Kristoffer Ventura (+3.4)(+7000)
  5. Grayson Murray (+2.6)(+50000)


SG: Par 5

Three of the four par 5s on the course should be reachable by the longer hitters, with the longest par 5 hole measuring 587 yards. Finding eagle and birdie opportunities on the Par 5s this week may be the difference in determining a winner.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

  1. Kristoffer Ventura (+14.3)(+7000)
  2. Camilo Villegas (+13.2)(+35000)
  3. Corey Conners (+12.5)(+3300)
  4. Grayson Murray (+12.4)(+50000)
  5. Robby Shelton (+11.4)(+20000)

SG: Putting (Bermudagrass greens)

Historically, SG: Putting at the Sanderson Farms Championship has weighed as the most indicative score of the tournament winner. While this isn’t necessarily rare in PGA TOUR tournaments, it was 10% more important at Country Club of Jackson than the average course on tour. Whoever wins this week will need to catch a hot putter, so the best putters on Bermuda should have the best chance to do that.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

  1. Patton Kizzire (+26.7)(+12500)
  2. Denny McCarthy (+23.1)(+5500)
  3. Patrick Rodgers (+20.1)(+6600)
  4. Charl Schwartzel (+18.5)(+9000)
  5. Beau Hossler (+17.3)(+12500)

SG: Off the Tee

Although I already used driving distance, I think putting an emphasis on who the best drivers of the golf ball are is a smart strategy. This stat has driving accuracy built into it, and although the fairways are relatively easy to hit at the Country Club of Jackson, long and straight is always a big advantage.  I am looking for the golfers who are going to have the shortest approach shots and are coming in from the fairway.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

  1. Corey Conners (+16.3)(+3300)
  2. Sergio Garcia (+16.3)(+6600)
  3. Jhonattan Vegas (+15.2)(+9000)
  4. Will Gordon (+14.5)(+15000)
  5. Scottie Scheffler (+13.3)(+1100)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: APP (23%) SG: OTT: (23%), Driving Distance (18%), SG: Par 5 (18%), SG: Putting (Bermuda) 18%.

    1. Sam Burns (+3300)
    2. Cameron Davis (+6000)
    3. Kristoffer Ventura (+7000)
    4. Dylan Frittelli (+4000)
    5. Scottie Scheffler (+1100)
    6. Sungjae Im (+1400)
    7. Sergio Garcia (+6600)
    8. Adam Schenk (+6600)
    9. Corey Conners (+3300)
    10. Louis Oosthuizen (+1400)

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