2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions Betting Preview: Favorites Tend To Crush at Kapalua

2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions Betting Preview: Favorites Tend To Crush at Kapalua article feature image
Credit:

Dean Mouhtrapoulos, Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Reed

  • The 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions kicks off the new year for the PGA Tour.
  • Favorites have had a lot of success at Kapalua, so Joshua Perry offers advice on which chalky player could be worth a play.
  • Perry also makes a case for a top-10 bet on an in-form player.

After a month off, the PGA Tour resumes this weekend with the Tournament of Champions in Hawaii.

We’ll see 34 of the 2019 champions in action this week, but many of the big names chose to skip Kapalua this year, leaving us will a weaker field at the top than normal. Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson Francesco Molinari, Shane Lowry and Justin Rose are all absent this week.

Gary Woodland will be the only major champion from the past year making the trip. He’ll be joined by Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay at the top of the odds.

The Course

The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort plays host to this event. It’s a long 7,500 yard par 73, but it boasts some of the widest fairways on tour to give the more inaccurate drivers a bit of an advantage.


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Despite the length, we’ve seen shorter hitters play well here, so it’s not fair to say this is solely a bombers’ course. Patrick Reed, Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Steve Stricker all have wins here despite not being all that long off the tee.

Since everyone tends to be in the fairway, this tournament becomes a birdie fest for those dialed in with the irons.

If there’s no wind, the winning score can reach 30-under par.

The Field

Favorites tend to succeed at this tournament. You need to go all the way back to 2011 (Jonathan Byrd) to find a winner who teed off longer than 25-1. There are eight players under +2500 this week.

Jon Rahm (+400) and Justin Thomas (+500) top the board, and both are basically perfect fits for this course and real threats to wreck my card. Thomas already has a win here and Rahm was second two years ago. Below them, we have the past two champs, Xander Schauffele (+700) and Dustin Johnson (+1000). Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed, Gary Woodland and Rickie Fowler round out this group in the +1200 to +1600 range.

Tournament of Champions Picks

With the past eight winners coming from this odds range, I’ll start my card here with Reed at +1400.

Reed has a win and a runner-up finish in his five starts here. He’s been playing well all fall and just missed a playoff at the Hero World Challenge thanks in large part to his infamous penalty in the waste bunker.

He took some heat for poor play at the Presidents Cup, but the alternate shot format is tough because of how infrequently the players see it and he outplayed his four-ball partner Webb Simpson in both matches. Reed closed strong in Australia with a decisive win over CT Pan to help spark a US comeback.

I’ll back Reed to play well again here. His game should be in good form and this is a course that will hide his inaccuracy off the tee and plays more to his short game strengths.

That will be my only outright bet for the week, but I’ll tack on a Brendon Todd top 10 play at +225 for obvious reasons.

He’s just been playing so well all fall and has an eighth-place finish here in his only other appearance. His wins have come in much weaker fields, but the bottom half of this tournament isn’t as strong as we’d think considering they’re all champions from last season.

I think Todd can combine that current form up with a course he should be comfortable on and put up another decent result.

The TOC Card

  • Patrick Reed +1400/+225 top 5 (2.36 units)
  • Brendon Todd +225 Top 10  (1 unit)

Total Stake: 5.72 units

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