2021 BMW Championship Matchups Picks & Predictions: 3 Bets to Find Value On
Getty Images. Pictured: Joaquin Niemann (left), Collin Morikawa (center) and Charley Hoffman.
Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.
The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I’ve picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-2021 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum in this article.
Below, I have outlined the matchups that have shown the most value in my simulations this week at Caves Valley for the BMW Championship. For every matchup I will provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at and why I believe it is a profitable bet.
Let’s get to it!
Joaquin Niemann -125 over Kevin Na (DraftKings)
My line: Niemann -164
Caves Valley is set to play at 7,542 yards this week. This is going to be a tough test of golf that by all accounts, will favor the bombers.
Averaging nearly 311 yards off the tee and ranking 17th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee in this field over the last 24 rounds, Niemann is well equipped to tackle this golf course. Kevin Na on the other hand, ranks 177th on tour in driving distance with an average of 287.9 yards, and he ranks 63rd out of 69 players in this field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee over the last 24 rounds.
Na will need to continue his unsustainable run of magic on and around the greens in order to compete this week.
My model is showing an edge of 8.6% on this line as it currently stands. Fire up Niemann with confidence in this matchup.
Collin Morikawa -115 over Jordan Spieth (DraftKings)
My line: Morikawa -159
There’s no other way to spin it: Jordan Spieth looked down right lost in his final round at the Northern Trust last week. That is two events in a row during which he has lost strokes to the field both off the tee and on approach. I don’t like the way his game is trending at the moment and think it’s an excellent chance to take advantage of a line I believe is mispriced.
Let’s side aside Spieth’s recent struggles for a second and take a look at a larger sample size of data. Over the last 100 tracked rounds, Morikawa ranks 18th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and first in Strokes Gained: Approach, while Spieth ranks 64th and 24th in those two categories over that length of time. This trend continues in every sample size of data that is out there.
Simply put, Morikawa is just a better overall player than Jordan Spieth is. It’s pretty clear why my simulation is giving such an edge to Morikawa in this matchup.
I understand the concerns with Morikawa’s back, but the missed cut last week gave him three extra days to get the treatment he needed. I’ll bet on the consistent ball striker over the leader in Strokes Gained: Luck, and I hope to fade Spieth’s patented barrage of hole outs from off the green this week.
Charley Hoffman -112 over Brian Harman (FanDuel)
My line: Hoffman -154
This is another opportunity to jump on a matchup that features a consistent ball striker against a struggling, shorter hitter.
Over Harman’s last three events, he has lost 9.4 strokes on approach, 3.0 strokes off the tee and 2.8 strokes putting. Averaging only 291 yards off the tee this season, it’s tough to imagine this course being a “get right” spot for Harman.
Hoffman is in a much better position to succeed this week, given his length off the tee (306.5 yd average) and consistently positive ball-striking performances. My simulation makes this line -154, giving us an edge of 8.5%. I feel good backing Hoffman in this matchup.