2021 Honda Classic Picks: Our Favorite Prop Bets at PGA National
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Jim Furyk
Every golf tournament is random. Every golf tournament has an element of chaos. But the way things are lining up for this week’s Honda Classic, hoo boy.
Not only is PGA National known as one of the toughest courses on TOUR, but Mother Nature also figures to play a pretty big role this weekend as there is some serious wind in the forecast in Palm Beach Gardens. A difficult track, gusty weather and a wide-open field should make the Honda Classic a lot of fun for bettors.
Here are our favorite prop bets for the 2021 Honda Classic:
Matt Wallace Top-10 Finish (+600)
Strong winds? Tough conditions? That’s Matt Wallace’s music. OK, so maybe he’s no Matt Fitzpatrick when it comes to having his best stuff when it’s playing the hardest, but this week should be right up Wallace’s alley, as he already owns a T-20 in two career starts, and with very few big-name players in the field, he should enter this week with the confidence of knowing he’s one of the bigger talents here.
At 55th in the world, he’s the eighth-highest ranked player at the Honda, but has just the 19th-shortest odds, which makes him a nice value.
Kyoung-hoon Lee Top-10 Finish (+750)
One player that is sticking out to me this week in K.H. Lee. The South Korean quietly made his way around at TPC Sawgrass, gaining 6.8 strokes on that elite field with his ball-striking, but his short game left a bit to be desired. However, I would expect that to bounce back this week at the Honda as he is normally a very good player around the greens.
Lee has played well to start the year, but really only has one good result to show for it as he hasn’t quite put it all together at the same time outside of the Waste Management Phoenix Open. I expect him to be a big beneficiary of the soft field at the Honda this week, and give himself a chance for another strong finish at a place he already has one Top 10.
Jim Furyk Top-10 Finish (+1100)
While Jim Furyk can’t compete on a weekly basis on TOUR anymore, The Honda Classic is one of the few that suits his game.
It’ll be important to stay out of trouble this week and Furyk excels in that regard, ranking first in the field in Fairways Gained in his past 24, 36, and 50 rounds. His iron play has also been sharp as he has gained over 3 strokes on approach in both of his past two starts on TOUR. Bermuda is also Furyk’s best putting surface and he should be able to make some clutch par putts on this difficult track.
Jim has also had some recent Florida success including an impressive 2019 stretch where he finished 9th at The Honda Classic, 2nd at THE PLAYERS Championship and 18th at The Valspar Championship in three consecutive weeks.
Furyk may not be able to keep up with the elite golfers on TOUR anymore but he can compete in this weaker field in an event where the winning score will be in the single digits under par.
Wesley Bryan Top-30 Finish (+275)
Bryan does not play too often, but when he does he’s been very good since returning from his injury woes. He ranks 17th in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green and 11th in total strokes gained over his 16 rounds. He also has a fourth-place finish at this event back in 2017, so we’ve seen him flash significant upside.
If Bryan makes the cut he’s extremely live to finish in the top 30 and at close to 3/1 I like that quite a bit.
Luke Donald Top-40 Finish (+440)
After nailing the four-man parlay at +458 for THE PLAYERS, I wanted seconds, but there’s nothing tantalizing at this week’s buffet. So, like the others here, I’ve retreated to a finishing position.
Ignore Donald’s form … please. The all-time tournament earnings leader is 8-for-9 at PGA National with five top-11 finishes among six top 40s. He was T11 last year. It’s a home-away-from-home game on a track that won’t eat him alive and where par is his pal.
If you’re scared, pivot to Jason Dufner for a top 30. He’s also at +440 at FanDuel. Dufner is perfect in 11 trips with six top 30s, three of which since 2017.