2021 RBC Heritage Picks: Our Best Outright Bets at Harbour Town Including Brian Harman & Corey Conners
Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Paul Casey
- Just because it's not the Masters, doesn't mean the winnings spend any differently.
- See who are among GolfBet's favorite outright bets at the 2021 RBC Heritage.
It’s always sad to leave Augusta National but if you’re a part of the GolfBet community you know our credo: “The money you win on the John Deere Classic is just as green as the cash you win on the Masters.”
With those words ringing in our head, we move on to the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town. Oftentimes the field for the tournament right after a major is lacking starpower but plenty of the TOUR’s biggest names have made their way to Harbour Town. Dustin Johnson is the favorite, Webb Simpson is right behind him and Will Zalatoris is lurking around +2500.
Check out our favorite outright bets for the 2021 RBC Heritage:
Brian Harman (+3000)
In my betting guide this week, I took you through research to prove that Masters success very rarely translates into RBC Heritage success, then I go and do a stupid thing like pick a guy who enjoyed Masters success as my favorite outright this week.
Maybe I’m just hoping the law of averages evens things out, as Harman was the last man to get an invitation into the Masters field, then parlayed it into a share of 12th place and a return invitation next year. At Harbour Town, he’s only posted a pair of top-10 finishes in 11 previous starts, but I still think this course suits his game, considering it’s short and tight and small green complexes lead to a priority on the wedge game. Harman is as deadly as anyone from around the greens.
Let’s hope that running hot means more to him this week than it has for other players in this situation in the past.
Si Woo Kim (+4000)
I don’t bet Si Woo Kim too often, but I’m going to start my card with him this week. Kim has come close here in the past (he lost a playoff in 2018) and he’s really got his irons in check over the last few weeks.
He struck the ball great at Augusta en route to a 12th-place finish.
Charley Hoffman (+5000)
I was caught between Charley Hoffman and Paul Casey for my favorite outright bet. I think they are both at numbers that are too long for their talent and form, but my top pick of those two is with Hoffman, who came up just short of his last tournament effort to gain entry to The Masters as Jordan Spieth outlasted him down the stretch on Sunday at the Valero.
Hoffman was arguably the best player in that field over the final 54 holes, but unfortunately dug himself too big of a hole when he went 4-over in the opening round. I really like the form he is showing, especially with his irons coming into this week at Harbour Town. Hoffman has gained 4.8 strokes or more on approach in each of his last four measured tournaments, and that is my main statistical focus heading into a week with some of the smallest greens on TOUR.
I’ll ride with Hoffman at a place he has multiple top-10 finishes in his career, and a skillset to fit any windy weather that this course may bring throughout the week.
Paul Casey (+3000)
In his past 24 rounds, Paul Casey ranks sixth in the field in Greens in Regulations: Gained, which is a good sign heading to Harbour Town since the formula to win here is to keep the ball in the fairway and consistently find the green on approach shots.
Casey isn’t the longest golfer off of the tee, but that won’t have much of an impact this week. The Englishman thrives at Pete Dye tracks, raking fifth in the field in his past 24 rounds in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye designs.
In addition to the tricky green complexes at Harbour Town, another potential factor is wind. With fifteen victories on the European Tour, the veteran is no stranger to coastal windy conditions which should give him an advantage should weather become an obstacle.
Casey has been trending towards a win in 2021 and the RBC Heritage is an ideal fit for him to add a fourth win to his PGA TOUR resume.
Patrick Cantlay (+1700)
I am all over Cantlay this week in all formats. We should expect a big bounce-back week from the No. 10 player in the world after the massive letdown at Augusta. There’s no better place to start than Harbour Town, where in three career starts the California native has gone T-3, T-7, T-3.
Up until this recent streak of missed cuts at THE PLAYERS and Masters, Cantlay had been one of the most consistent cut makers on PGA TOUR, missing just five since 2017.
Dustin Johnson has been out of sorts for a few weeks now and Webb Simpson, the defending champion at this event, is coming off four grueling rounds at Augusta. Getting Cantlay here at 17/1 at a course he obviously fancies presents serious value.
If we take it back a little, he ranks No. 2 in this field in total strokes gained over his previous 36 rounds. It’s only a matter of time before Cantlay finds his game again and I’ll take my chances that it’s this week when plenty of people are off him.
Corey Conners (+3400)
This week my course regression model is placing a heavy emphasis on ball-striking, which makes sense given the smaller green complexes and tree-lined fairways that Harbour Town possesses.
Over the last 24 rounds, Corey Conners ranks 1st in this field in SG: Ball-Striking. As a bonus, he’s caught a hot putter of late ranking 16th in SG: Putting over the last 12 rounds.
Coming off three top-10 finishes in his last 4 starts, there’s value to be had on Conners this week at +3400.