WGC-FedEx St. Jude Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: 3 Golfers With Value at TPC Southwind
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Scottie Scheffler.
After a week off for the Olympics in Tokyo, the PGA TOUR is reaching the home stretch of the season.
The TOUR returns for the WGC FedEx St. Jude Classic at TPC Southwind for what will be the last time many of the top names compete prior to the FedEx Cup playoffs.
Let's jump in.
The Course
TPC Southwind is still relatively new as far as hosting the WGC event, having taken over in 2019, but it’s been a staple on the TOUR after holding the St. Jude Classic for three decades.
The course measures 7,244 yards for a par 70 and can play fairly tough at times with water in play on about half the holes.
We tend to see the same people pop up on the leaderboard each year here. Dustin Johnson (2012 and '18 and Daniel Berger ('16-17) both have won twice at Southwind. And prior to Brooks Koepka’s win in 2019, he had two other top-three finishes.
Even the defending champ Justin Thomas had a solid 12th the year prior to coming out with his win.
The Favorites
Brooks Koepka opens at the top for the first time in a while at +1100 with Collin Morikawa not far behind at +1200. No surprise that Koepka leads the way here given his success. This should also be a great spot for Morikawa given the emphasis this course puts on the approach game. I imagine he'll win on this course eventually, but it'll be interesting to see how everyone making the trip back from Japan fairs this week, especially someone like Morikawa who was in the mix late and a part of that massive bronze medal playoff.
Jordan Spieth and Xander Schauffele are next in line at +1400. Schauffele is fresh off that gold medal win heading to another no-cut event that weirdly seems to be his specialty. Spieth will be interesting to watch this week, he's never really popped up here, but the form is much better this time.
Justin Thomas is right behind them at +1600 with Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy close behind at +1800. Thomas obviously won here, but the ball striking hasn't been nearly at his peak to make up for some woes on the green. DJ has started to drift down the board with some mediocre results, but he's never really that far off and could pop up on a course he likes.
The Mid-Tier
We'll start here with Scottie Scheffler at +3100 on FanDuel. He struck the ball well here last year, but last three strokes on the green, which obviously held him back. But the form is great heading into this event and he seems to play better in these strong fields. He's racked up top 10s in four of his last five starts on TOUR, including three of those in majors. He's close to breaking through it seems, but he's also teetering on that Tony Finau territory where he's always in contention but doesn't actually win.
I'll also be going back to Harris English at +5000 on bet365. English came through for us at the Travelers and won on this course in 2013, so it's a place he knows well. He's only played The Open since his win five weeks ago, but he's shown this year that the game is where it needs to be to compete in these top-end fields.
I'm also going to Jason Kokrak at +6600 on bet365. Like English, he's in the middle of the best year of his career, especially on the greens. In his last two trips to TPC Southwind, he struck the ball well but lost a little over 11 strokes combined with the short game. With that part of the game in much better shape this year, I'll take a chance he wins again at that price.
The Longshots
In the WGCs, I usually steer clear of the triple digits and opt for one player closer to the top like I did with Scheffler this week.
Of the guys down here, Stewart Cink of some interest for a top-10 or 20 play. He finished inside the top 10 in his last two starts on the course. That was prior to it being switched to a WGC event, but those results showed that he's capable of putting together a good result here and should serve him well in this limited field.
The WGC FedEx St. Jude card
- Scottie Scheffler +3100 (1.06 units)
- Harris English +5000 (.66 units)
- Jason Kokrak +6600 (.5 units)
Total Stake: 2.22 units
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