2022 BMW Championship Odds & Predictions: 2 Betting Picks & DFS Target
Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Jon Rahm
Read more of Derek’s content at RotoGrinders.
Before starting this weekly article, I had a total of zero outright winners on the season. I was constantly betting on golfers that were finishing in the top five, but none of them could cross the finish line for me.
While it’s surely coincidental, I want to think that starting this article has brought some good luck to my picks. Over the last three months, we have hit four outright winners:
- Matt Fitzpatrick at the U.S. Open
- J.T. Poston at the John Deere Classic
- Cameron Smith at the Open Championship
- Will Zalatoris at the FedEx St. Jude Championship
Willy Z is one of the easiest golfers to root for on TOUR, especially after having so many heartbreaks over the last two seasons. While Sunday nearly gave me a heart attack, it felt great to hold an outright ticket in his first PGA TOUR victory.
We’ll see if he can keep it going this week at the BMW Championship.
This event rotates venues each year, and for the first time ever, we get to see Wilmington Country Club host a professional golf event. The course will play as a par 71 that measures 7,543 yards.
With no course history or data to work with, we don’t know exactly how it’s going to play. Here’s what we do know:
- There are three long par 4s and three long par 5s.
- There are eight short par 4s.
- The fairways and greens both feature bentgrass.
- The rough could be upwards of four inches thick.
- Bunkers surround many of the fairways and greens.
- The greens are massive in size (8,100 square feet on average).
- There are plenty of elevation changes.
- Water is in play on four of the holes.
2022 BMW Championship Best Bets
Jon Rahm +1400 (DraftKings)
There are so many names bunched up at the top of the odds board, but Rahm stuck out to me as my favorite. He gained eight strokes tee-to-green at TPC Southwind last week, which was his best outing since his win in Mexico earlier this year.
His game hasn’t been in perfect shape, but his biggest weakness has been around the green. Given the fact that he’s first on tour in greens in regulation, and that the greens are massive here, perhaps we won’t have to worry about him scrambling.
He seems to be in a very good place mentally, and I love his chances next week at East Lake.
Despite sitting at 14th in the standings right now, he’s my pick to win the FedEx Cup this year.
Cameron Young +2800 (BetMGM)
Everyone bet Zalatoris last week, and we all got to rejoice together on Twitter after that incredible playoff. Everyone is betting Young this week, so we might as well run back the fun on Sunday night.
Young finished T31 last week, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. He gained nine strokes ball striking, but lost six strokes with his short game. We shouldn’t expect that to happen again, as he has a very solid short game.
He will likely be inspired by watching his friend get his first win last week, and he’s shown an ability to contend at the highest level.
Favorite DFS Value
Mito Pereira $7,100 DraftKings / $8,200 FanDuel
I’m playing far too much Mito in DFS, and I am also betting on him to finish in the top 10. His form over the last couple of months isn’t great, but losing the PGA Championship like he did would take anyone a while to get over.
He made the cut last week and gained 3.5 strokes on approach. If we zoom out and look at his stats over the last six months, he’s top-15 in this field in good drive percentage, Strokes Gained: Approach and greens in regulation.
Hopefully he found something last week in Memphis and can build on that this week.
Best of luck everyone, and let’s stay hot!
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