2022 Cadence Bank Houston Open Updated Odds & Expert Picks: 6 Best Bets for Jason Day, Denny McCarthy, Taylor Montgomery & More
Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Jason Day
- The PGA TOUR heads to Texas for the Cadence Bank Houston Open.
- Our experts have six best bets, and two of them are targeting the same former No. 1 player in the world.
- Check out their picks and analysis below.
Click arrow to expand 2022 Cadence Bank Houston Open odds via BetMGM
|Si Woo Kim||+5000|
|Byeong Hun An||+15000|
|Erik van Rooyen||+15000|
|Paul Haley II||+30000|
The PGA TOUR returns to the United States this week for the Cadence Bank Houston Open. Three of the top-15 players in the Official World Golf Rankings are in the field this week at Memorial Park Golf Course, including tournament favorite and native Texan Scottie Scheffler, who can regain the top spot in the OWGR with a win.
Our analysts have six best bets, including two outright picks on the same player to return to the winner’s circle on TOUR. Check out their picks and analysis below.
Taylor Pendrith +5000 (BetMGM)
Jason Sobel: It’s certainly possible that one of the top players in this field — Scottie Scheffler (+550), Sam Burns (+1200), Tony Finau (+1600) and to an extent, Aaron Wise (+1600) — will claim this title, as a 19th hole bar bet of, “Would you take these four or the field?” potentially has some merit.
Yes, the oddsmakers have correctly identified the cream of this crop, and while a full fade of these players feels a bit foolish, there exists plenty of value for those who own enough willpower.
I’ll start my card with one of the more underrated drivers around in Pendrith, who currently ranks 11th in total driving. The sturdy Canadian was on a serious roll last summer before being named to the International team for the Presidents Cup.
Pendrith returned from a four-month injury layoff to post five results of 13th or better in his final six starts of the season.
That momentum has quelled a bit here in the fall, with finishes outside of the top 40 in each of his starts, but he’s a player I like over the long term and one with an ability to go low.
This should be a week more for sprinkling outrights as opposed to the single-basket strategy, and I’ll start my sprinkle with Pendrith’s potential.
Denny McCarthy +4000 (BetMGM)
Chris Murphy: The last time we saw Denny McCarthy, he was the low man on the odds board at the Bermuda Championship. While he didn’t come through for his maiden victory, he was right there throughout the week and hit the ball really well. He fell short, finishing T6, but now he comes to another course that should be a nice fit for his game at much more palatable odds.
McCarthy has made the cut in each of his last four trips to Memorial Park, with finishes of T11 and T9 in two of his last three years. He is consistently one of the best putters on TOUR, and Bermudagrass is his favorite putting surface.
This is a week where the flatstick will be the important club in the winner’s bag, and with McCarthy’s combination of solid recent play and putting upside, I love his value at +4000 on BetMGM.
Jason Day +2800 (BetMGM)
Matt Vincenzi: I’ve been on Jason Day for his last few starts, and he’s done nothing that gives me any reason to jump off now. In fact, his play has been quite encouraging. He’s finished T8, T11 and T21 in his past three starts, and seven of his past eight rounds have been in the 60s. His opening round at El Camaleón (73) last week was the outlier and proved to be too much to overcome. He responded by shooting 64, 67 and 66 over the next three rounds.
Day’s betting odds have been slashed this week, and I believe it’s for good reason. Memorial Park should be a much better fit for Day’s skillset, and the winning scores have been -10 and -13 in the two events at the course. The difficult conditions should give the 34-year-old an advantage, especially with his around the green prowess being such a big factor.
In Day’s first start at Memorial Park, he finished in a tie for seventh. The former world No. 1 is finally showing that he’s healthy and can play consistently from week to week. He’s worth one more shot this week in Houston.
Davis Riley -111 Over Mackenzie Hughes (BetMGM)
Spencer Aguiar: Before we get into this play, I want to mention that we only have about a 3% implied probability edge. That means that anything up to -124 would still show value, but it is less than what I typically need for one of these wagers when I release it as my “play of the week.”
Honestly, I find this to be an extremely challenging betting board from top to bottom because of overcorrections in the market, but it does feel like a spot where Mackenzie Hughes is getting way too much course history and current form baked into his market projection.
Sure, the recent run needs to be accounted for when we handicap what to expect, but books seem to have overreacted to his current outlook, giving us a chance to grab a golfer at a discount like Davis Riley, who graded as a top-25 candidate in all three iterations of my model.
Hughes’ recent iron play could prove to be a problem when we look at his 90th-place mark for Weighted Proximity, and it doesn’t help that his Total Driving ranks 102nd in this field when I recalculated the data to fit Memorial Park.
Some users will see the back-to-back top-30 finishes here and instantly think he is safe for another quality effort, but this week’s venue has some of the least predictable rollover metrics when we dive into yearly production at the track.
Jason Day +2800 (BetMGM)
Derek Farnsworth: The thought of betting Day at this number a couple of months ago would have been laughable, but after finishes of T8, T11 and T21 in the swing season, here we are. The PGA TOUR veteran seems poised for a nice bounce-back season.
More important than the high finishes are the underlying metrics – he gained 9.8 strokes ball striking at the Shriners and 5.8 strokes ball striking at THE CJ CUP. We don’t have ShotLink data from last week’s event in Mexico, but he was near the top of the field in old school ball striking numbers (total driving + greens in regulation).
Day has always had one of the best short games on TOUR. He has great feel around the greens, and at his peak, he was the best putter in the world. If this recent ball striking is any indication of what we can expect moving forward, it’s likely a matter of when and not if he finds himself back in the winner’s circle.
I like Day on courses with generous fairways, and I like Day on Bermudagrass greens. Memorial Park Golf Course has both of those, and it’s worth noting that day is two-for-two here with a seventh-place finish in 2020.
Taylor Montgomery +2700 (FanDuel)
Landon Silinsky: In his short PGA TOUR career, Taylor Montgomery has finished solo third, T9, T15, T13 and T10 in his five starts. During this stretch, which dates back to the Fortinet Championship in mid-September, he ranks No. 1 in this field in Total Strokes Gained.
A lot of this has to do with his absurd putting, as he ranks No. 1 in SG: Putting in this time frame while gaining more than 0.3 strokes per round more than Maverick McNealy, who ranks second.
So far on the young season, Montgomery ranks No. 1 in Birdie or Better Percentage of anyone with eight or more rounds played. This rookie is a phenom and a scoring machine, and I am done fading him.
His only bugaboo has been his shoddy approach play, but if you’re looking for a silver lining, his last measured round – which was at THE CJ CUP – he gained 2.29 strokes on approach, which was the most he’s ever gained on TOUR thus far.
With the way every other part of his game is clicking, it would shock noone to see him pick up his first career victory at Memorial Park, much like Carlos Ortiz did a couple years back.