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2022 Cadence Bank Houston Odds, Open Expert Picks & Preview: Taylor Pendrith, Dean Burmester & Jason Day Fit Memorial Park Golf Course

2022 Cadence Bank Houston Odds, Open Expert Picks & Preview: Taylor Pendrith, Dean Burmester & Jason Day Fit Memorial Park Golf Course article feature image
Credit:

Via Ben Jared/Getty Images. Pictured: Taylor Pendrith of Canada plays the ninth green during the final round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club on July 31, 2022 in Detroit, Michigan.

  • The PGA TOUR returns to Houston at Memorial Park Golf Course this week.
  • Which players combine the best course fits and betting value?
  • Matt Vincenzi breaks down his model and best bets below.
Click arrow to expand 2022 Cadence Bank Houston Open odds via BetMGM
Player Name Odds
Scottie Scheffler +600
Sam Burns +1400
Aaron Wise +1800
Tony Finau +1800
Hideki Matsuyama +2500
Maverick McNealy +2500
Russell Henley +2500
Taylor Montgomery +2500
Jason Day +2800
Davis Riley +4000
Denny McCarthy +4000
Joel Dahmen +4000
Sahith Theegala +4000
Alex Noren +5000
Dean Burmester +5000
Emiliano Grillo +5000
Keith Mitchell +5000
Mackenzie Hughes +5000
Matthew NeSmith +5000
Patrick Rodgers +5000
Si Woo Kim +5000
Taylor Pendrith +5000
Andrew Putnam +6000
Adam Hadwin +6600
Adam Long +6600
Brandon Wu +6600
Taylor Moore +6600
Will Gordon +6600
Aaron Rai +6600
Harris English +6600
Lee Hodges +6600
Sebastian Munoz +6600
Sepp Straka +6600
Wyndham Clark +6600
Adam Schenk +8000
Alex Smalley +8000
Brendan Steele +8000
Justin Lower +8000
Luke List +8000
Danny Willett +9000
David Lipsky +9000
Davis Thompson +9000
Martin Laird +9000
Cameron Champ +10000
Charley Hoffman +10000
Francesco Molinari +10000
Gary Woodland +10000
Justin Rose +10000
Justin Suh +10000
Mark Hubbard +10000
Robby Shelton +10000
Russell Knox +10000
Ryan Palmer +10000
Stephan Jaeger +10000
Beau Hossler +12500
David Lingmerth +12500
Dylan Frittelli +12500
Henrik Norlander +12500
Nick Taylor +12500
Ryan Armour +12500
S.H. Kim +12500
Adam Svensson +15000
Ben Griffin +15000
Byeong Hun An +15000
Chesson Hadley +15000
Erik van Rooyen +15000
John Huh +15000
Kevin Streelman +15000
Matt Wallace +15000
Matthias Schwab +15000
Scott Piercy +15000
Trey Mullinax +15000
Zecheng Dou +15000
Austin Smotherman +17500
Robert Streb +17500
Stewart Cink +17500
Austin Cook +20000
Austin Eckroat +20000
Ben Taylor +20000
Callum Tarren +20000
Carl Yuan +20000
Garrick Higgo +20000
James Hahn +20000
Johannes Veerman +20000
Joseph Bramlett +20000
Kramer Hickok +20000
Michael Gligic +20000
MJ Daffue +20000
Doc Redman +25000
Harry Hall +25000
Peter Malnati +25000
Tyler Duncan +25000
Zach Johnson +25000
Ben Martin +30000
Danny Lee +30000
Eric Cole +30000
Kevin Tway +30000
Paul Haley II +30000
Philip Knowles +30000
Chad Ramey +35000
Chris Stroud +35000
Erik Barnes +35000
Kelly Kraft +35000
Nick Watney +35000
Zac Blair +35000
Carson Young +40000
Jimmy Walker +40000
Max McGreevy +40000
Nico Echavarria +40000
Travis Vick +40000
Augusto Nunez +50000
Brandon Matthews +50000
Brent Grant +50000
Cole Hammer +50000
Jim Herman +50000
Kyle Westmoreland +50000
Michael Kim +50000
Richy Werenski +50000
Tyson Alexander +50000
Scott Harrington +50000
Kevin Roy +50000
Seung-Yul Noh +50000
Zack Fischer +50000
Jason Dufner +75000
Ryan Brehm +75000
Tano Goya +75000
Anders Albertson +75000
Ben Kern +100000
Walker Lee +100000
Trevor Werbylo +100000
Lukas Euler +100000
Sean Jacklin +100000

As we return to the land of the shot tracker, the PGA TOUR makes its way to Houston to play the 2022 Cadence Bank Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the third consecutive year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course will be fairly thick rough and tightly mowed runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5s and five Par 3s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, Tony Finau, Jason Day and Hideki Matsuyama.

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Past Winners at The Houston Open

  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)
  • 2019: Lanto Griffin (-14)
  • 2018: Ian Poulter (-19)
  • 2017: Russell Henley (-20)
  • 2016: Jim Herman (-15)
  • 2015: J.B. Holmes (-16)

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

  1. Adam Schenk (+19.8) (+8000)
  2. Tony Finau (+19.7) (+1600)
  3. Matthew NeSmith (+17.8) (+4000)
  4. Mark Hubbard (+17.4) (+13000)
  5. Brendan Steele (+16.7) (+10000)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in past 24 rounds:

  1. Taylor Pendrith (+20.2) (+5000)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+19.1) (+650) 
  3. Keith Mitchell (+18.5) (+5000)
  4. Brendan Steele (+15.8) (+10000)
  5. Taylor Montgomery (+15.1) (+2000)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory last season.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) past 24 rounds:

  1. Alex Noren (+18.8) (+8000)
  2. Brendon Todd (+17.7) (N/A – withdrew)
  3. Denny McCarthy (+16.7) (+3500)
  4. Peter Malnati (+15.6) (+15000)
  5. Ben Taylor (+14.5) (+20000)


Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up and downs around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scott Piercy (+13.4) (+20000)
  2. Vincent Whaley (+13.0) (N/A – withdrew)
  3. Francesco Molinari (+11.8) (+8000)
  4. Stephan Jaeger (+11.1) (+10000)
  5. Andrew Putnam (+10.5) (+4000)

Strokes Gained: Par 5

Over the past few years, Strokes Gained: Par 5 has rated out as the most important statistic at Memorial Park.

Total strokes gained in Strokes Gained: Par 5 in past 24 rounds:

  1. Kyle Westmoreland (+18.1) (+50000)
  2. Patrick Rodgers (+14.6) (+7000)
  3. Stephan Jaeger (+14.5) (+10000)
  4. Aaron Wise (+14.1) (+1600)
  5. Cameron Champ (+12.1) (+10000)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25%) SG: OTT (25%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (16.7%); SG: Par 5 (16.7); and, SG: ARG (16.7%)

  1. Tony Finau (+1600)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+650)
  3. Matthew NeSmith (+4000)
  4. Robert Streb (+15000)
  5. Taylor Pendrith (+5000)
  6. Jason Day (+3300)
  7. Davis Thompson (+10000)
  8. Aaron Wise (+1600)
  9. Stephan Jaeger (+10000)
  10. Hideki Matsuyama (+2200)

2022 Cadence Bank Houston Open Best Bets

Jason Day +3300 (Caesars)

I’ve been on Jason Day for his last few starts, and he’s done nothing that gives me any reason to jump off now. In fact, his play has been quite encouraging. He’s finished eighth, 11th and 21st in his past three starts, and seven of his past eight rounds have been in the 60s. His opening round at El Camaleón (73) last week was the outlier and proved to be too much to overcome. He responded by shooting 64, 67 and 66 over the next three rounds. 

Day’s betting odds have been slashed this week, and I believe it’s for good reason. Memorial Park should be a much better fit for Day’s skillset, and the winning scores have been -10 and -13 in the two events at the course. The difficult conditions should give the 34-year-old an advantage, especially with his around the green prowess being such a big factor.

In Day’s first start at Memorial Park, he finished in a tie for seventh. The former world No. 1 is finally showing that he’s healthy and can play consistently from week to week. He’s worth one more shot this week in Houston.

Taylor Pendrith +5000 (bet365)

I have some concerns about Taylor Pendrith’s short game and putting at Memorial Park, but I believe this number is too big for his talent. Additionally, there are multiple ways to get it done at the course, and players like Dustin Johnson and Sam Burns have used their power to contend in the event.

Despite struggling in some other areas, Pendrith is still absolutely elite off the tee. He’s gained strokes on the field in the category in 10 consecutive events and ranks third in the field in his past 24 rounds. He also ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, so it’s certainly possible the Canadian can overcome his poor short game and ball strike his way to victory.

Dean Burmester +8000 (Caesars)

Although he may be lesser known due to playing primarily on the DP World Tour throughout his career, Dean Burmester is one of the most talented players in the field this week. The 33-year-old hits the ball a mile and in a short sample size has done great work on Bermudagrass greens.

Burmester got in the mix earlier this fall at the Sanderson Farms Championship, using his strong off the tee game and ability to get hot with the putter to finish in the top five of the event. He also has displayed a strong around the green game, which is important for the difficult setup at Memorial Park.

Although he hasn’t played much on the PGA TOUR, I believe Burmester is capable of winning if he gets into contention. He’s won two DP World Tour events and nine Sunshine Tour events, so he’s at least got the taste of pressure if he finds himself in a good spot over the weekend.

Sepp Straka +8000 (DraftKings)

Sepp Straka feels outrageously mispriced this week. He has three top-seven finishes in his past seven starts, including two seconds. The 29-year-old has struggled in his past two starts, but neither of the events seemed to be a real fit for what he does best.

Straka has played his best golf on Bermudagrass greens and has also contended in some difficult events. He won the Honda classic, which is a tough course with Bermudagrass greens, and recently contended at the FedEx St. Jude, which also fits that theme.

Throughout the short history of the Houston Open, players who have dominated on the par 5s have had the most success. In the field, Straka ranks 11th in his past 24 rounds in Strokes Gained: Par 5 and also ranks sixth in Strokes Gained: Putting when the greens are fast.

Francesco Molinari +12500 (BetRivers)

It’s been a tough couple of years for Francesco Molinari. After winning the 2018 Open Championship, the Italian was one of the best players in the world. He was a Ryder Cup hero who’d also won two other starts in addition to the Open. Once again, he found himself in a great spot to win a major when he found the water on the 12th and 15th holes at the 2019 Masters. Since then, he’s yet to have another top-five finish on the PGA TOUR.

After being untouchable on the betting board for the better part of three years, I believe it’s time to start taking some shots on Molinari again at long odds. We’ll probably never see the 2018 version of him again, but he’s a better player than he’s shown from 2019-2022.

Recently, he’s shown some flashes of getting back into form. He finished in a tie for ninth in a loaded BMW PGA Championship and then finished 28th at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Last week, he got off to a hot start before a bad weekend dropped him near the bottom of the leaderboard.

If he’s indeed back in form, Memorial Park should be a good fit for the 39-year-old. Four of Molinari’s nine wins have come at tournaments where the winning score is -12 or worse. Considering those winning scores are quite rare in today’s game, it’s clear that the tougher the event, the better chance Moli has to win.

At triple digits, he’s worth a shot in a fairly weak field. Molinari’s odds should be monitored for a possible resurgence as we head into 2023.

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