2022 Cadence Bank Houston Odds, Open Expert Picks & Preview: Taylor Pendrith, Dean Burmester & Jason Day Fit Memorial Park Golf Course

As we return to the land of the shot tracker, the PGA TOUR makes its way to Houston to play the 2022 Cadence Bank Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the third consecutive year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course will be fairly thick rough and tightly mowed runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5s and five Par 3s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, Tony Finau, Jason Day and Hideki Matsuyama.

The must-have app for golf bettors

Custom scoreboard for your bets

Free picks from experts

Live odds for every golfer

Download Now

Past Winners at The Houston Open

• 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
• 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)
• 2019: Lanto Griffin (-14)
• 2018: Ian Poulter (-19)
• 2017: Russell Henley (-20)
• 2016: Jim Herman (-15)
• 2015: J.B. Holmes (-16)

Let's take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

1. Adam Schenk (+19.8) (+8000)
2. Tony Finau (+19.7) (+1600)
3. Matthew NeSmith (+17.8) (+4000)
4. Mark Hubbard (+17.4) (+13000)
5. Brendan Steele (+16.7) (+10000)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in past 24 rounds:

1. Taylor Pendrith (+20.2) (+5000)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+19.1) (+650)
3. Keith Mitchell (+18.5) (+5000)
4. Brendan Steele (+15.8) (+10000)
5. Taylor Montgomery (+15.1) (+2000)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory last season.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) past 24 rounds:

1. Alex Noren (+18.8) (+8000)
2. Brendon Todd (+17.7) (N/A – withdrew)
3. Denny McCarthy (+16.7) (+3500)
4. Peter Malnati (+15.6) (+15000)
5. Ben Taylor (+14.5) (+20000)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up and downs around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green in past 24 rounds:

1. Scott Piercy (+13.4) (+20000)
2. Vincent Whaley (+13.0) (N/A – withdrew)
3. Francesco Molinari (+11.8) (+8000)
4. Stephan Jaeger (+11.1) (+10000)
5. Andrew Putnam (+10.5) (+4000)

Strokes Gained: Par 5

Over the past few years, Strokes Gained: Par 5 has rated out as the most important statistic at Memorial Park.

Total strokes gained in Strokes Gained: Par 5 in past 24 rounds:

1. Kyle Westmoreland (+18.1) (+50000)
2. Patrick Rodgers (+14.6) (+7000)
3. Stephan Jaeger (+14.5) (+10000)
4. Aaron Wise (+14.1) (+1600)
5. Cameron Champ (+12.1) (+10000)

Statistical Model

Below, I've reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25%) SG: OTT (25%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (16.7%); SG: Par 5 (16.7); and, SG: ARG (16.7%)

1. Tony Finau (+1600)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+650)
3. Matthew NeSmith (+4000)
4. Robert Streb (+15000)
5. Taylor Pendrith (+5000)
6. Jason Day (+3300)
7. Davis Thompson (+10000)
8. Aaron Wise (+1600)
9. Stephan Jaeger (+10000)
10. Hideki Matsuyama (+2200)

2022 Cadence Bank Houston Open Best Bets

Jason Day +3300 (Caesars)

I've been on Jason Day for his last few starts, and he's done nothing that gives me any reason to jump off now. In fact, his play has been quite encouraging. He's finished eighth, 11th and 21st in his past three starts, and seven of his past eight rounds have been in the 60s. His opening round at El Camaleón (73) last week was the outlier and proved to be too much to overcome. He responded by shooting 64, 67 and 66 over the next three rounds. 

Day's betting odds have been slashed this week, and I believe it's for good reason. Memorial Park should be a much better fit for Day's skillset, and the winning scores have been -10 and -13 in the two events at the course. The difficult conditions should give the 34-year-old an advantage, especially with his around the green prowess being such a big factor.

In Day's first start at Memorial Park, he finished in a tie for seventh. The former world No. 1 is finally showing that he's healthy and can play consistently from week to week. He's worth one more shot this week in Houston.

Taylor Pendrith +5000 (bet365)

I have some concerns about Taylor Pendrith's short game and putting at Memorial Park, but I believe this number is too big for his talent. Additionally, there are multiple ways to get it done at the course, and players like Dustin Johnson and Sam Burns have used their power to contend in the event.

Despite struggling in some other areas, Pendrith is still absolutely elite off the tee. He's gained strokes on the field in the category in 10 consecutive events and ranks third in the field in his past 24 rounds. He also ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, so it's certainly possible the Canadian can overcome his poor short game and ball strike his way to victory.

Dean Burmester +8000 (Caesars)

Although he may be lesser known due to playing primarily on the DP World Tour throughout his career, Dean Burmester is one of the most talented players in the field this week. The 33-year-old hits the ball a mile and in a short sample size has done great work on Bermudagrass greens.

Burmester got in the mix earlier this fall at the Sanderson Farms Championship, using his strong off the tee game and ability to get hot with the putter to finish in the top five of the event. He also has displayed a strong around the green game, which is important for the difficult setup at Memorial Park.

Although he hasn't played much on the PGA TOUR, I believe Burmester is capable of winning if he gets into contention. He's won two DP World Tour events and nine Sunshine Tour events, so he's at least got the taste of pressure if he finds himself in a good spot over the weekend.

Sepp Straka +8000 (DraftKings)

Sepp Straka feels outrageously mispriced this week. He has three top-seven finishes in his past seven starts, including two seconds. The 29-year-old has struggled in his past two starts, but neither of the events seemed to be a real fit for what he does best.

Straka has played his best golf on Bermudagrass greens and has also contended in some difficult events. He won the Honda classic, which is a tough course with Bermudagrass greens, and recently contended at the FedEx St. Jude, which also fits that theme.

Throughout the short history of the Houston Open, players who have dominated on the par 5s have had the most success. In the field, Straka ranks 11th in his past 24 rounds in Strokes Gained: Par 5 and also ranks sixth in Strokes Gained: Putting when the greens are fast.

Francesco Molinari +12500 (BetRivers)

It's been a tough couple of years for Francesco Molinari. After winning the 2018 Open Championship, the Italian was one of the best players in the world. He was a Ryder Cup hero who'd also won two other starts in addition to the Open. Once again, he found himself in a great spot to win a major when he found the water on the 12th and 15th holes at the 2019 Masters. Since then, he's yet to have another top-five finish on the PGA TOUR.

After being untouchable on the betting board for the better part of three years, I believe it's time to start taking some shots on Molinari again at long odds. We'll probably never see the 2018 version of him again, but he's a better player than he's shown from 2019-2022.

Recently, he's shown some flashes of getting back into form. He finished in a tie for ninth in a loaded BMW PGA Championship and then finished 28th at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Last week, he got off to a hot start before a bad weekend dropped him near the bottom of the leaderboard.

If he's indeed back in form, Memorial Park should be a good fit for the 39-year-old. Four of Molinari's nine wins have come at tournaments where the winning score is -12 or worse. Considering those winning scores are quite rare in today's game, it's clear that the tougher the event, the better chance Moli has to win.

At triple digits, he's worth a shot in a fairly weak field. Molinari's odds should be monitored for a possible resurgence as we head into 2023.