2022 Masters Odds & Matchup Pick: How To Bet Russell Henley at Augusta National

2022 Masters Odds & Matchup Pick: How To Bet Russell Henley at Augusta National article feature image

Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Henley.

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2022 Masters Odds

Jon Rahm+1200
Justin Thomas+1200
Dustin Johnson+1400
Cameron Smith+1600
Scottie Scheffler+1600
Brooks Koepka+2000
Collin Morikawa+2000
Jordan Spieth+2000
Rory McIlroy+2000
Viktor Hovland+2000
Xander Schauffele+2000
Patrick Cantlay+2200
Hideki Matsuyama+3300
Will Zalatoris+3300
Corey Conners+4000
Louis Oosthuizen+4500
Bryson DeChambeau+5000
Daniel Berger+5000
Joaquin Niemann+5000
Matthew Fitzpatrick+5000
Sam Burns+5000
Shane Lowry+5000
Tiger Woods+5000
Adam Scott+6000
Tony Finau+6000
Tyrrell Hatton+6000
Im Sung-jae+7000
Marc Leishman+7000
Paul Casey+7000
Russell Henley+7000
Abraham Ancer+8000
Justin Rose+8000
Patrick Reed+8000
Tommy Fleetwood+8000
Bubba Watson+8000
Sergio Garcia+8000
Billy Horschel+10000
Gary Woodland+10000
Max Homa+10000
Si Woo Kim+10000
Thomas Pieters+10000
Cameron Young+12500
Luke List+12500
Seamus Power+12500
Talor Gooch+12500
Webb Simpson+12500
Brian Harman+15000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+15000
Harold Varner III+15000
Jason Kokrak+15000
Kevin Kisner+15000
Robert MacIntyre+15000
Tom Hoge+15000
Cameron Champ+20000
Erik Van Rooyen+20000
Francesco Molinari+20000
Kevin Na+20000
Lee Westwood+20000
Lucas Herbert+20000
Matthew Wolff+20000
Sepp Straka+20000
J.J. Spaun+20000
Mackenzie Hughes+25000
Ryan Palmer+25000
Cameron Davis+30000
Danny Willett+30000
Garrick Higgo+30000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee+30000
Min Woo Lee+30000
Padraig Harrington+30000
Stewart Cink+30000
Charl Schwartzel+50000
Guido Migliozzi+50000
Harry Higgs+50000
Hudson Swafford+50000
Keita Nakajima+50000
Lucas Glover+50000
Takumi Kanaya+50000
Zach Johnson+50000
Aaron Jarvis+100000
Austin Greaser+100000
Bernhard Langer+100000
Fred Couples+100000
James Piot+100000
Jose Maria Olazabal+100000
Laird Shepherd+100000
Larry Mize+100000
Mike Weir+100000
Sandy Lyle+100000
Stewart Hagestad+100000
Vijay Singh+100000
Get up to $2,200 FREE to bet the Masters.

Welcome to the matchup article for the Masters!

It’s the most wonderful time of the year in the golf world, and I can’t wait for things to get started Thursday morning. With all the hype leading up to this year’s tournament, even those who don’t typically gamble may be looking for a little action to make things more exciting this week. I have highlighted one matchup below that my model has identified a solid edge on.

For those new to the article, welcome! Every week, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.

The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum this season.

Below, I have outlined the matchup that showed the most value in my simulations this week for the Masters. For each matchup, I provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at and why I believe it is a profitable bet.

Let’s get to it.

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Russell Henley (+120) over Shane Lowry (FanDuel)

My line: -102

Both Henley and Lowry are coming off consecutive top-15 finishes and have bee playing tremendously well of late.

The factors that separate Henley in this matchup are his consistently elite approach game, as well as his superior course history at Augusta National.

Over the last 50 rounds, Henley ranks first in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach by averaging a ridiculous 1.2 strokes gained per round with his irons. That’s 33% better than the second-ranked player during that time frame – Collin Morikawa. Lowry, meanwhile, ranks 36th in SG: Approach in this 91-man field.

In five career Masters, Henley has gained a total of 14.9 strokes on the field with finishes of 15th, 11th and 21st in his last three starts in Augusta. Over Lowry’s six Masters starts, he has collectively lost strokes on the field and missed three cuts.

Normally, course history helps a player on the PGA TOUR. At Augusta National, a strong track record is almost essential to contend. Those who do well seem to repeat their success year after year, while those who struggle tend to do so consistently.

Henley has the edge in the two biggest factors going into this week: approach play and course history. My simulation takes that into account and makes him a slight favorite in this matchup.

Bet Russell Henley at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.

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