2022 Masters Odds & Matchup Pick: How To Bet Russell Henley at Augusta National
Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Henley.
Click arrow to expand 2022 Masters odds via PointsBet
2022 Masters Odds
|Si Woo Kim||+10000|
|Harold Varner III||+15000|
|Erik Van Rooyen||+20000|
|Min Woo Lee||+30000|
|Jose Maria Olazabal||+100000|
Welcome to the matchup article for the Masters!
It’s the most wonderful time of the year in the golf world, and I can’t wait for things to get started Thursday morning. With all the hype leading up to this year’s tournament, even those who don’t typically gamble may be looking for a little action to make things more exciting this week. I have highlighted one matchup below that my model has identified a solid edge on.
For those new to the article, welcome! Every week, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.
The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum this season.
Below, I have outlined the matchup that showed the most value in my simulations this week for the Masters. For each matchup, I provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at and why I believe it is a profitable bet.
Let’s get to it.
Russell Henley (+120) over Shane Lowry (FanDuel)
My line: -102
Both Henley and Lowry are coming off consecutive top-15 finishes and have bee playing tremendously well of late.
The factors that separate Henley in this matchup are his consistently elite approach game, as well as his superior course history at Augusta National.
Over the last 50 rounds, Henley ranks first in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach by averaging a ridiculous 1.2 strokes gained per round with his irons. That’s 33% better than the second-ranked player during that time frame – Collin Morikawa. Lowry, meanwhile, ranks 36th in SG: Approach in this 91-man field.
In five career Masters, Henley has gained a total of 14.9 strokes on the field with finishes of 15th, 11th and 21st in his last three starts in Augusta. Over Lowry’s six Masters starts, he has collectively lost strokes on the field and missed three cuts.
Normally, course history helps a player on the PGA TOUR. At Augusta National, a strong track record is almost essential to contend. Those who do well seem to repeat their success year after year, while those who struggle tend to do so consistently.
Henley has the edge in the two biggest factors going into this week: approach play and course history. My simulation takes that into account and makes him a slight favorite in this matchup.