2022 RSM Classic Odds, Expert Picks & Preview: Find Value with Scott Stallings, Brian Harman, Nick Hardy & More at Sea Island Golf Club

2022 RSM Classic Odds, Expert Picks & Preview: Find Value with Scott Stallings, Brian Harman, Nick Hardy & More at Sea Island Golf Club article feature image

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images. Pictured: Scott Stallings

Click arrow to expand 2022 RSM Classic odds via bet365
Player NameOdds
Brian Harman+2000
Seamus Power+2500
Tom Hoge+2500
Jason Day+2500
Taylor Montgomery+2800
Keith Mitchell+3100
Denny McCarthy+3300
Joel Dahmen+3300
Mackenzie Hughes+3600
Matthew Nesmith+3600
Andrew Putnam+4000
Sahith Theegala+4500
Davis Riley+4500
Patrick Rodgers+4500
Harris English+4500
Matt Kuchar+4500
Justin Rose+4500
Wyndham Clark+5500
Webb Simpson+5500
Alex Smalley+5500
Aaron Rai+5500
Taylor Pendrith+5500
Kevin Kisner+5500
J.J. Spaun+6000
Nick Hardy+6500
Scott Stallings+6500
Brendon Todd+6500
Will Gordon+6500
Lee Hodges+6500
Chris Kirk+7500
Hayden Buckley+8000
Troy Merritt+8000
David Lipsky+8000
Greyson Sigg+8000
Taylor Moore+8500
Dean Burmester+8500
Davis Thompson+9000
J.T. Poston+9000
Trey Mullinax+9000
Sepp Straka+10000
Luke List+10000
Francesco Molinari+10000
Stephan Jaeger+10000
Ben Griffin+10000
Russell Knox+11000
Justin Suh+11000
Adam Schenk+11000
Patton Kizzire+11000
Adam Long+12000
Cameron Champ+12000
Sam Ryder+12000
Justin Lower+12000
Robert Streb+12000
Brandon Wu+14000
S.H. Kim+14000
Robby Shelton+14000
Scott Piercy+14000
Beau Hossler+14000
Danny Willett+14000
Adam Svensson+14000
Christopher Gotterup+16000
Zach Johnson+17500
Austin Cook+17500
Kevin Yu+17500
Ben Taylor+17500
Ryan Armour+17500
Henrik Norlander+18500
Kevin Streelman+18500
Dylan Frittelli+18500
Tyson Alexander+18500
John Huh+20000
Byeong-Hun An+20000
Matthias Schwab+20000
Matt Wallace+20000
Chesson Hadley+20000
Michael Thompson+20000
Carl Yuan+20000
Callum Tarren+20000
David Lingmerth+20000
Joseph Bramlett+20000
Stewart Cink+20000
Cameron Percy+22500
Charley Hoffman+22500
Tyler Duncan+22500
Garrick Higgo+25000
Austin Smotherman+25000
Zecheng Dou+25000
Rory Sabbatini+30000
MJ Daffue+30000
Harry Higgs+30000
Matti Schmid+30000
Brian Stuard+30000
Brian Gay+30000
Nate Lashley+30000
Aaron Baddeley+30000
Akshay Bhatia+30000
Harrison Endycott+32500
Harry Hall+35000
Vincent Norrman+35000
Eric Cole+35000
Andrew Novak+35000
Sam Stevens+35000
Max McGreevy+35000
Sean O'Hair+35000
Paul Haley II+35000
Andrew Landry+35000
Michael Gligic+35000
Jonathan Byrd+35000
Brice Garnett+35000
Vaughn Taylor+40000
Doc Redman+40000
Ben Martin+40000
Peter Malnati+40000
Kelly Kraft+40000
Nick Watney+45000
Kevin Tway+45000
Chad Ramey+45000
Camilo Villegas+45000
Zac Blair+45000
Danny Lee+45000
Hank Lebioda+45000
Cole Hammer+45000
Michael Kim+45000
Sung Kang+45000
Kevin Chappell+45000
Dylan Wu+50000
Richy Werenski+60000
Philip Knowles+60000
Kyle Westmoreland+60000
Nicolas Echavarria+60000
Brent Grant+60000
Scott Harrington+60000
Tano Goya+60000
Kevin Roy+60000
Chris Stroud+60000
Spencer Ralston+60000
Augusto Nunez+60000
Erik Barnes+60000
Trevor Cone+75000
Brandon Matthews+75000
Palmer Jackson+75000
Bill Haas+75000
Jason Dufner+100000
Carson Young+100000
Jim Herman+100000
Brett Drewitt+105000
Trevor Werbylo+125000
Jacob Bridgeman+125000
Martin Trainer+125000
Davis Love III+125000
Bryson Nimmer+125000
Conner Godsey+125000
Anders Albertson+175000
Ryan Brehm+175000
Tim Weinhart+250000

Before we break down the final full-field event on the PGA TOUR for this calendar year, a few words about Tony Finau, who cruised to a victory at the Cadence Bank Houston Open over the weekend.

As we might say about an emerging linebacker who keeps disrupting the opposing team’s backfield or the power forward who creates unique matchup issues: This guy is gonna be a problem.

I say this in the most flattering way possible, of course. Finau was long known as a player with immense talent who couldn’t quite get the job done when it mattered most, winning just once — in an alternate-field event, at that — in his first 185 career starts.

That futility is now a thing of the past, though, as he’s won four times in his past 30 events (and three times in his last seven starts). The proverbial lid is officially off, as he’s found growing confidence in his own immense abilities during these opportunities.

“Sometimes you just don't know what the day's going to bring,” he said after the four-stroke victory. “Those emotions you just have to fight throughout the day, and I was able to fight them and just execute when I needed to. I definitely have the confidence to win, and I showed that out there today.”

There are those who will insist that Finau still isn’t much of a closer, pointing out that his three wins this year — at the 3M Open, Rocket Mortgage Classic and in Houston — came against inferior fields at tournaments which are hardly considered the most important.

This isn’t untrue, but my counterpoint is that this is what the journey to a major championship looks like. There are very few players who win a big one without some struggles along the way, or at least without a learning curve on how to win.

Finau has started to figure it all out. There’s never been any denying his world-class talents. Throw a healthy dose of confidence into the recipe, and you’ve got a player seemingly on the verge of major success.

I get it: Many observers (and bettors) will remain forever skeptical until they see it, but this is the part where I’ll remind you that no player ever had the experience of winning a major until he won his first. It sounds obvious, but believing something can’t happen just because it hasn’t happened previously is a theory which will result in being wrong an awful lot.

Via Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Tony Finau of the United States poses with the trophy and his wife Alayna and son Drace after putting in to win on the 18th hole during the final round of the Cadence Bank Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course on November 13, 2022 in Houston, Texas.

With four top fives and 10 top 10s in 26 career major appearances, Finau seems primed to make that leap now that he’s learned how to win at the highest level.

With his most recent win, Finau helped further a trend during the fall portion of the schedule – one which probably delights the folks at PGA TOUR HQ but discourages bettors trying to find a sleeper.

Editor's Note: As of late Tuesday morning, Tony Finau has withdrawn from The RSM Classic.

This is supposed to be Longshot SZN, but instead we’ve been treated to a bunch of players at somewhat short odds who have won these events. Here are those numbers, according to the archive at golfodds.com:

PlayerTournamentOdds and Place on Odds Board
Max HomaFortinet Championship18/1, T1
Mackenzie HughesSanderson Farms Championship100/1, T44
Tom KimShriners Children's Open25/1, 5
Keegan BradleyZOZO Championship30/1, T9
Rory McIlroyTHE CJ CUP7/1, 1
Seamus PowerButterfield Bermuda Championship20/1, T1
Russell HenleyWWT Championship at Mayakoba35/1, T9
Tony FinauCadence Bank Houston Open16/1, T3

As you can see, only one of the first eight winners this season owned pre-tourney odds greater than 35/1, and only one of ‘em was outside the top 10 on the initial board–thank you, Mr. Hughes.

All of which brings us to this week’s RSM Classic, which over the past half-dozen years has served as a total dichotomy of what we’ve witnessed this year.

YearWinnerOdds and Place on Odds Board
2021Talor Gooch40/1, T11
2020Robert Streb300/1, T113
2019Tyler Duncan150/1, T67
2018Charles Howell III40/1, T12
2017Austin Cook60/1, T25
2016Mackenzie Hughes200/1, T69

During this time, there have been no winners from inside the top 10 on the board, nobody shorter than 40/1, and half of the winners have started with triple-digit prices.

None of that is to suggest that this is definitively the week where we finally have a longshot champion–just that there’s at least some reason for optimism if you’re simply hoping to cash a lottery ticket.

The other interesting trend is that this event is seemingly a perfect spot for your favorite SEC graduate, preferably one who lives nearby and serves in the de facto Sea Island Mafia, yet none of the past six winners – since Kevin Kisner claimed this title in 2015 – fit the profile. Again, that’s not to say it can’t happen, just that we might need to tweak the narrative a bit.

With three rounds on the Seaside Course (7,005-yard par-70) and one on the Plantation Course (7,060-yard par-72), there are certainly players who fit this one more than others.

Let’s get to the picks, starting with a player who’s been trending in the right direction for a while.

Outright Winner

One player to win the tournament

Scott Stallings (+6600)

It’s somehow been almost nine full years since Stallings’ last of three PGA TOUR victories, though I’m not sure we could imply that he’s underachieved or underperformed during that time.

In fact, at age 37, he might’ve just enjoyed his best campaign so far, with seven top 10s and 12 top 25s in 31 starts last season, including a runner-up finish at the BMW Championship which got him into the TOUR Championship for the first time.

That alone is a major checkpoint toward success, if not for the confidence factor, then for the more palpable ability to set a playing schedule ahead of time and cherry-pick the events which best suit his game.

This one hasn’t always suited him, as he’s made the cut in 7-of-9 starts, but hasn’t finished better than 29th since a T-9 back in 2016. Then again, I go back to the point that he’s playing better golf than any of those previous years. He’s played just three events in the new season (13th-40th-58th), but last season finished 71st in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 68th Around the Green and 44th in Putting.

None of those stats leap off the page, but we can put ‘em all together and find one of the game’s more well-rounded non-superstars, a guy who’s performed well enough to claim that elusive next victory. This is a week where I’ll have a few players on the card from this area on the board, but Stallings has as much upside as any of them.

Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Brian Harman (+1800)

I'm not gonna lie: Prior to the odds being released, Harman was on my short list of potential favorite outright plays, but I never considered he’d be this price, the second-shortest odds behind only Finau, which is a stark contrast to his 80/1 number here last year.

There was some nice symmetry with him finishing runner-up to fellow UGA Bulldog Russell Henley at Mayakoba a few weeks ago, as those are the two players I’ve earmarked over the past 18-24 months most due for some positive regression. Essentially, their results weren’t quite equating to their performances.

I still like having some sort of Harman investment this week, despite owning just a pair of top 10s in 10 starts at a venue which should be right up his alley. For those in full-year OADs, he’s certainly in the mix, not to mention for DFS or maybe in a H2H matchup at plus-money against Finau.

Stephan Jaeger (+8000)

If you like Sepp Straka, you should love Jaeger – another player with a European flag next to his name who grew up in the South and plays his best golf on Bermuda surfaces.

Coming off a T9 last week in Houston, Jaeger has shown a high floor (just one MC in his last nine starts) and a potential ceiling that is still growing. Last year, he opened with a 66 but posted a 75 the next day to miss the cut. I’ll take that as a glass-half-full analysis toward his prospects this week.

Patton Kizzire (+15000)

Run, don’t walk, to any proverbial betting window offering up this number on Kizzire. Just as I didn’t see Harman being so short, I also didn’t see Kizzire being so long, not after getting into the penultimate pairing on Sunday afternoon at Mayakoba in his most recent start, eventually finishing T10, but hinting along the way that he might’ve found something moving forward.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this number drops to something closer to 100/1 or even shorter by Thursday morning, so jump on it while it’s still available.

Top Five

One player to finish top five

Denny McCarthy (+750 for top five)

There are enough players whose games are a perfect fit for a shorter track with Bermuda greens, but perhaps nobody receives more of a bump than McCarthy. We’ve long known that he’s one of the game’s preeminent putters.

What’s made him a more enticing play to win – or at least contend – for the first time is his improving ball-striking numbers. Three seasons ago, he ranked 162nd in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. Two seasons ago he was 157th, last season he was 114th, and in six starts this season he’s 95th.

Look, he’s never going to be Justin Thomas or Collin Morikawa with an iron in his hand, but unlike the great ball-strikers who just need to putt a little bit better than the field average in order to contend, he’s a great putter who just needs to hit it a little better than average. That’s starting to happen more often than not, which gives us optimism that he can improve upon an RSM record which shows a T8 and T10 among his last three starts.

Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Denny McCarthy.

Top 10

One player to finish top 10

Nick Hardy (+500 for top 10)

I’ve admittedly been on Hardy a lot recently, but I make no apologies for backing a player who currently ranks eighth in Strokes Gained on Approach.

This is about to be a leap year for the Illinois native, whose ranking of 175th in the OWGR should at least be cut in half by season’s end, if not much better than that. He’s finished 21st-23rd-44th-5th in his last four starts, and I like another top-10 finish here.

Top 20

One player to finish top 20

Davis Thompson (+350 for top 20)

Here’s your chalky value narrative play of the week that makes way too much sense to not tail. Thompson is the son of the RSM Classic tournament director, and when I asked him on my SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show how many times he’s played the Seaside course, he just laughed and said he couldn’t even guess.

But the rookie has more going for him than just the narrative–he’s also immensely talented. Thompson hasn’t missed a cut in four starts so far, which includes a pair of top-12 finishes. By the time all the golf betting pundits like myself get done waxing poetic about his chances this week, I expect his outright price of 100/1 to be much shorter and wouldn’t be surprised if he’s one of the highest-owned DFS plays of the week. All for good reason.

Top 30

One player to finish top 30

Lee Hodges (-190 for Top 30)

I’ve written up Hodges in a few other previews recently, and despite last week’s MC, I’m not moving away from this one. Already with a pair of top-30 finishes this season, he’s a solid player who should cash plenty of conservative props this season.

Top 40

One player to finish top 40

Jonathan Byrd (+350 for top 40)

At 44, he’s not the same player he was a decade ago, but Byrd has shown he still has some game in limited starts. He has top-40 finishes in two of his last three starts and a top-40 finish at this event in three of his last six. There are certainly players at, say, even-money who have a better chance of cashing this bet if you want to play it more cautiously, but if you’re looking for a bigger payout with good value, I like the idea here.

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

Matthew NeSmith

From Aaron Wise to Seamus Power to Thomas Detry, there are a handful of players who have done a world of good for themselves with a hot start to the season here in the fall months, and NeSmith’s name is firmly on that list, as well.

He finished in the top 10 in three straight events before a T53 last week in Houston, but this one should suit his game much better, as evidenced by his track record. NeSmith owns results of 29th-15th-14th in three previous starts here, with 10 rounds of 68 or better in 12 tries.

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew NeSmith

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Greyson Sigg

At this point I’m probably just profiling, but another ball-striker who thrives on shorter tracks and Bermuda greens seems too good to pass up. Sigg doesn’t own a great record here – a T49 and two MCs in three starts – but six consecutive made cuts shows he owns a nice floor which should pay off in DFS.

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round Thursday

Will Gordon (+5000 for First-Round Leader)

With two courses in play for the first two rounds, you’ll essentially have double the number of chances to lose your money on FRL bets! I kid, I kid. On either course, you’ll have to pick a player who can take it deep, as last year, Sebastian Munoz opened with a 10-under 60 on the Seaside, while Hughes and Stallings started with matching 9-under 63s on the Plantation.

For full disclosure, as always, I’m writing this preview before the tee times have been released, but Gordon is a player I not only like for this event, but especially on Thursday, as he’s posted a 66.50 first-round scoring average in six starts this season, including an opening 62 at Mayakoba two weeks ago.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players

Brendon Todd (+6000)

I like targeting players in matchups who maintain a high floor, essentially giving us a chance to win on both Friday and Sunday. Todd has cashed a check in eight of his last nine starts overall and six times in eight career starts at The RSM Classic. This price feels a little short to chase him as an outright play, but against similarly priced players such as Wyndham Clark, Aaron Rai or Harris English, I think he makes for a nice choice.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Keith Mitchell (+3000), Joel Dahmen (+4000), Taylor Moore (+4500), Matt Kuchar (+4500), Davis Riley (+5000), Chris Kirk (+6500), Justin Lower (+8000), Hayden Buckley (+8000), Robbie Shelton (+10000), Ben Griffin (+10000), Sam Ryder (+15000), Chesson Hadley (+18000), Doc Redman (+40000)

Off Tour

One player to win on another tour

Robert Macintyre (+3500)

It’s tough to look too far past Rory McIlroy or Jon Rahm at this season’s DP World Tour Championship, until you see their ultra-short outright prices, as they’re listed at +330 and +500, respectively.

No thank you.

I’ll look for a bigger number here without venturing too far down the board, and Bobby Mac is one of the few who shows some value. After struggling for much of the year, he won the DS Automobiles Italian Open in a playoff over Matt Fitzpatrick two months ago and since then hasn’t finished worse than 32nd in five starts.

He’s been 4th-23rd-14th the past three years in Dubai, and a win this week would once again move the Scotsman to atop the list of next big stars coming from Europe.

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