2022 Shriners Children’s Open Updated Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions: Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar & More Bets for TPC Summerlin
Mike Mulholland/Getty Images. Pictured: Rickie Fowler.
Click arrow to expand 2022 Shriners Children's Open odds via bet365
|Si Woo Kim||+5000|
|Paul Haley II||+17500|
The PGA TOUR season brings us to Las Vegas this week to play the Shriners Children's Open. TPC Summerlin is a par 71 measuring 7,255 yards and features Bentgrass greens. The event has been a staple on tour since 1992.
The field is relatively weak this week, but we will get a chance to see a few Presidents Cup stars, including defending champion Sungjae Im and fan-favorite Tom Kim.
Some other notable players in the field include Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Cameron Davis, Rickie Fowler, Cameron Champ, Jason Day and Gary Woodland.
Past Winners at TPC Summerlin
- 2021: Sungjae Im (-24)
- 2020: Martin Laird (-23)
- 2019: Kevin Na (-22)
- 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-21)
- 2017: Patrick Cantlay (-9)
- 2016: Rod Pampling (-20)
Let's take a look at several key metrics for TPC Summerlin to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach ranks out as the most predictive statistic for TPC Summerlin. 2020's winner Martin Laird gained 6.5 strokes on approach which was fourth in the field and last year's winner Sungjae Im gained 5.4 strokes on approach which ranked 7th in the field.
Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:
- Tom Kim (+23.0) (+2200)
- Chez Reavie (+22.0) (+18000)
- Mito Pereira (+15.9) (+5000)
- Chesson Hadley (+15.8) (+13000)
- Stephen Jaeger (+15.3) (+13000)
TPC Summerlin ranks in the top 10 of courses in which driving accuracy is most important and predictive of the winner. Looking at past champions and course horses, guys who find the fairway are always a staple on the leaderboard.
Accuracy should prove to be more important than distance this week, as the course will punish players who miss the fairway. In a tournament in which making a lot of birdies will be crucial, players will need to find the fairway. This is very much a positional golf course.
Total Fairways Gained in past 24 rounds:
- Ryan Armour (+44.3) (+15000)
- Tom Kim (+42.7) (+2200)
- Chez Reavie (+39.0) (+18000)
- Troy Merritt (+38.2) (+11000)
- Aaron Rai (+35.6) (+13000)
Par 4: 400-450
Par 4's between 400 and 450 yards are the most common hole length at TPC Summerlin. Six of the eleven par 4's on the course fall in this yardage range.
Par 4:400-450 in past 24 rounds:
- Thomas Detry (+19.6)(+6000)
- Andrew Putnam (+17.7)(+9000)
- Maverick McNealy (+14.4)(+6500)
- Brendon Todd (+12.7)(+13000)
- Taylor Montgomery (+10.0)(+3500)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass greens+Fast)
Looking at past Shriners leaderboards, it's obvious that Bentgrass specialists seem to perform very well at TPC Summerlin. Kevin Na gained an absurd 14.2 strokes putting en route to his victory in 2019.
Total SG: Putting (Bentgrass greens+Fast) in past 24 rounds:
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+30.9) (+5000)
- Patrick Cantlay (+30.7) (+600)
- Denny McCarthy (+21.8) (+6000)
- Alex Noren (+21.6) (+5000)
- Justin Lower (+20.0) (+15000)
Birdie or Better: Gained
While TPC Summerlin does present a few challenges, scoring is generally relatively easy at the course; it ranks in the bottom 25% of courses on tour in terms of difficulty. Therefore, golfers will need to present themselves with a lot of birdie opportunities. Five of the past six winners have finished with a score of -20 or better.
Total Birdie or Better: Gained in past 24 rounds:
- Tom Kim (+22.0)(+2200)
- Cameron Davis (+18.8)(+4000)
- Emiliano Grillo (+17.7)(+5000)
- Stephen Jaeger (+16.0)(+13000)
- Taylor Moore (+15.9)(+6500)
Below, I've reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.
These rankings are comprised of SG:APP (25%) Fairways Gained: (20%), Birdie or Better Gained (20%), Par 4: 400-450 (15%), SG: Putting (Bentgrass+ Fast) 18%.
- Sungjae Im (+900)
- Patrick Cantlay (+600)
- Tom Kim (+2200)
- Brendon Todd (+13000)
- Adam Svensson (+13000)
- Emiliano Grillo (+5000)
- Mark Hubbard (+9000)
- Austin Eckroat (+15000)
- Andrew Putnam (+9000)
- J.J. Spaun (+9000)
Shriners Children's Open Best Bets
Tom Kim (+2200, DraftKings)
While this may feel like a prisoner of the moment bet after Tom Kim's electric performance at the Presidents Cup, this is actually a spot I’ve been circling for a while. TPC Summerlin should be a perfect course for Kim’s strengths.
Historically, it’s been crucial to hit fairways at the course in order to be successful. Winners of the event have gained an average of 1.2 strokes on the field per round in Fairways Gained. When looking at past winners of the event, it makes perfect sense. This is good news for Tom, as he ranks second in the field in his past 24 rounds in Fairways Gained.
Kim also makes birdies in bunches, which will be a requirement this week as the score should get in the -20 range. He ranks first in the field in Birdie or Better and is capable of winning a putting contest if that’s what the event turns into. He also leads the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, and is clearly in form if his play at Quail Hollow was any indication.
Kim became a household name in the golf world a few weeks ago, but if he can win his second PGA TOUR event at the age of 20, we’ll also see his name in the record books.
Emiliano Grillo (+5000, DraftKings)
It's always tough to commit to an Emiliano Grillo bet with how quickly things can go south for him as we saw on Sunday at the Country Club of Jackson. However, I feel that his current form is too strong to ignore, even if there will always be questions about his finishing ability.
Grillo gained 8.1 strokes ball striking last week, which was second in the field. When the Argentine is striking the ball like this, he tends to have a prolonged stint near the top of the leaderboard. He's actually been putting very well of late also, having gained strokes on the field in five consecutive events.
I firmly believe Grillo is as talented as anyone in the field outside of the top three players on the odds board. That should be enough to get him into contention and we will take our chances come Sunday.
Tom Hoge (+5500, DraftKings)
Similar to last week, there is a lot of attention being paid to young up-and-comers who people love to bet. In the end, we had TOUR veterans Sepp Straka and Mackenzie Hughes dueling in a playoff. I could see a similar scenario unfolding this week with Tom Hoge at the forefront.
Hoge has played great golf on the West Coast, including capturing his lone TOUR victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He also has some encouraging course history at TPC Summerlin. In his past two starts at the course, he's finished 24th and 14th.
Hoge also played really well at the Fortinet Championship a few weeks ago. He finished in 12th place and gained 4.3 strokes on approach. He fits the mold of past winners here who are accurate off the tee and have the capability to get hot with the flatstick.
Mito Pereira (+6600, Bet365)
I'm not completely convinced that Mito is back in form after a long stretch of playing subpar golf toward the end of last season. However, at this price, it's worth taking the chance to find out. In many ways, this is a good course fit for Pereira. Chief among those reasons is his ability to putt on Bentgrass greens.
Like his countryman Joaquin Niemann, most of the early success in the Chilean’s career has come on similar putting surfaces. In 2019, we saw some Presidents Cup participants reel off victories after the event. Maybe gearing up to take on a talented American team is just what Mito needed to refocus and get back into form.
Rickie Fowler (+6600, Bet365)
Rickie Fowler showed some signs of life in his most recent start at the Fortinet Championship. He finished in sixth place and gained 7.3 strokes from tee to green. It was his best ball striking week in quite some time, which may be attributed to his reunion with his former coach, Butch Harmon.
Rickie also started working with a new caddie, so it’s interesting to see an immediate improvement in his results. If he is indeed back, TPC Summerlin should be a great fit for the former superstar.
Matt Kuchar (+7500, DraftKings)
I was all in on Matt Kuchar at the Fortinet Championship, and he gave me a chance on the weekend going into the final round three shots back. Despite his struggles on Sunday, there's no reason not to go back to him at a similar number at what should be an even better course fit.
TPC Summerlin is a course where you don't have to hit it all that far off of the tee to contend. Kuchar doesn't have the distance to compete at many courses on TOUR, but he should be fine here.
At Silverado, he gained 7.1 strokes from tee to green but couldn't get the putter working. If he can putt like the "Kuch" of old, he's capable of winning this event.