Updated 2022 Sony Open Odds & 7 Picks for Maverick McNealy, Corey Conners, More
Getty Images. Pictured: Maverick McNealy (left) and Corey Conners.
- The PGA TOUR's first full-field event of 2022 is the Sony Open in Honolulu.
- Cameron Smith is the betting favorite, coming off his win at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
- Our GolfBet team looks up and down the odds board and makes its seven best bets for the Sony Open below.
Updated Sony Open odds via PointsBet.
|Charles Howell III||+3300|
|Si Woo Kim||+4000|
|Erik van Rooyen||+6000|
|Andrew D. Putnam||+17500|
|Dawie van der Walt||+25000|
|Hao Tong Li||+40000|
|Bo Van Pelt||+50000|
The PGA TOUR closes its Hawaiian swing with its first full-field event of 2022 in the Sony Open.
While the field doesn’t have the stars that the Sentry Tournament of Champions did, that’s likely good news for bettors. Outside of last week’s winner, Cameron Smith, there aren’t many names that stand out.
Well, good thing you’re here!
Our GolfBet staff has been all over coverage throughout the week, identifying the players they see value in for bettors. Now, we lay out their best picks, which included props at +275 and +200 that were winners.
Check out our writers’ best bets for the Sony Open below:
Maverick McNealy — Top 20 (+220)
Jason Sobel: On short, tight courses, McNealy is just about an auto-play for me these days, though it’s obviously dependent on how liberal we want to be on his prop bets.
While I still have concerns about his overall ceiling that will keep me from playing McNealy outright, he’s quickly shown that he owns an uncommonly high floor for a non-superstar, grinding out solid results on a seemingly weekly basis, which means there’s plenty of value on top-20 plays. In fact, in his past 14 starts, dating back to last May, McNealy has only missed one cut, while posting seven top-20 finishes, but only one top-10.
McNealy’s best results last season came at Pebble Beach, Silverado and Harbour Town, so we shouldn’t have to guess where he might play his optimal golf. He’s at his best when he can ball-strike his way from Point A to Point B when overpowering the course isn’t necessary. That should fit well this week, as he makes his first Sony appearance.
Maverick McNealy — Top 20 (+220)
Landon Silinsky: This will be the year people finally realize how good McNealy is at golf. He’s quietly posted nine top-25s across his past 14 starts and ranks seventh in this field in total strokes gained across his past 48 rounds. If the winds cooperate, this event will likely turn into a birdie fest, which is right up McNealy’s alley.
Coming off back to back top-20s at Mayakoba and the Houston open, getting over 2-to-1 odds on this pure of a ball-striker in this spot catches my eye this week.
Corey Conners +2600
Chris Murphy: There was a better number available on Conners when the odds first opened, but Bryson DeChambeau’s withdrawal saw it go down. However, getting +2600 is still solid for a guy who I think will be in position to contend for the win this week.
Conners is a prototypical ball-striker who can be relied on to hit fairways and greens in bunches. His biggest issue is — and seemingly always will be — the short game, but he has found success in that aspect of his game at this event.
Two of Conners’ three best putting performances of his career have come at Waialae Country Club, where he gained more than five shots with the flatstick. Unfortunately for the Canadian, he didn’t have his best iron game those weeks, leaving him with a 12th and 39th-place finish.
Still, in his best result at the Sony Open, a third-place finish in 2019, he gained 2.2 strokes on the greens, which again reiterates that he just sees it well on the putting surfaces of this course.
His tee-to-green game is a perfect fit for this track, and if he can pair it with the strong putting he has shown in prior years, I think we may see Conners contend this week for his second TOUR win.
Marc Leishman +2000
Leishman has two top-five finishes in his last three starts at Waialae, and he’s coming off of a week where he played some pretty good golf. Seven of the past eight winners at Sony have played the previous week at Sentry TOC, so his appearance last week could prove important. The 38-year-old was solid statistically in his 2022 debut, gaining 2.1 strokes on approach.
Last year at this event, the Aussie gained 6.1 strokes on approach, which was good for third in the field trailing only Collin Morikawa and Hideki Matsuyama for the week.
In addition to the fantastic course history at Waialae, Leishman has been excellent in Hawaii in his career, having two top five finishes at Kapalua in his past five tries. After round two of the Sentry Tournament of Champions, Leishman spoke about how similar Hawaii golf was to playing golf in Australia, which may explain the incredible success Aussies have had both at Kapalua and Waialae.
After a solid swing season, with three top 20’s in four starts, Leishman has a great shot to carry some momentum into 2022.
Matsuyama, Leishman and Conners all to make the cut (+120)
Rob Bolton: After licking my chops on that parlay at Kapalua, I wound up licking my wounds after Jordan Spieth failed to deliver on what seemed like a suuure top 10. Golf is hard, but I’d counter that golf betting is harder because you don’t control the outcome.
But I remain undeterred!
Waialae Country Club is one of the foremost payoffs of course experience, so I’m advising against hope in all first-timers no matter the cachet.
The timing of the Sony Open in Hawaii also has a strong recent history of rewarding guys who played the previous week at Kapalua. Seven of the last eight champions of the Sony dusted off rust the previous week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. The bump is real, and it’s spectacular.
As attracted as I am to a series of props for top 20s and top 30s, I can’t take my eyes off this parlay. Matsuyama is perfect in his last five trips, Leishman is 12-for-12 all-time at Waialae, and Conners is 3-for-3.
In all conditions in what usually is a shootout, these guys understand where to give … and take. We might as well take, too, as this is my “Take 2” in 2022.
Seamus Power (-126) over Billy Horschel
Bryan Berryman: Horschel was downright awful last week in Maui, losing 8.4 strokes on approach to the field. He’s been struggling since winning the Match Play last March, with only one top-10 finish since then.
On the other side of things, Power burst onto the scene last year with five top-10 finishes and his first career win at the Barbasol Championship in July. He continued that momentum over the fall and delivered a solid showing last week in an elite Tournament of Champions field, finishing T15.
At this moment, Power is simply the better golfer, and recent data backs that up, making this a great play over at FanDuel. Over the last 50 rounds, the Irishman is ninth in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach, while Horschel is 106th.
Abraham Ancer +3500
Justin Bailey: This early in the season, I like to rely on long-term data because we don’t really have much recent data to go off. Additionally, when I am using data, Data Golf’s True Strokes Gained metrics are my favorite to use because they’re adjusted for strength of field.
Anyway, I am always a sucker for Abraham Ancer because he can gain strokes in all facets. Over the last 12 months, Ancer ranks 11th in this field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and he’s certainly no slouch with the putter, ranking 24th in that same time frame.
On a course that doesn’t really seem to reward or punish any single skillset, I’ll target a balanced golfer like Ancer, who historically excels with his irons and driver.