2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks: Bet David Lipsky Over Grayson Murray
Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: David Lipsky of the USA.
I'm a person who loves having as much data as possible to traverse through every week. It doesn't mean we always land on the correct answer with how we build our metrics, but the ability to have long-term returns that we can point back to is a massive part of my process.
In fairness, it's not so much that I dislike the three-course nature of the week or think it is the sole cause of trouble, but some of the model-building gets significantly inhibited when two of the three venues won't use "Stat Tracker" to follow the rounds.
Not only does it create this inconsistent data return since I'm someone who maniacally builds numbers to mimic the venue on hand, but it also causes sportsbooks to limit taking on exposure on their end because of the concerns with the discordance of information.
While bets might get limited for the trouble those answers provide, it also presents this catch-22 scenario that could enhance the ability to find an edge for DFS contests.
I'll save the crux of that answer for all the times I have mentioned it on various podcasts this week, but the one thing I'll add is that everyone landing on the same solution can provide an extremely intriguing board since it allows you the ability to separate yourself from the masses if you generate unique research.
I've been a massive proponent over the years that playing to win in GPPs is the only advantageous route since you otherwise become the rake when you play to min-cash, and I would keep all of that in mind when constructing builds. Know that ownership is condensing in all the same zones, and try to get unique with how you compile your numbers to take advantage of that consolidation.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings for golf. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Pebble Beach Head-To-Head Pick
David Lipsky (-110) Over Grayson Murray (Bet365)
I want to preface this by saying there are a few logical paths to consider throughout the market regarding this wager. I've seen this bet as low as -130 for David Lipsky when faced with a two-ball (ties push) outcome. And I've also noticed options where the tie portion of the wager can come into play.
I always prefer any selection that doesn't get us stuck with a third option that alters the bet, which is why I would back the -130 if push came to shove (no pun intended). But there are also two other choices for us to consider if we don't have access to that price.
The first would be to select David Lipsky at -110 and risk a tie, costing us a matchup in which my model thought he should have been -140.
The other route is to bet Lipsky at -110 and then hedge marginally on the tie at +750. Your risk tolerance between all those options would be something only you can decide, but the core of what needs to be noted is that Lipsky versus Murray is a battle that shouldn't have been offered at anything near those rates.
We have seen numerous locations throughout the space already shift this massively toward Lipsky's favor in all setups, and it's rare that shops present us with an opportunity to take on a golfer this low down on my board.
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Murray ranked outside the top 100 in every critical category I ran this week, and while I can't say I'm overly bullish on Lipsky compared to most others in the space, I don't know how we can't consider all ways possible to try and fade a golfer ranked 630th in the world and hasn't finished better than 37th during his past four Korn Ferry stops.
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