2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Round 3 Odds & Picks: Taylor Moore has Value
Pictured: Taylor Moore. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
The weather has caused a volatile two days at Pebble Beach, but players will try to overlook that and get themselves through the cut-line and into striking distance prior to Sunday.
If you are placing wagers of any kind, please be aware of where everyone is playing their round tomorrow because that has made a massive difference this week in scoring output. Here’s a quick look at the disparity between properties.
R2 scoring → @attproam
-1.255 = MPCC (69.745)
+0.500 = Pebble (72.500)
+1.038 = Spy (73.038)
-1.204 = MPCC (69.796)
-0.260 = Pebble (71.740)
+0.862 = Spy (72.862) https://t.co/vPZbfQJAFO
— Rob Bolton (@RobBoltonGolf) February 4, 2023
As you will notice, there has been nearly a three-shot difference in difficulty between Monterey Peninsula and Spyglass Hill, and while the tree-lined protection of Spyglass might help some when it comes to Saturday’s expected gusts, Pebble’s wide-open nature off the coast might not be as lucky. Tournament officials did marginally move up the start time to get around these conditions later in the day, but this feels like a spot where anyone playing the easier Monterey might be in luck when it comes to the weather.
With outright tickets already in hand on Kevin Yu and Scott Stallings, there is not much value left on the board in that area that we can attack before Sunday. Instead, let’s pinpoint a Round 3 head-to-head wager that caught my eye.
If you aren’t doing so already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Round 3 Head-To-Head Play
Taylor Moore -140 over Jimmy Walker (DraftKings)
I don’t usually lay this much juice on a head-to-head wager. However, the math checked out when running my data for Taylor Moore over Jimmy Walker.
Beyond anything else, Walker is a perplexing candidate because of his recent boost at the Farmers Insurance Open. A share of 13th place seems to be generating marginal intrigue in the eyes of the public, who seemingly feel the 2016 PGA Championship winner might be emerging from his lengthy bottom-dwelling state on Tour. But, how can we view last week’s result as anything more than an aberration?
Walker’s even-par result on day one at Pebble Beach came during a flat distribution in scoring between that and Monterey Peninsula, and the seven-over implosion at Spyglass Hill on Friday starts to bring back memories of the seven missed cuts in eight attempts before last week.
Now, it is not all doom and gloom when you consider getting to tackle the most straightforward course of the three in brutal conditions might actually prove beneficial for all those players who have received the weather advantage, but it’s not as if Taylor Moore doesn’t get the same luxury. Moore ranked 21st in my model from a head-to-head perspective — 86 spots ahead of Walker (107th).
Even in a daily battle where anything can happen, all we can do is look at the long-term metrics of how Walker has performed over my two-year running sample size. His 100th-place rank for weighted proximity is an expected increase over any typical track. However, the weighted tee-to-green metrics take a nose dive from 93rd to 127th because of his inability to score on accessible courses, or hit enough fairways per round.
My model placed this wager right outside the -190 mark and it doesn’t come as a shock to me that other books have already started to balloon this number out into that territory to account for the incorrect pricing.
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