2023 Genesis Invitational Picks, Odds: Justin Thomas, Sam Burns Trending Upward

Scottie Scheffler put on a show this week at the Waste Management Phoenix Open as he outlasted Jon Rahm and Nick Taylor en route to defending his 2021 championship at TPC Scottsdale. Scheffler took over the top spot in the world golf rankings with that effort, but will have to continue to perform at a high level to hold that title.

The Tour heads back to California this week for the Genesis Invitational, which is hosted by Tiger Woods. His presence is always an attraction during this tournament, but it'll be extra special this time as he joins the field for this elevated event. It'll be the first time we have seen Woods in an individual event since The Open at St. Andrews. I don't expect much from his play on the course — especially on a course where he struggled even during his best years — but man, it will be great to see him back.

This week I'll be dialing in on all of the elite ball strikers as this is a course that requires precision from tee to green, but most importantly, off the tee and on approach. Its unique features also favor players who have been around the track a time or two and that course history will also drive the first clicks to my betting card when odds open Monday.

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Genesis Invitational Picks

Justin Thomas

There aren't many elite players on TOUR who are as streaky as Justin Thomas. Most of the top end players in the world rankings are there because of their week-over-week consistency.

Meanwhile, Thomas will string together stretches of elite work and then have lulls of inconsistency. He seems to have dug himself out of one of those lulls over the weekend at TPC Scottsdale where he posted 67-65 to climb into a solo fourth-place finish.

Now, he will head out to Riviera where he has three top-10 finishes in his past five trips, highlight his upside, especially in his 2019 runner-up result. I see his game trending up into this week and even though I don't anticipate him to be at long odds, he will be one of my top targets Monday.

Monday odds update: Thomas' best number is +1800 at bet365. He's 16-1 at BetMGM and 15-1 at FanDuel.

Sam Burns

Speaking of players who made a move over the weekend in Scottsdale, Sam Burns certainly fits that bill. He put together the round of the day on Saturday with a bogey-free 64 where he gained more than four strokes on the field with his ball striking. His irons cooled off Sunday, but he continued to drive it well and the driver is usually his trouble club.

Burns raced out to a 54-hole lead two years ago at this tournament and really made a name for himself on TOUR at that time, even as he fell back to finish third. Now, he's a multi-time winner at this level, but hasn't gotten the most respect in the odds markets. He opened at +5500 in a similar field last week and if I see anything near those numbers at open, I'll be ready to jump on Burns at the Genesis.

Monday odds update: Burns is +3000 at FanDuel and bet365.

Alex Noren

Many people got burned by Alex Noren this past week as he missed the cut by one shot after a tough opening round put him behind the eight ball. His 2-under round on Friday was solid and I try not to discount players too much for one missed cut.

Noren gained more than two shots on the field on approach in Round 2, which ranked him eighth in the field for the day. The missed cut was also his first poor result in quite some time as he had been on a stretch of three consecutive top-five finishes, two on the DP World TOUR and one from the fall at the Houston Open. He was once a top-15 player in the world and over the past 12 months he has really started to show that talent again.

This is a week where I will be looking to take that upside with a long shot on the Swede, who has two top-16 finishes at this event in five appearances.

Monday odds update: Noren is +11000 at FanDuel.

Pick: Alex Noren +11000

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