2023 Masters Odds, Picks: Brooks Koepka Sets Fast Pace at Augusta
Pictured: Brooks Koepka. (Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images)
Click arrow for the latest Masters odds via BetMGM, as of Friday at 11:45 p.m. ET.
|Harold Varner III||+100000|
|Si Woo Kim||+200000|
The first two days of the 2023 Masters have had a little bit of everything as Brooks Koepka has charged out ahead of the field with a 12-under through 36 holes. He was holding a three-shot advantage when play stopped due to inclement weather on Friday afternoon.
Meanwhile, Jon Rahm is at 9-under through his opening nine holes of the second round. When he will actually finish that round remains to be seen.
Those two have separated themselves from the rest of the field at this stage and only amateur Sam Bennett is even within three of Rahm at this point. Rahm and Koepka may be setting themselves up for a two-man battle, but with so much golf left to play (at some point) we can’t just focus on them going into Saturday.
Whenever play begins again — which might end up being Sunday if the Saturday forecast is accudate — it will certainly be on a soft course with conditions open for scoring for those players with holes still to play in the second round.
I’ll be dialing in mostly on any live value for players still on the course as we look for someone to get into shouting distance of Koepka going into the third round. Let’s see who stands out in the Strokes Gained data as play and weather rolls into the weekend at Augusta National.
Brooks Koepka Outright
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Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
3 Golfers to Buy for the Weekend
We have to highlight what Koepka has done through the first two rounds. There seems to be more talk about his caddie’s potential rules violation in the opening round than the absolutely impressive display of golf he’s put on to start the week. Koepka gained more than five shots on the field with his ball striking in the first round and 4.84 more on Friday. Koepka has rolled his sharp play from the LIV event in Orlando directly into this week at the Masters, where he’s put himself four shots clear of the next best player to have completed the second round.
Koepka is playing like the guy with four major championships to his name, not the one who has struggled with his game and injuries in recent years. It’s a good reminder of what an elite player he can be, and while there’s a long way to go, a win this week would certainly send shockwaves through the golf world.
Bet: Jon Rahm Outright
I have to be honest, I’m hesitant to do much on anyone not named Koepka or Rahm going into Saturday at the Masters, but I’m also not ready to buy in on either of them at such short odds with so much golf left to play. It’s quite the predicament and with so many unknowns, I’ll just throw some darts on guys like Cameron Young, who is 5-under with nine holes left to play and a birdie look on the 10th when play resumes.
Young started fast, but has been a little off with his game in the early parts of the second round. He may benefit from the break in play as he will get to reset before playing his final nine holes. If he can get his play back toward the 4.22 shots he gained on the field tee-to-green Thursday, he has the skills to go low enough to get his name in the mix over the weekend. Young is still seeking his first win, but at +2100 we have a little bit of betting value on one of the few guys who still has a chance to get in Koepka’s rearview mirror before the third round.
Pick: Cameron Young Outright
One of the more surprising results at this stage of the proceedings is defending champion and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler struggling to find his putter on the greens at Augusta National. He has been the best player in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green this week, but has also been the worst putter in the field. I expect we’ll start to see his flat stick turn around over the next two rounds and while it’s a stretch to expect him to contend from 11 shots back, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him around the top 10 when all is said and done.
Strokes Gained Data for All Players through Friday
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