2023 Sony Open Odds, Outright Picks on K.H. Lee, 3 More | PGA TOUR

2023 Sony Open Odds, Outright Picks on K.H. Lee, 3 More | PGA TOUR article feature image

Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: K.H. Lee.

After a nice appetizer for golf in Maui, we're onto our first full-field event as we looks at the 2023 Sony Open odds.

The angle here is pretty well known at this point. The winner will usually come from the group who just finished up at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

Whether it's just the competitive rounds that help them get back into rhythm or they just happen to be better than the rest of the field because they’re coming off a win in the season prior for the most part, they definitely have an edge here.

Now, onto the Sony Open odds and our picks.

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The Course

Length off the tee doesn’t play too much of a factor at Waialae Country Club, which measures just over 7,000 yards for a par 70. We’ve had shorter, inaccurate drivers like Cameron Smith, Patton Kizzire and Fabian Gomez come out on top in recent years. It’s really a second-shot golf course where a player who can get hot putting on Bermuda greens will come out on top.

It’s a vastly different course than Kapalua, which is more of a bomber’s paradise and favors strength from tee to green. Because of that, you shouldn’t just look at players who finished strong last week.

We saw that with a player like Kevin Na in 2021. He closed with a 79 and isn’t really the best fit for Kapalua, but shaking off that competitive rust is important for this week heading to a course that better suits his style of play.

It tends to play pretty easy by Tour standards unless the wind picks up. In five of the last six years, the winner needed to reach at least 20-under.

Click arrow to expand 2023 Sony Open odds via BetRivers
Kim, Tom+1100
Im, Sungjae+1200
Spieth, Jordan+1600
Matsuyama, Hideki+1800
Harman, Brian+1800
Henley, Russell+2000
Hoge, Tom+2200
Horschel, Billy+2200
Conners, Corey+2200
Bradley, Keegan+3300
Mitchell, Keith+3300
McNealy, Maverick+3300
Montgomery, Taylor+3300
Kyoung-Hoon Lee+3300
Scott, Adam+3300
Davis, Cameron+3500
Si Woo Kim+4000
English, Harris+4000
Spaun, J.J.+4000
Putnam, Andrew+4500
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan+4500
Kitayama, Kurt+4500
Smalley, Alex+5000
Grillo, Emiliano+5000
Poston, J.T.+5000
Kuchar, Matt+5000
Hughes, Mackenzie+5000
McCarthy, Denny+5500
Woodland, Gary+6000
Steele, Brendan+7000
Simpson, Webb+7000
Rai, Aaron+8000
Todd, Brendon+8000
Knox, Russell+8000
Svensson, Adam+8000
Hardy, Nick+8000
Buckley, Hayden+8000
Gordon, Will+8000
Kirk, Chris+8000
Sigg, Greyson+8000
Kizzire, Patton+9000
Jaeger, Stephan+9000
Palmer, Ryan+9000
Griffin, Ben+10000
Shelton, Robby+10000
Streelman, Kevin+10000
Ryder, Sam+12500
Cink, Stewart+12500
Merritt, Troy+12500
Thompson, Davis+12500
Suh, Justin+12500
Lipsky, David+12500
Armour, Ryan+12500
Taylor, Ben+12500
Bramlett, Joseph+12500
Nakajima, Keita+15000
Hubbard, Mark+15000
Martin, Ben+15000
Piercy, Scott+15000
Daffue, MJ+15000
Schenk, Adam+15000
Brandon Wu+15000
Glover, Lucas+15000
Reavie, Chez+15000
Higa, Kazuki+15000
Johnson, Zach+15000
Garnett, Brice+15000
Seong-Hyeon Kim+15000
Haley II, Paul+17500
Blair, Zac+17500
Taylor, Nick+17500
Yuan, Carl+17500
Schmid, Matti+17500
Kevin Yu+20000
Malnati, Peter+20000
Thompson, Michael+20000
Katsuragawa, Yuto+20000
Higgs, Harry+20000
Semikawa, Taiga+20000
Zecheng Dou+20000
Schwab, Matthias+20000
Barnes, Erik+20000
Lashley, Nate+20000
Streb, Robert+20000
Sabbatini, Rory+20000
Hammer, Cole+20000
Cook, Austin+20000
Lingmerth, David+20000
Kim, Michael+20000
Long, Adam+20000
Stevens, Sam+25000
Alexander, Tyson+25000
Duncan, Tyler+25000
Moore, Ryan+25000
Hadley, Chesson+25000
Lee, Danny+25000
Hickok, Kramer+25000
Eckroat, Austin+25000
Stuard, Brian+25000
Byeong Hun An+25000
Baddeley, Aaron+25000
Huh, John+25000
Tway, Kevin+25000
Redman, Doc+25000
Hall, Harry+35000
Endycott, Harrison+35000
Cole, Eric+35000
Novak, Andrew+35000
Ramey, Chad+35000
Wu, Dylan+35000
Smotherman, Austin+35000
Cone, Trevor+35000
Brehm, Ryan+35000
Kraft, Kelly+35000
Norrman, Vincent+35000
Kelly, Jerry+35000
Nunez, Augusto+35000
Onishi, Kaito+35000
Gligic, Michael+35000
Grant, Brent+50000
Stanley, Kyle+50000
McGreevy, Max+50000
Goya, Tano+50000
Echavarria, Nicolas+50000
Truslow, Austen+50000
Werbylo, Trevor+50000
Matthews, Brandon+50000
Harrington, Scott+50000
Westmoreland, Kyle+50000
Herman, Jim+50000
Werenski, Richy+50000
Roy, Kevin+50000
Walker, Jimmy+50000
Winslow, Joseph+50000
Young, Carson+50000
Okada, Kohei+100000
Akana, Blaze+100000
Guise, Danny+100000
Albertson, Anders+100000
Kyung-Ju Choi+100000
Markham, George+100000
Mueller, Jesse+100000
McLachlin, Parker+100000
Castillo, Michael+100000

The Favorites

We have a couple of real threats on this course at the top in Tom Kim and Sungjae Im at +1200 and +1400 respectively. Both are great iron players and have solid short games that should fit well here. Im hasn't played well here though, starting with a 16th four years ago and getting worse in each start since. Meanwhile, this will be Kim's first attempt here and having some history on the course has been a factor most years.

Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama are next in line at +1600. Matsuyama is the defending champ here, but the ball striking still isn't really in the shape we'd like to see from him. Spieth has a checkered past here. He hasn't played since 2019 and missed the cut two of his four appearances. But he did place third in 2017.

The +2000s range is an intriguing mix that includes Corey Conners, Brian Harman, Tom Hoge and Russell Henley. Henley has a win in 2013 and probably should have won the event last year. Hoge has missed the cut in five of seven starts, but the two times he made it, he finished 12th or better. Conners hasn't finished worse than 12th in his last three starts and will probably be the most popular pick of this bunch. Harman has the skill set to really play well here. The results have been fine, but unspectacular. He's made nine cuts the last 11 years, but only has one top 10 during that time.

The Mid-Tier

This has been the range to target players in the past, so I'll start here with K.H. Lee at +4000 (PointsBet). Lee was seventh last week on a course that was the best fit for him. But his short game appeared pretty dialed in and his ball striking hovered around the field average against many of the top names. So I'll take a shot with him here.

Next up is J.T. Poston at +5500 at BetMGM. Poston seems like a fair number in this type of field for a guy who's best results come on the shorter, easier courses. He doesn't have the results here that I'd like, but kind of similar to his John Deere win last season, the game is in solid shape and this course should fit his skill set.

Next up, I'll go to Christiaan Bezuidenhout at +6000, also at PointsBet. Bez is my one play who missed Kapalua last week. But he's a solid fit here and played enough recently during the holiday swing down in South Africa when the PGA goes on hiatus. He put up good results there so I'm not worried about any rust with him. He was 17th in his debut here last year on a course that will put the emphasis on his short game strengths.

I'll close out here with Mackenzie Hughes at +6600 at BetMGM. Hughes is another short-game wizard who finished in the middle of the pack last week. The irons were adequate in that strong field but the driver held him back. This week, that club is far less of an advantage, so I'll hope the short game prowess can mask that deficiency and he can work his way into contention.

This card leaves me with about a half unit to play with live, which I can use to toss on one more guy in the Poston/Hughes range. That or I can take a couple swings at triple digit long shots that drift after first couple of rounds.

The Sony Card

  • KH Lee +4000 (.83 units)
  • JT Poston +5500 (.5 units)
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (.66 units)
  • Mackenzie Hughes +6600 (.5 units)

Total Stake: 2.49

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