2023 Valero Texas Open Final Round Picks: Corey Conners Ready to Capture Second Valero Title

There's one more round of golf before it's officially Masters week and it's set up to be a good one closing out the Valero Texas Open. Patrick Rodgers has been the man to beat throughout the week, but his lead narrowed Saturday at TPC San Antonio as he bogeyed the par-5 18th to end the day just one shot ahead of Corey Conners, the 2019 Valero Texas Open champion. Those two players have a bit of a cushion to work with in the final round as Matt Kuchar is the next closest contender, but is three shots back of Rodgers at 9-under.

There will be added pressure on Rodgers and Kuchar on Sunday as either would get the final spot in next week's first major with a victory. Meanwhile, Conners will tee it up at Augusta regardless of Sunday's result. It's typically difficult to come from behind in this tournament and each of the past five winners was been in the lead or one shot back going into the final round. Only two of the past 12 champions have erased deficits of more than two shots on Sunday, which makes it seem like it may be a stretch to even include Kuchar in the final round.

Let's see how everyone stacks up in the strokes gained metrics as we look to peg a final winner before we get into 2023's first major.

Strokes Gained Explanation

Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.

Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.

Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.

In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.

You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.

3 Golfers to Buy for Round 4

I have always been hesitant backing a player to capture their first win, especially when they haven't had much exposure to final groups. Both of those things ring true for Rodgers and it's part of the reason I'll be backing Conners to win. Conners is a former winner at this same event and is more accustomed to the pressure of playing in the final group.

Rodgers and Conners stack up as the top guys in both ball striking and tee-to-green. Conners has a slight edge with his iron play this week and, more importantly, we saw Rodgers' elite level of approach play begin to slip Saturday.

Rodgers lost strokes to the field on approach in seven of his final eight holes, but the putter was able to save him from losing too many strokes on the leaderboard. As crunch time in the final round approaches, I trust Conners' ball striking to hold up under the pressure and at +190 at various books, he's the guy I'll be backing.

Hideki Matsuyama's day-over-day progression has me excited to see him get ready to tee it up next week. There are still concerns every morning as he warms up as to how his lingering neck injury will feel going into any round, but he has clearly been able to manage it well this week at TPC San Antonio.

Matsuyama gained 1.45 strokes on the field ball striking on Thursday, 1.61 on Friday and really stepped it up Saturday, gaining 3.62 strokes. He was sharp both off the tee and on approach, where he ranked eighth in the field. The 2021 Masters Champion will start the final round just two shots short of a top-5 finish before he goes back to Augusta, and with the progression he is showing, I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit that mark. I'll take +400 on that top-5 potential over at BetMGM, where we still get paid in full if he ends up tied for that position.

It looked like Brendon Todd may get his name in the mix to contend this weekend. Unfortunately, the wheels came off Saturday as he was five over with two double bogeys in his first six holes of the closing nine. That was a surprising turn of events for a player who gained more than four shots on the field on approach in his third round and is generally very solid with his ball striking.

I expect Todd to return to form Sunday, as he has been the best player in this field this year in closing rounds. I'll be looking for a bounce back from him and like his chances to finish with a top-20 type of result.

Strokes Gained Data for All Players in Round 3