2023 Waste Management Open Picks: Target Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, More

2023 Waste Management Open Picks: Target Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, More article feature image

Pictured: Hideki Matsuyama. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Click arrow to expand the Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds via bet365
Jon Rahm+800
Rory McIlroy+800
Scottie Scheffler+1400
Xander Schauffele+1600
Patrick Cantlay+2000
Tony Finau+2000
Collin Morikawa+2000
Justin Thomas+2200
Max Homa+2200
Sungjae Im+2800
Cameron Young+3000
Tom Kim+3000
Hideki Matsuyama+3300
Viktor Hovland+3300
Matt Fitzpatrick+3500
Jordan Spieth+3500
Sahith Theegala+4500
Sam Burns+5000

Taylor Montgomery+5500
Tyrrell Hatton+5500
Jason Day+5500
Shane Lowry+6000
Alex Noren+6000
Rickie Fowler+6600
Tommy Fleetwood+6600
Si Woo Kim+6600
Keegan Bradley+6600
Corey Conners+7000
Russell Henley+7000
Seamus Power+7000
Billy Horschel+7500
Brian Harman+8000
Maverick McNealy+8000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee+8000
Keith Mitchell+8000
Tom Hoge+8000
J.T. Poston+8000
Lucas Herbert+8000
Aaron Wise+9000
Andrew Putnam+9000
Chris Kirk+9000
Taylor Pendrith+10000
J.J. Spaun+11000
Denny McCarthy+11000
Adam Hadwin+11000
Matt Kuchar+12500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+12500
Gary Woodland+12500
Kurt Kitayama+12500
Brendan Steele+12500

Brendon Todd+14000
Francesco Molinari+14000
Joel Dahmen+15000
Wyndham Clark+15000
Garrick Higgo+15000
Harris English+16000
Scott Stallings+16000
Taylor Moore+16000
Luke List+16000
Hayden Buckley+16000
Cameron Champ+17500
Beau Hossler+17500
Davis Thompson+17500
Emiliano Grillo+20000
Kevin Kisner+20000
Martin Laird+20000
Mackenzie Hughes+20000
Patrick Rodgers+20000
Trey Mullinax+20000
Jhonattan Vegas+20000
Ryan Palmer+20000
Matt Wallace+20000
Brandon Wu+20000
Davis Riley+22500
Stephan Jaeger+22500
Webb Simpson+22500
Aaron Rai+22500
Adam Svensson+22500
David Lipsky+22500
Sam Ryder+22500
Matthew Nesmith+22500
Russell Knox+22500
Nate Lashley+22500
Nick Taylor+22500

Erik van Rooyen+25000
Lanto Griffin+25000
Patton Kizzire+25000
Greyson Sigg+27500
Scott Piercy+27500
Mark Hubbard+27500
Peter Malnati+27500
Callum Tarren+30000
Stewart Cink+30000
Michael Thompson+30000
Lee Hodges+35000
Charley Hoffman+35000
Troy Merritt+35000
Ryan Moore+35000
Kevin Streelman+35000
Chez Reavie+35000
Dylan Frittelli+40000
Justin Lower+40000
Chesson Hadley+50000
Adam Schenk+50000
Adam Long+50000
Doug Ghim+50000
Danny Lee+50000
James Hahn+50000
Zach Johnson+50000
Lucas Glover+50000
Kevin Tway+50000
Doc Redman+50000

Austin Smotherman+60000
Matthias Schwab+60000
John Huh+60000
Kramer Hickok+60000
J.B. Holmes+75000
Tyler Duncan+100000
Chad Ramey+100000
Jimmy Walker+100000
Andrew Landry+100000
Rory Sabbatini+100000
Richy Werenski+100000
Jason Dufner+100000
Nick Watney+100000
Kelly Kraft+125000
Robert Streb+150000
Brian Gay+150000
Max McGreevy+150000
Ryan Brehm+150000
Jim Herman+150000
Ricky Barnes+250000
Michael Hopper+250000

The golfers in Northern California are set for a Monday finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. While I'll be watching closely to see if our overnight pick of Justin Rose comes through, I'll also have an eye looking ahead to next week in Phoenix.

We'll make Waste Management Open picks in what is the second elevated event of the year with a $20,000,000 purse and an elite field set to tee it up at TPC Scottsdale.

DraftKings released odds months in advance and reset to board over the weekend. TPC Scottsdale is home to an in-person DraftKings sportsbook, so they were giddy to get the early numbers out. As of Monday morning, every other sportsbook has started to release numbers, as well.

I'll use those odds to target my first few picks, but will wait to see some other books before I lock in much of my pre-tournament card.

Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy lead the way as the top players in the world and are also two of the hottest. They will be tough to beat, but I plan to try and do just that as I spread around my picks in the mid-range.

Some others near the top are last year's champion Scottie Scheffler, his 2022 playoff opponent Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, a perennial contender in this event.

This is a major level, full-field event, which is exactly what was intended when the Tour set up the structure for these elevated tournaments.

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First Look

Hideki Matsuyama +2800 (FanDuel)

Just when I try to get out, Hideki Matsuyama reels me back in.

I was on him pre-tournament last year for a whole bunch of his withdrawing and even his DQ antics. While I told myself I would take a step back from him this year, here I am.

I just can't ignore the form he showed, especially across the weekend, at Torrey Pines where he blitzed his way to the top of the leaderboard with his typical impeccable ball striking. Matsuyama has shown that play often at this tournament, where he has three top-16 finishes in his past four appearances and back-to-back wins in 2016-17.

I like him at these odds, but I think there is a chance we see him tick out to the thirties at some books on Monday, especially if we see a good final round from guys like Viktor Hovland and Jordan Spieth at Pebble Beach.

I'm not pulling the trigger just yet, but Matsuyama is on my shortlist to add when we get more options available.

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Sungjae Im +3500 (DraftKings)

I started to write about Cameron Young here as I added him yesterday, but his odds have dropped to this same level with Sungjae Im after being at +4500. That was a bet on the number for me, but I'll highlight Sungjae Im at this number instead.

We saw a great week at the Farmers Insurance Open from Im and now he takes that form into a better course fit on his preferred Bermuda greens. He has three made cuts in three appearances at this event with his first lap resulting in a T7 finish.

Im has the talent to compete in any level of field and this is the type of track where, if his ball striking stays dialed in, he's a nice play at this number.

Sam Burns +5500 (DraftKings)

Sam Burns is too talented and has closed out too many wins in his young career to be at this number. He's a long hitter who bounced back with solid ball striking numbers at the American Express a few weeks ago and now gets back on his favorite Bermuda putting surfaces.

There's certainly an argument that this course isn't the fit for him since he has three missed cuts in four years. I'll take a chance at this number on a player with the top end win equity he has shown with his four wins over the past two years, though.

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