2023 Waste Management Open Picks: Target Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, More

The golfers in Northern California are set for a Monday finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. While I'll be watching closely to see if our overnight pick of Justin Rose comes through, I'll also have an eye looking ahead to next week in Phoenix.

We'll make Waste Management Open picks in what is the second elevated event of the year with a $20,000,000 purse and an elite field set to tee it up at TPC Scottsdale.

DraftKings released odds months in advance and reset to board over the weekend. TPC Scottsdale is home to an in-person DraftKings sportsbook, so they were giddy to get the early numbers out. As of Monday morning, every other sportsbook has started to release numbers, as well.

I'll use those odds to target my first few picks, but will wait to see some other books before I lock in much of my pre-tournament card.

Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy lead the way as the top players in the world and are also two of the hottest. They will be tough to beat, but I plan to try and do just that as I spread around my picks in the mid-range.

Some others near the top are last year's champion Scottie Scheffler, his 2022 playoff opponent Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, a perennial contender in this event.

This is a major level, full-field event, which is exactly what was intended when the Tour set up the structure for these elevated tournaments.

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First Look

Hideki Matsuyama +2800 (FanDuel)

Just when I try to get out, Hideki Matsuyama reels me back in.

I was on him pre-tournament last year for a whole bunch of his withdrawing and even his DQ antics. While I told myself I would take a step back from him this year, here I am.

I just can't ignore the form he showed, especially across the weekend, at Torrey Pines where he blitzed his way to the top of the leaderboard with his typical impeccable ball striking. Matsuyama has shown that play often at this tournament, where he has three top-16 finishes in his past four appearances and back-to-back wins in 2016-17.

I like him at these odds, but I think there is a chance we see him tick out to the thirties at some books on Monday, especially if we see a good final round from guys like Viktor Hovland and Jordan Spieth at Pebble Beach.

I'm not pulling the trigger just yet, but Matsuyama is on my shortlist to add when we get more options available.

Pick: Hideki Matsuyama +2800

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Sungjae Im +3500 (DraftKings)

I started to write about Cameron Young here as I added him yesterday, but his odds have dropped to this same level with Sungjae Im after being at +4500. That was a bet on the number for me, but I'll highlight Sungjae Im at this number instead.

We saw a great week at the Farmers Insurance Open from Im and now he takes that form into a better course fit on his preferred Bermuda greens. He has three made cuts in three appearances at this event with his first lap resulting in a T7 finish.

Im has the talent to compete in any level of field and this is the type of track where, if his ball striking stays dialed in, he's a nice play at this number.

Sam Burns +5500 (DraftKings)

Sam Burns is too talented and has closed out too many wins in his young career to be at this number. He's a long hitter who bounced back with solid ball striking numbers at the American Express a few weeks ago and now gets back on his favorite Bermuda putting surfaces.

There's certainly an argument that this course isn't the fit for him since he has three missed cuts in four years. I'll take a chance at this number on a player with the top end win equity he has shown with his four wins over the past two years, though.