The Players Championship Picks, Predictions: Data-Driven Bets for TPC Sawgrass 2024

144 players are set to tee it up during The Players Championship, and I have my Picks and Predictions below for data-driven bets at the problematic and chaotic TPC Sawgrass (Stadium).

You can hear more about how the course has changed since the move from May to March in the Links + Locks podcast I did this week with Roberto Arguello and Nick Bretwisch, but there is a reason past course-history returns look like they were scribbled in red crayon when diving into all players inside my model.

I do believe that means a calculated and condensed card is probably the best way to go before we can access some of the in-tournament data for all those head-to-head bets that we have been thriving at to start 2024, but let's look into the outright market in this piece to see if there is still any value left on the board.

If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.

The Players Championship Picks, Predictions: Data-Driven Bets

Every Monday, I take an aggregated total from a handful of books I respect and form a median outright price. None of that suggests you wouldn't be able to find better prices if you shopped around, but that is a total I use to compare against a golfer's outright odds movements.

Those returns indicate where the square versus sharp money has entered the market and shows potential DFS value for those looking to round out their player pool. Let's dive into some of the shifts in the market and see how they line up with the outright bets I discussed on the Links + Locks Players Championship Betting Preview podcast.

The Players Championship Biggest Market Movers

We do this every week when trying to find sharp versus square movement. More often than not, the activity from the public ends up in a direction that falters for all bettors placing wagers on those golfers to win the event.

Surprisingly, the only legitimate square mover in all areas of the market was Justin Rose. The Englishman has lost strokes Off the Tee in 10 of his past 13 starts, including negative Strokes Gained (SG): Tee to Green in 10 straight events. I get that the past course history here is enticing for a golfer who has major championship pedigree, but Rose is trending negatively in most of the critical zones in my model.

My most significant outlier from sharp consensus would be Justin Thomas. I get that is a wild stance to take since Thomas leads the field with eight consecutive made cuts at TPC Sawgrass, which includes fighting through the wrong wave in 2022 to post a bogey-free 69 during his second round to get into the weekend in extreme gusts, but my model isn't as sold as it has been in years past.

You could make the argument that my long-term data is hurting the profile of a golfer who has turned things around here in 2024, but this was the first time in four seasons that Thomas didn't top my projected win equity for TPC Sawgrass.

In my opinion, this past answer of Thomas's dominance at the course got overly baked into the equation. I may be wrong, but I am fine missing out on the outright ticket, especially since he is trending in the wrong direction when diving into most of his matchups.

For reference sake, here are the most overrated commodities in my model at this moment.

The Players Championship Data-Driven Outright Picks

For all my trepidation about this betting board, I do believe the outright market is a fun one to attack this week because of TPC Sawgrass' chaotic nature.

A lot of that answer stems from the fact that no player is safe from the carnage. I would generally say that that is a negative EV output because I want as many solidified solutions as possible, but adding muddled expectations might be all we can do to stop this Scottie Scheffler freight train if he is going to start making putts.

Sam Burns 40-1

I started my card with Sam Burns as we have to ask the question: Where would Burns have been priced if it weren't for his 78 on Sunday at Bay Hill?

When given the pretense of a golfer who would have had five consecutive top-10 finishes since the American Express, he likely opens in the high 20s. Instead, his poor fourth round shifted him down this board since most people are typically looking for a reason to fade the American.

The 2024-only data presents a massive shift in expectation when running my data.

Max Homa 28-1

Homa's price has been sinking over the past 24 hours because of his back-to-back top-16 finishes and two top-13 results here over the past two seasons.

My model believed that one of the best corollary expectations for success when diving into any data point was Weighted Proximity from Under 150 Yards and Projected Scrambling.

That metric saw Scheffler rank first last year before winning the title. The same came into play for Thomas in 2021 when he took down the trophy. It will take more than just that combination to get across the finish line. Still, the fact that Homa was the top-ranked option in that area does propel his upside potential this weekend in Florida. There is a genuine reason this price has been on the move from my opening grab at 33-1.

Jordan Spieth 35-1

I was lucky to grab this at 40-1 when prices opened on Monday.

Even at 35-1, consider this a number-grab above anything else since Spieth's massive increase in Total Driving for Sawgrass and Weighted Proximity heightened his ceiling output inside my model.

The floor has some issues when looking into his expected approach play, but these upside markets allow you to swing for the fence since a missed-cut will weigh the same in sectors that don't present each-way potential.

Brian Harman 70-1

I wrapped up my card with Brian Harman 70-1.

Harman's price when comparing sharp versus square books has been one of the more interesting things to track this week.

The better locations are dropping his total into the 40s. The shakier books are keeping this around 70-1.

Let's not ignore his elite short game and a top-five return for similar green complexes since you get a major championship golfer who has yet to see a shift for last week's overproduction when you shop around for the best price in the space.

My Model's Top Projected Win Equity Choices

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Sam Burns
3. Xander Schauffele
4. Max Homa

Best Values to Consider at New Price (Not in Order of Perceived Edge)

I'll provide two additional tidbits I didn't discuss this week over on Links + Locks.

I bet Adam Hadwin Top 20 at +300 over at BetMGM. I preferred the ties-paid-in-full feature they offered because of the extra value it presented.

Hadwin landed as a top-20 option in my model for Weighted Strokes Gained: Total, Weighted Scoring and Bogey Avoidance this season. Even if this venue has minimal course-history correlation, I will trust the back-to-back top-13 finishes from him at TPC Sawgrass.

I also decided to lay more juice than usual on a head-to-head bet and take Christiaan Bezuidenhout -125 Over Rickie Fowler (bet365). The value is thin in this spot, but my model had two things that pushed me over the edge. 

1. Fowler continues to be one of the worst trending golfers in my sheet. 
2. I used some of the past results at TPC Sawgrass and dove into hole-by-hole production to re-simulate these leaderboards. Bezuidenhout was graded as one of the biggest underachievers when running it in that fashion. Fowler landed as one of the largest overachievers. That seemed like a bad combination for Fowler when the form is sideways.