2024 The Sentry Best Bets: Expert Picks for Tony Finau, Sam Burns, More

Our staff has analyzed the 2024 The Sentry odds board and found their 2024 The Sentry Best Bets and other expert picks for this week's PGA Tour event at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Lahaina, Hawaii.

This is the first event of the 2024 PGA Tour season as the top 50 players from the FedExCup Standings finalized last year along with other winners from last season on Tour all received invitations to tee it up in this week's no-cut event. Of the 60 eligible players, only Rory McIlroy is not in the 59-man field.

Check out our Action Network golf betting best bets for The Sentry, including picks for Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Cam Davis, Jordan Spieth and more as we go through our 2024 The Sentry Best Bets.

2024 The Sentry Best Bets

Jason Sobel: Tony Finau +3300 (FanDuel)

Finau's first-round tee time: 2:21 p.m. ET

Amid rampant rumors that he already had one foot out the door to LIV Golf, Tony Finau announced last month that he would not be entering the transfer portal while going full Wolf of Wall Street mode. “You know what? I’m not leaving. I’m not f—ing leaving! The show goes on! This is my home. They’re gonna need a f—ing wrecking ball to take me out of here.”

(Okay, so Big Tone left out the naughty words, but you get the point.)

As much as I love a good narrative selection, though, this one is about more than the romantic notion of a player staying loyal to the PGA Tour and immediately reaping the benefits.

First things first: As will become a growing pattern in the not-so-brave new world of more short-field events, I’ll gladly fade the top of the board at exceedingly shorter prices. If Scottie Scheffler at +600 or Viktor Hovland at +800 wins this week — and they certainly could — I’m sure there will be plenty of bettors gloating about having them on their card, but I won’t be one of ‘em, unless a slow start offers some live value.

In a 59-player field, opting for those in the next tier at a much more palatable number makes better sense — and should be a strategy that repeats over the next eight months.

As for why to take Finau over those with similar odds, I like that he owns two previous top-10 finishes (in four career starts) at this event, including a T7 last year. Plus, he was T4 at the 20-man Hero World Challenge at the beginning of December, which suggests a semblance of form entering a week when there aren’t too many obvious suggestions.

While the status quo narrative doesn’t sway me too much, the not-so-indirect impact of having the weight of that decision lifted from his shoulders should only help.

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Spencer Aguiar: Sam Burns -125 Over Cameron Young (bet365)

Burns' first-round tee time: 4:27 p.m. ET

Cameron Young's declining form from within 100 yards and outside of 200 doesn't mix well with a putter that is projected to finish outside the top 40 on these massive Bermuda green complexes. Players will be asked to hit a robust 43.3% of their shots from one of those proximity ranges, which makes Young's equally declining form that much more problematic given that his short game has been an unmitigated disaster over the past season.

I am not giving up on him entirely in 2024, but I likely am out until we see some changes that involve more than just firing caddie Paul Tesori.

The matchups I play will always stem from whom I am trying to fade over whom I am trying back, which shows under the current mindset since Young landed as one of the five most overvalued golfers on the slate.

Still, a no-cut contest will also require a little upside since all players are guaranteed four rounds of golf. Burns should give me that potential to pop over a few rounds given his first-place rank after combining Total Driving and Putting for Kapalua.

I can’t say this is my favorite betting board ever because of the removal of missed-cut equity, but there is enough value to take a small swing on Burns to win a unit.

Nick Bretwisch: Jordan Spieth Outright +2600 (FanDuel)

Spieth's first-round tee time: 4:39 p.m. ET

Jordan Spieth is one of my model’s top discrepancies in terms of the current market’s pricing. I had Spieth set in the 20/1 range and will always take ~600 points of perceived value where I can get it.

Spieth's elite ability to scramble around the green and score within 50-100 yards and beyond 200 yards make him one of my favorite players for the weekend. Despite subpar ball-striking form the past two years at Kapalua, Spieth still managed to score here and should be a threat on Sunday now that the iron play is back above our expectations for him.

With fairways that are easy to hit, this is a course he should destroy when his ball-striking is in form, just like he did with multiple top-three finishes (and a victory) during his run from 2014-2018.

Matt Gannon: Cam Davis Top 20 +150 (BetMGM | Ties Paid in Full)

Davis' first-round tee time: 3:15 p.m. ET

Cam Davis is on the brink of breaking through with a big win. Truthfully, I think he can get it done in this field, so a top 20 should be an easy ask.

The Aussie's biggest weakness is driving accuracy, but lucky for him, he can lean into his power off the tee with no regards to where it goes as these are the widest fairways on the PGA Tour. From there, he can lean into his iron game and putter which are both streaky and have a super high ceiling.

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2024 The Sentry Expert Picks, Fades

Favorites We’re Backing

• Jason Sobel: Xander Schauffele +1700
• Spencer Aguiar: Scottie Scheffler +600
• Nick Bretwisch: Jordan Spieth +2600
• Matt Gannon: Patrick Cantlay +1500

Best Long Shot

• Sobel: Corey Conners +7500
• Aguiar: Eric Cole +7000
• Bretwisch: Cam Davis +7000
• Gannon: Sahith Theegala +7000

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Biggest Bust

• Sobel: Cameron Young
• Aguiar: Lucas Glover
• Bretwisch: Sam Burns
• Gannon: Collin Morikawa

Contrarian Player To Target

• Sobel: Rickie Fowler
• Aguiar: Tommy Fleetwood
• Bretwisch: Matt Fitzpatrick
• Gannon: Cameron Young

Trend That Guides Your 2024 The Sentry Betting Strategy

Sobel: If we’d never seen this 7,596-yard par-73 host an event, our first thought might be to target the biggest hitters who’d presumably hold an advantage at such a massive ballpark. But of course, we have seen Kapalua’s Plantation Course, and we’ve learned that the sweeping vistas and elevation make everyone look like a big hitter.

And perhaps there’s a nice little lesson to remember as the year begins: The game’s top players are either long or really long; there is no short anymore. Or more to the point, they’re all long enough.

I’m reminded that even though Jon Rahm won last year’s edition of this event, Collin Morikawa, Tom Hoge, Tom Kim and J.J. Spaun – each of whom ranked outside the top 100 in Driving Distance last season – all finished among the top five. I’m looking at ball-strikers who can wedge their way close to the hole on these huge greens and hopefully produce an exceptional performance with the flatstick.

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Aguiar: You will hear a lot about easy-to-hit fairways, massive green in regulation rates, distance-heavy returns and general ease for scoring over and over again this week at Kapalua. While those answers are undoubtedly relevant for a track that has seen 69 of 76 golfers finish 10-under par or better over the past two years, the ability to scramble and generate a stout short game will develop a more robust output than most birdie shootouts.

It is likely one of the main reasons why an international golfer has won this event 11 times since 2002, and it is a venue that accentuates particular factors that correlate well with scrambling when diving into the increase players receive with their irons from both under 100 yards and over 200 yards.

Distance isn't irrelevant when you look at a venue weighing in at nearly 7,600 yards. However, I was more intrigued by how players increased their projection when given easy-to-hit fairways and limited rough over the straightforward return of length.

That slight deviation from the norm will hopefully alter my projections from the pack since we are dealing with a 59-man field that needs unique takes to get different in various portions of the market.

Gannon: At a golf course like this, you cannot be scared to take it low. With the event yielding the lowest ever 72-hole score of 34-under par two years ago, we need to look towards golfers who are not scared to fire at flags and keep the pedal down.

“Taking it low” is a real skill that not all of the best golfers in the world possess. For example, Scottie Scheffler has a much better chance at winning a golf event with a winning score of -5 than an event with a score of -25.