2024 Valspar Championship Round 2 Data-Driven Pick: Bet Sami Valimaki on Friday
(Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images). Pictured: Sami Valimaki.
The early-season onslaught of easier-than-expected scoring continued at the Valspar Championship, as Kevin Streelman started with a quick seven-under 64.
I was hoping this would be a transient problem that would go away once the year got fully underway, but it is hard to look at these setups and not realize the pin locations for carnage have yet to be used during any stop.
Honestly, why would anyone want to get tested when LIV offers hundreds of millions of dollars for three days of work in a virtual exhibition?
I am intrigued to see how everything plays Friday when the weather becomes the great equalizer. Unless they pull players off the course because of the excessive wind, round two might finally be the captivating moment that all golf purists have been begging for weekly during this Florida stretch.
Author Kat Savage once said, "Life is simply a mix of mayhem and magnolias, so embrace this gentle riot and gather flowers along the way." Collecting enough of those magnolias will get you into Augusta in less than a month, but producing in the worst of conditions will be what gets you primed and ready to win the green jacket. Let's toughen up the challenge for the better good of all players on the PGA Tour.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Valspar Championship Round 2 Predictions
Sami Valimaki -105 over Matt Wallace (FanDuel)
We have an interesting situation tomorrow at the Valspar Championship because of the impending weather in the forecast for Friday. Strong wind gusts that may hover between 20 and 30 MPH for most of the day are expected to create carnage for everyone in the field.
The natural expectation from that answer would typically lead us to an English golfer like Matt Wallace, who has been tested in inclement weather throughout his career. However, my model generated an opposite conclusion for several reasons.
The compact nature of Innisbrook Resort will reduce some of the scrambling acumen when nine holes feature water that will loom over players' heads both off the tee and approach. Essentially, if you don't locate a fairway or hit a green in regulation, you end up at the bottom of these lakes more often than a course that would allow "true scrambling" to occur when there isn't a glaring penalty for being wayward.
We saw that come to fruition inside my model when attempting to dive deeper into the stats. The 33-year-old landed 93rd in weighted proximity, 68th from 150+ yards and 134th in expected total driving. I do think you need increased safety on the other end when a situation has the chance to turn ugly, something we got with Valimaki posting grades of 61st for weighted proximity, 16th from 150+ yards and 38th for total driving.
The projection here is not perfect for alleviating the circus-like conditions that will occur. Still, for two golfers who posted two-under scores Thursday, I will grab the edge that indicated Valimaki should not only have been 1.77 shots ahead of Wallace after round one but also the 65.53% difference in how much of the scoring took place with the putter from Wallace versus Valimaki.
I get that Wallace is a good putter, but it is also a strength that Valimaki will look to get closer to his true baseline form.
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