2024 Wells Fargo Championship Round 1 Data-Driven Pick: Matchup Bet for Thursday

Despite this being a week where I wish we had a cut and a full field of 156 players, we will have to make the most of Quail Hollow Club since the course presents one of the more demanding tests players will face all season long.

Quail Hollow's tree-lined parklands and undulating fairways create a unique challenge, evident in the significant decrease in Driving Accuracy and shift in extra Driving Distance. The lightning-quick Bermudagrass greens and Poa trivialis overseed add a 25% increase in three-putt totals over a standard stop to further underscore the importance of strategic model building.

Still, ultimately this course places golfers in a constant battle of aggression from long distances with either driver or irons. Part of that stems from attacking off the tee, although there is also an over 13% enhancement in projected approaches from beyond 175 yards.

Don’t expect the birdie-fest that we saw at TPC Craig Ranch last week. There will be a real challenge for all players over four days, something that pops out like a sore thumb when 10 holes this week feature between a 20% to 35% percent Bogey or Worse Rate.

If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Data-Driven Pick

Round 1 Matchup Prediction

Matthieu Pavon -115 over Taylor Pendrith (bet365)

I always talk about market overcorrections being something I am trying to pinpoint when finding value inside the betting board. Roberto Arguello laid out a decent case on this week's Links + Locks Betting Preview as to why Pendrith may be finding form after taking down last week's Byron Nelson, not to mention that betting markets didn't deviate from his price as much as DFS sites did this week.

However, my model remains bullishly optimistic about why Matthieu Pavon is the best value on this slate. 

Pavon has shown mastery playing these long courses so far this season, taking down the Farmers Insurance Open to begin 2024 at Torrey Pines. My model saw that strength by ranking him 15th in this field when pinpointing Strokes Gained Total: Long Courses, but the upside and consistency metrics didn't stop there. 

Only nine players this week placed in the top half of this field for all seven statistical categories I ran for Quail Hollow. As you might expect, eight of those targets landed as your favorites in that 30-1 (or shorter) range, but the outlier of the mix ended up being Pavon, who added an additional third-place rank in this field when combining Weighted Proximity + Expected Putting. 

Some of my concerted effort this week of backing players versus fading them won't be as relevant with in-tournament matchups as we have here.

That was more of a pre-tournament stance to account for the no-cut nature of the tournament. However, despite the recent output of results from Pendrith, this does feel like a letdown situation because of the lack of data-driven optimism. 

While the driver may carry him, ranking 20 spots worse for Expected Putting on these greens, landing 66th out of 69 players in Strokes Gained: Long Courses (despite his distance) and posting a suboptimal 66th-place rank with Proximity from 200+ Yards made me think this is still more glitz than glamour here at Quail Hollow.

Find more of my thoughts on this week's Wells Fargo Championship in our Links + Locks Betting Preview here: