2024 WM Phoenix Open Data-Driven Picks: Friday’s Value Play
(Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images). Pictured: Min Woo Lee.
The run of poor weather continued Thursday for the PGA Tour after half of the field found themselves stranded without completing their opening round of action at the 2024 WM Phoenix Open.
Sahith Theegala will hold the overnight lead and be able to sleep in for a while as everyone plays catch up Friday. It was a stellar performance for the American, who gained across the board in all four critical strokes gained metrics.
I will say that bets are complicated to run through tonight since we don't get a proper board to evaluate after all the hiccups. Nonetheless, I do have one value play for everyone to consider if you are looking to take on a 50-50 proposition that is being priced much higher in the market.
It is important to remember that not all value comes from having a substantial implied win probability percentage. Sometimes, it derives from having a number that is far off from the market, even if the wager isn't supposed to win 50% of the time.
Let's talk about what that play is and why there is an edge.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 WM Phoenix Open Live Round 1 Bet
Min Woo Lee +165 over Ben Martin — Live Round 1 (DraftKings)
When you are six holes into a golf tournament and already down two shots, something will need to turn around if you want to get that wager across the finish line. There will be some pros and cons to this bet that we can discuss further in the article, but my model seemed to think this head-to-head option was closer to 50-50 than the price indicated when DraftKings opened at +165.
The first thing to note is where everything left off Thursday before play was suspended. I understand Min Woo Lee missed the green on the par-three 16th and will be chipping for birdie from just outside 50 feet when his day begins again Friday. However, the thing missing from this equation is that Ben Martin is also in trouble and will need to sink a putt from a little over 10 feet if he wants to save his par attempt.
My model did believe Martin outplayed Lee over the opening six holes that were completed, evidenced by his nearly 0.8-shot projected lead over the Australian. Still, it was that combination of the 1.2-shot overachievement by Martin so far when comparing their totals, the potential for a one-shot swing on 16 and the overall pre-tournament difference in expectation from these two that placed us in a position in which my math kept pushing us closer into a territory of roughly +100 being the proper price (+107 if we are being exact).
That price has the potential to take a significant shift with any of the three realistic outcomes of Min Woo par/Martin bogey, Min Woo bogey/Martin bogey or Min Woo bogey/Martin par, although I can't help but continue to dislike Martin's numbers from a pre-tournament perspective.
His history at TPC tracks and expected weighted scoring each landed him outside the top 100 for anticipated performance on day one, and my model also placed him outside the top 100 for expected tee-to-green production at TPC Scottsdale. That is a total in which he sits 18th through six holes.
I will be approaching this number-grab situation cautiously, but a lot can happen down the stretch of a 50-50 wager when we get +165 to flip a coin. Some people would rather be guaranteed higher win equity and not take these shots, but if I am going to flip a coin, I am fine doing it this way over picking heads or tails during the Super Bowl on Sunday.
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