Sobel, Sleeze, and Davy: Our Favorite Players Championship Matchup Props

Sobel, Sleeze, and Davy: Our Favorite Players Championship Matchup Props article feature image
Credit:

Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chesson Hadley

If you’ve heard the FantasyLabs Flex podcast, you know that the man (Sleeze) and the machine (Davy) battle it out with their golf takes. Colin Davy builds a model every week to analyze the best matchup props, whereas Drew Stoltz (aka Sleeze), a former golf pro, relies on his inside-the-ropes knowledge. Often they disagree, but sometimes they don’t. And those times — the props they’re aligned on — have been profitable, going 4-1 over the past couple of weeks.

This piece will detail Sleeze’s picks and Colin’s data on those. Of course, we had to add our golf expert, Jason Sobel, into the mix as well. How do their picks align with Davy’s model? And especially the prop they’re both on? Take a look below …


Sleeze’s Picks

Phil Mickelson (-120) over Sergio Garcia

Sergio hasn’t shown any form of late, missing his last two cuts (Masters and Valero), and he’s made just four cuts in seven starts this year. Meanwhile, Phil is 11-for-12 on cuts made, with six top-10s, and is coming off a very sharp week at Quail Hollow. TPC Sawgrass takes driver out of Phil’s hands a lot, which is his biggest weakness, and puts more emphasis on his iron play and short game, which are two of his strengths.

Davy’s Model: Mickelson (-136) over Garcia

The Verdict: Agree

Ian Poulter (-110) over Tony Finau


Poulter backed up his win in Houston with a top-10 at Harbour Town, a course that is somewhat similar to TPC Sawgrass in that driver is not used frequently. Poulter has an advantage with his short game and putting, and he finished second at this course last year. Finau doesn’t get to utilize his length advantage, which is his biggest asset.

Davy’s Model: Finau (-157) over Poulter

The Verdict: Disagree

Branden Grace (+110) over Louis Oosthuizen

Grace is 9-for-9 on cuts made this year and has finished outside of the top 30 just once. He’s a straight driver of the ball and has a significantly better Long-Term Greens in Regulation (GIR) mark than Oosthuizen. Grace probably has lower upside than Oosthuizen but definitely is less volatile, which I think is an advantage on a course such as TPC Sawgrass. I like Grace in this matchup, especially since he is an underdog.

Davy’s Model: Grace (-120) over Oosthuizen

The Verdict: Agree


Sobel’s Picks

Jordan Spieth (-120) over Jason Day

Everyone is going to fade Spieth because of his three straight MCs here. Good. The course suits his game, and the law of averages works to his advantage this week.

Davy’s Model: Day (-134) over Spieth

The Verdict: Disagree

Emiliano Grillo (-135) over Kevin Kisner

Very quietly, Grillo has been putting together an excellent season. Kiz lost here in a playoff a few years ago, but all that means is that the public will probably be on him.

Davy’s Model: Grillo (-161) over Kisner

The Verdict: Agree

Dustin Johnson (-110) over Rory McIlroy

DJ leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, a huge stat at TPC Sawgrass. Rory said the other day that he loves this course — then amended that to “likes.” Sounds as if he’s trying to convince himself.

Davy’s Model: Johnson (-167) over McIlroy

The Verdict: Agree

Tommy Fleetwood (-105) over Francesco Molinari

The Italian owns a nice record at this event, but Fleetwood the Flusher is among the world’s best ball-strikers right now. Expect a strong week.

Davy’s Model: Fleetwood (-115) over Molinari

The Verdict: Agree


Double Down

Here is the matchup both Sleeze and Sobel picked …

Chesson Hadley (-120) over Russell Henley

Sleeze: Hadley is playing very solid golf, finishing in the top 20 in his past four starts. He also ranks 10th on tour in Greens in Regulation, which is a big advantage over Henley. One weakness for Hadley is driving accuracy, which should be minimized this week by hitting fewer drivers. Henley is coming off a missed cut at Quail Hollow last week and has only one top-10 on the year compared to Hadley’s six.

Sobel: Finally released from the exile of the Web.com Tour, Hadley has been consistently solid this season. I love him for a top-10 finish this week.

Davy’s Model: Henley (-137) over Hadley

The Verdict: Sleeze and Sobel agree; the Davy Model disagrees

Odds via sportsbook.ag

Pictured above: Chesson Hadley