The PGA Tour heads back to Colonial Country Club, host of the Fort Worth Invitational since 1946.
Colonial checks in at 7,209 yards for the par-70 course. Without the overwhelming length associated with some courses, Colonial has had a variety of winners claim the title.
The one thing that tends to separate the champions is their ability to score on par-4s. Nine of the previous 11 champions entered the week in the top 50 on tour in par-4 scoring.
Colonial also tends to be a second-shot golf course. Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott, Zach Johnson and Kevin Kisner are all recent winners and are among the best on tour in Strokes Gained: Approach.
The Field
Spieth is the headliner again this week and opens as a +900 favorite on Bovada. That's actually a reasonable number for Spieth considering his last three finishes here are second, first and second. With odds that are similar to the ones we'd see at Augusta in a much stronger field, just betting Spieth and hoping his putter heats up is a strategy I could see some employing here.
Beyond Spieth, Jon Rahm is next in line at +1400 with Justin Rose and Players champion Webb Simpson at +1800. Simpson garnered immediate respect from the books after going off as high as +10,000 just two weeks ago.
Rickie Fowler leads a group in the +2000 range that also includes Matt Kuchar, Scott, Jimmy Walker and Byron Nelson champion Aaron Wise.
The Favorites
There isn't much at the top of the board that I'm interested in. I mentioned Spieth, but betting guys at that price isn't my style.
I really liked Simpson heading into the week. Not only did he win his last start, he has been in the top five in his past two appearances at Colonial. But +1800 isn't for me. I'm hoping it isn't for anyone and maybe he'll crash into the +3000 range. I never thought I'd see the day when Simpson opened with better odds than Fowler, but here we are, as the books look determined not to get burned by Webb again.
Instead, I'll be starting my card with Scott at +2800. Scott is going to win the tee-to-green battle most weeks, so his stats will always check out on any course. The putter is always the question. He struggled last week again at the Byron Nelson, but at the Players and Wells Fargo Championship he actually gained strokes on the field with the flat stick for the first time in eight months. He also has a U.S Open berth on the line over the next couple of weeks. He ranks 61st in the world and needs to break into the top 60 by June 11 to punch a ticket to Shinnecock. Combine all that with the fact that he's won here before, and there are lot of positives leaning toward Scott this week.
For DFS analysis, read FantasyLabs' Fort Worth Invitational Breakdown.
The Mid-Tier
The +3000 range has a few guys I'm looking at this week. Brooks Koepka, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau and Jason Dufner all spark my interest in this range. They all have had some success recently, so the form is there. Dufner has a couple of runner-up finishes here as well. I'm going to monitor all three of them and see which way the money goes, then pick one or two from this group if their odds drift closer to +3500 or +4000.
I'm not really seeing much else that catches my eye further down the board. Kevin Na and Chris Kirk will draw some interest from me in the top-10 market in the +450 to +500 range. Si Woo Kim could be worth a shot at +9000. His best results have come on the shorter tracks.
The Longshots
Colonial has not been a place for the longshots to come through. As I mentioned, Spieth, Scott, ZJ and Kisner are all recent winners here, and none would have been higher than +5000. We can look back over the past 15 years and add guys such as Phil Mickelson, Steve Stricker, Boo Weekley and Kenny Perry to that group.
Colonial usually identifies a strong champion. We don't really get the fluky, out-of-nowhere winner here, and because of that, I'm really limiting my longshot bets and will grab an extra guy in the +3000 to +4000 range instead.
Two triple-digit guys I'll back are Kevin Tway at 140-1 and C.T. Pan at 200-1 on Sportsbook. Tway is coming off a top-10 last week in which he gained nearly five strokes with the approach, so I'll take a chance on that carrying over this week. Pan was in the top 10 last week in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, but the putter was just not there. We'll see if he can get the flat stick rolling on a different green surface, changing from bermuda to bentgrass this week. Both will be top-20 plays in that +500 to +600 range as well.
