Will Paul Casey’s Surprising U.S. Open Struggles Continue?

Jun 11, 2018 1:02 PM EDT

For analysis of the top 85 golfers in the field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course, plus a variety of weighted metrics.


The Info: Paul Casey

DFS Pricing: $8,000 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel

U.S. Open History (2013-2017): T-45, T-56, T-39, MC, 26

Odds: +5000 to win, +400 top-10 finish, +185 top-20 finish, -400 to make cut, +275 to miss cut

Best Odds Value: +5000 to win

Best Matchup Value: Paul Casey (-140) over Louis Oosthuizen

Tee Times: 7:40 a.m. (Thursday); 1:25 p.m. (Friday)

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The Outlook

One of the best players to not have a major, Casey actually owns mediocre high-end history at the U.S. Open. He has just one top 10 in 14 events and hasn’t been inside the top 25 since 2007. That poor history is a little surprising given his excellent ball-striking and all-around play: He’s tied for fourth in Long-Term Adjusted Round Score and sits 10th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green this season. He has a win this year at the Valspar, and while he’s not the longest player off the tee, his approach shots should keep him in the tournament. I’m not interested in +4000 to-win odds, but he could be an interesting low-owned value play in DFS.


The Metrics

Here’s how Casey ranks in the U.S. Open field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

  • Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: T-4th
  • Recent Adjusted Round Score: T-15th
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 10th
  • Long-Term Driving Distance: 48th
  • Strokes Gained: Approach: 7th

Want more U.S. Open coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 85 best golfers in the field.

Credit:

Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Follow Bryan Mears on Twitter
@bryan_mears

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