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Perry’s 2020 TOUR Championship Betting Guide, Odds, Picks & Predictions: Backing Berger Again

Perry’s 2020 TOUR Championship Betting Guide, Odds, Picks & Predictions: Backing Berger Again article feature image

Tracy Wilcox/Getty Images. Pictured: Dustin Johnson and Daniel Berger.

The favorites continue to reign in the FedEx Cup playoffs.

The top two on the odds board heading into this week — Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm — needed a playoff to decide the BMW Championship winner last Sunday.

Rahm came out on top and enters the TOUR Championship second behind only Johnson.

Those two will headline the field at East Lake Golf Club on Thursday as the 2019-2020 season concludes.


The Course

East Lake has played host to the TOUR Championship each year since 2004. It’s a par 70 that measures 7,346 yards and is a fairly challenging test for this elite field.

The approach game is usually the what separates the top of the field here. Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods both have two wins here. Henrik Stenson and Xander Schauffele have also notched victories as well.

We’ll usually get a score in the 10 to 12-under par range coming out on top, though with the new handicap system introduced last year, that will likely change going forward.

The Field

With only 30 guys this week, there’s not too much room to look down the board. Most books will have two separate markets up. One for the winner of the TOUR Championship and the other for the best scores without the handicap included. Make sure to check the market your betting because the odds will be vastly different.

Johnson is at the top of the board, opening at +175 to win the TOUR Championship and at +500 to have the low score of the week. He begins the event at 10-under par in the handicap system, two shots ahead of Rahm next in line at +275 and +550 in those two respective markets.

As you can see, the odds are quite different depending on how you want to bet it.

McIlroy is in the reserve spot of Johnson and Rahm, as he’s +1000 to have the low score of the week, but further down at +2500 to win the TOUR Championship in starting seven shots behind DJ.

From a betting perspective, if there’s ever a week to take off, this is probably it. The actual TOUR Championship market is of no interest to me at all. It’s hard enough to win a bet against Johnson, Rahm and Thomas from a level starting place. I have no desire to also give them shots too, and I don’t bet golf to lay +175 before a tournament has even begun.

Instead, I’ll make one play in the low 72-hole market and go back to Daniel Berger one more time at +1800 (Bet365). Berger has been playing well for months now. He wasn’t at his best last week, but overall he’s been one of the more consistent players since the restart. The shift back to Bermuda greens is always a plus for him as well. He hasn’t finished outside the top 10 on the surface since January.

Berger begins six shots behind DJ in a tie for sixth. He doesn’t need to catch DJ for this particular bet, but I like that he’s far enough up the leaderboard that he’s still in contention somewhat. Hopefully, that will lead to some more aggressive play out of him, and maybe he’ll be able to make up enough ground to come out with the best score of the week.

[Bet Daniel Berger now at bet365. NJ only.]

Overall though, this isn’t really the greatest betting board. It’s easier for fans to follow because they know at all times who’s leading the FedEx Cup. But it definitely takes a lot of the intrigue out from the gambling side of things.

The TOUR Championship Card

  • Daniel Berger Low 72 holes +1800 (1.83 units)

Total Stake 1.83 units

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