Valero Texas Open PrizePicks 2024: First-Round Plays for Thursday
Via David Crane/Getty Images. Pictured: Keith Mitchell takes a look at his chip shot on the second hole during the third round at the Genesis Invitational at the Riviera Country Club Saturday, February 18, 2023.
Here's everything you need to know about the Valero Texas Open PrizePicks 2024: First-Round Plays for Thursday's PGA Tour event at TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course).
TPC San Antonio is a par-72, 7,438-yard track designed by Greg Norman that rewards golfers who can stick their approach shots close for simple birdie looks.
Find my Valero Texas Open 2024 PrizePicks for Thursday below.
Valero Texas Open PrizePicks
Corey Conners: More Than 13 Greens in Regulation
Not only is Corey Conners the defending champion at TPC San Antonio, but he is going for this third victory here. On top of his two wins at this event, Conners also posted T35, T14 and T26 finishes over his other three appearances.
He has never missed a cut here while hoisting the trophy twice, and it makes sense why Conners performs so well at this Norman-designed course given that it is a track that rewards ball-strikers and specifically strong approach players over anything else. That is the strongest part of Conners's game, as he has gained strokes on approach in 12 consecutive tournaments and ranks sixth on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach.
If his approach game is strong, then he must be hitting greens. This season, Conners ranks second on Tour in Greens in Regulation Percentage, only trailing the esteemed Scottie Scheffler.
Finally, Conners hit at least 13 greens in regulation in all four of his rounds last season en route to his victory at TPC San Antonio.
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Keith Mitchell: More Than 4 Birdies or Better
Keith Mitchell is another golfer to back on Thursday in what I believe is a good buy-low spot. Yes, he missed the cut last week in Houston, but Mitchell also posted five top-20 finishes over the eight prior tournaments.
He has now gained strokes on approach in nine consecutive tournaments and ranks 10th on Tour in SG: Approach. With a strong iron game, it is not shocking that Mitchell has had success at this venue, finishing 26th in his first appearance here and following that up with a 17th-place finish his last time out at TPC San Antonio.
Mitchell also ranks 42nd on Tour in Birdie Average at 4.29 birdies per round.
Aaron Rai: More Than 4 Birdies or Better
Aaron Rai is the last golfer to back on Thursday. After a slow start to the 2024 season, Rai has really started to dial in his game as he has made the weekend in four of his past five tournaments and is coming off a season-best seventh-place finish at last week's Texas Children's Houston Open.
The main reason for this turnaround has been Rai's improved iron play as he now ranks 19th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach. I keep going back to this key metric because TPC San Antonio is a second-shot course.
Last season, each of the top-four finishers also ranked among the top four in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. Additionally, like Mitchell, Rai has improved year-over-year through his first two appearances at this venue.
Also like Mitchell, Rai has been a birdie machine as he is averaging 4.23 birdies per round, good for 48th on Tour.
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