Betting Picks for WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play: Our Favorite Outright Bets at Austin Country Club
Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images. Pictured: Jon Rahm
- The format for the 2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play means bettors will need to use game theory as much as statistical data when placing their outright bets.
- Here are Team GolfBet's favorite outright bets for the 2021 WGC Match Play.
The 2021 WGC-Dell Match Play is made for March. Just like the NCAA Tournament, the WGC Match Play features 64 entrants and a format that is ripe for madness. That means it is also a ton of fun to bet.
Here are our favorite outright bets for the 2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club:
Sergio Garcia (+4500)
There are plenty of things working in Sergio’s favor this week. He’s in form, having grabbed the opening-round lead at THE PLAYERS two weeks ago before finishing in a share of ninth place. He’s experienced, making his 18th career start in this event, plus being the Ryder Cup all-time leader in points. And he’s also playing a home game, having moved years ago to the Austin area.
I’ve always believed that unlike most other players, for whom results dictate happiness, Sergio’s level of happiness often dictates his results – and sleeping in his own bed this week should have him in the proper spirits to get through a tough opening group, while leaving some gas in the tank for this weekend.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+4000)
We should know how this bet is going to go right away. Fitzpatrick opens up against Jordan Spieth and whoever wins that match has an excellent chance of getting through this group over Matthew Wolff and Corey Conners.
Wolff is a guy we love to see right now. He’s been injured and completely out of form this year. As for Conners, if players remember not to concede four-footers to him, he’ll likely give you a hole or two during the match.
Dustin Johnson (+1400)
This is just too good of a number to pass up on the No. 1 player in the world at an event that he won in 2017 on this course. Sure, DJ has been a little off of late, but he never plays well at TPC Sawgrass and plenty of players struggled at The Concession. But don’t forget he won in Saudi Arabia in February so it’s not like the form is a huge worry.
DJ now comes into the Match Play with a light group, where he is even money on DraftKings to come out and make it to the Sweet 16. We just don’t get DJ at these types of numbers and if he comes out closer to the player in Saudi than he was in Florida a few weeks ago, he can dominate this event from beginning to end.
Jordan Spieth (+2500)
I typically never back Jordan Spieth, but it just makes too much sense this week. The former Texas Longhorn and Dallas resident should feel comfortable in his home state. He also comes into the WGC Match Play in terrific form and while not quite there just yet, is starting to look more like the elite player he once was.
Spieth could always roll the rock and make putts. When he was struggling, it was due to his erratic off-the-tee game and poor iron play. In his past five starts he has been roughly average off of the tee (which is perfectly fine for him) and excellent on approach — gaining 4.5 strokes on the field.
Spieth has had some success in match play events in the past and everyone remembers how great he was at the 2014 Ryder Cup. It would seem fitting if he made his return to the winner’s circle for the first time since the 2017 Open Championship at the WGC Match Play in his home state of Texas.
Jon Rahm (+1400)
As it stands there are three co favorites on DraftKings, with DJ, Bryson DeChambeau and Rahm all sitting at 14/1. To my eye, Rahm has by far the easiest path to the finals.
Assuming he gets by his group, which consists of Ryan Palmer, Shane Lowry and Sebastian Munoz, he would likely have a date with Daniel Berger in the Round of 16, who as of now is still nursing a rib injury that caused him to WD from the Honda Classic last week. If Berger doesn’t make it out of group play, Rahm would have to deal with one of Erik van Rooyen, Harris English or Brendon Todd, all three of which he should dispose of rather easily. In the elite eight he’d potentially match up with either McIlroy or Schauffele, both of whom are all out of sorts at the moment.
The bottom line is both DJ and DeChambeau have much tougher paths to the finals, having to deal with each other, as well as potentially the red hot Morikawa, Finau or Hovland.
Rahm was in contention at THE PLAYERS before a final round 73 torpedoed his chances. His game has looked as strong as ever though, as he gained over two strokes tee-to-green in three of his four rounds at Sawgrass. Rahm ranks ninth on approach in this field over his past four rounds as well.
When you combine his recent form, his potential path to the final four and a larger than normal 14/1 number, he checks all the boxes for me this week.