Sobel’s WGC-Mexico Third-Round Matchup Bets: Will Tiger Put On a Show in Round 3?

Welcome to Moving Day in Mexico City, where some low numbers in the altitude should be coming this afternoon.

Dustin Johnson leads Rory McIlroy by two strokes, but our matchup card starts with some players still chasing.

Branden Grace over Gary Woodland (+135)

11:27 a.m. ET

It’s not so much that I love Grace in this matchup; I just love the value. These are similarly talented players, each of whom posted opening scores of 71-71. The price should probably be closer to even, so take the guy on the plus side of things.

Tiger Woods over Charles Howell III by -0.5 (Even)

12:39 p.m. ET

Other than possibly Phil Mickelson, I don’t think any other player has answered more questions about Tiger Woods over the years than Howell, a longtime friend and admirer of his. If there’s been a knock on CH3 over the years, it’s that he perhaps lacks a killer instinct. Watching the Tiger Show could be distracting — and yes, the recent trend is that it will indeed be a show, as he’s played better as tourneys have progressed. He might not do better than second-round 66, but it should be close.

Ian Poulter over Kiradech Aphibarnrat by -0.5 (Even)

12:51 p.m. ET

We’ve seen this before from the Barnrat: Play well for a few days, look like he can hang, then fall way off the pace in the weekend rounds. Last season, of the three WGC stroke-play events he played, Aphibarnrat was a combined 17 strokes worse on the weekend. Poulter, meanwhile, is striking the ball really well and leads the field in total birdies so far.