Welcome to the biggest party of 2023. Over 500,000 fans are expected to walk through the turnstiles for this week's WM Phoenix Open and create a circus-like atmosphere that has to be seen to be believed if you are new to golf.
The best way I can describe the mayhem would be to tell you to visualize a costume-themed frat party with thousands of attendees at the 16th green at TPC Scottsdale.
Foul shots are going to be jeered. Good outcomes booed. The excellent by-products will be manically celebrated to the tune of beer cans being thrown toward the player who creates highlight-reel moments.
However, there is still golf to be played and tons of data for us to pull from as we attempt to make the most educated and informed decisions possible.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
WM Phoenix Open
J.T. Poston
Are you worried about the ownership of J.T. Poston on DFS sites and trying to find another way to gain exposure to a golfer who is arguably mispriced in various sectors? Could I interest you in grabbing Poston to finish 50th or better (-120) from our friends at Bet365?
Poston ranked inside the top 35 golfers in this field when I generated a triumvirate output calculation between aggression, par-five scoring and total driving, and the recent increases over his past 24 rounds for GIR percentage, weighted proximity and scoring fast/firm greens helped propel him to a respectable 17th-place grade in my model.
The floor looks sturdy with his four consecutive top-21 finishes and an equally impressive four top 36s at this course since 2019. Poston is mispriced in a handful of sectors, but maybe not more so than we are receiving with this Bet365 offer.
Davis Thompson
I discussed this general sentiment with my partner Nick Bretwisch during this week's Links + Locks Podcast. If you want to hear the more extended, spoken version of this answer, I recommend giving that show a listen, but Davis Thompson's boom-or-bust nature has the potential to play nicely in a top-20 market over on BetMGM at +600.
Thompson's ball-striking has climbed to inside the top 10 of my model during his short-lived career on tour, and even though the short-game metrics generate this troublesome path if you are looking for any safety with your output returns, the high-end production is worth a second look if you want to swing for the fence. Shooting up the board with placement bets always comes down to the floor versus ceiling estimations.
Keith Mitchell
We will head back to Bet365 to close out the placement market this week and hone in on Keith Mitchell — a golfer who has been volatile in the past, but exhibits one of the better combinations of total driving and par-five scoring of anyone in this field.
Mitchell's 47th (or better) that is being offered inside the Bet365 placement market might be marginally slow to move when we consider his outright odds have been plummeting by the second. Add that to his excellent driving ability and four top-39 finishes over the past five events, and you get a golfer trending in the right direction for various sectors.
If you want to dart-throw a first-round leader bet, Mitchell at 66/1 on BetMGM could also be worth a few pennies for a Thursday sweat.
