Braves vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - July 27, 2026

This Mets team is about as inconsistent as they come, but I think they show up in a big way tonight against their NL East rival. I’m mostly looking to fade Martin Perez in this spot, but I’ve also been impressed with Zac Thornton through 23 big league innings. Martin Perez was a regression candidate early last season, and his estimators are showing he’s a regression candidate once again. Perez currently owns a 3.38 ERA with a 4.58 xERA, 4.45 FIP, and 4.29 xFIP. He’s clearly been fortunate considering he hasn’t posted a SIERA under 4.50 since 2022. This is a guy I’ve faded in the past and have no problem continuing to fade. This Mets team has also seen Perez very well over the years. Across 144 plate appearances, New York is hitting .304 with a .297 xBA and .432 xSLG. Perez has also been significantly worse on the road, posting a 2.72 ERA at home compared to a 4.15 ERA on the road. I like what I’ve seen from Zac Thornton. While I doubt he continues pitching at this elite level, I do think he’s a solid arm. In 13 innings at home, he owns a 0.69 ERA. He’s not overpowering anyone, sitting 92-93 mph with a six pitch mix, but he pounds the zone and doesn’t beat himself with walks. Thornton has also faced some very tough offenses and is still putting up elite numbers. Sure, Ronald Acuna is back, but the Braves offense has been brutal against lefties, and they’ve also been a much worse offense on the road. I’ll avoid the bullpens and just take the Mets through the first five innings.

@cowhitchurch https://myaction.app/l6hZAcBu74b

THE BAT X is forecasting 14.55 pitching outs for Zach Thornton compared to 16.78 pitching outs implied by the oddsmakers, so I believe there is value here. If you take the under, you'd be projected to win 68% of the time, resulting in a 46% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $46.16. This play is good down to at least -162. Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/mlb?ref=zdlkmgz

Bet to 8.5 (-112)