Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - June 10, 2025

Mariners at Diamondbacks

1:40 am • ARID

Seattle Mariners

87-69

4 - 8

Arizona Diamondbacks

79-77

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Kelly			4.23	3-3
E.Hancock			5.13	4-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mariners 87-69	+1.5	+1.5-139	o9.5-109	+139
Diamondbacks 79-77	u9	-1.5+122	u9.5-112	-167

Tuesday 1:40 a.m.

June 10, 2025

Chase FieldPhoenix

M.Kelly u5.5 Ks-105

1.05u

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

M.Kelly u5.5 Ks-105

0.25u

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

M.Kelly u5.5 Ks-105

1.05u

Kelly has cleared this number in six straight games, averaging 7.5 Ks per start during that stretch — but my expected K model suggests he should have averaged closer to 6.1, making him a strong sell-high candidate. The Mariners might look like a plus matchup on paper with the 8th-highest K rate in MLB, but that’s heavily skewed by their home park. T-Mobile Park has the highest park factor for Ks, and Seattle ranks 2nd-highest in K% at home — but just 20th on the road. That’s important here, especially with this game being at Chase Field, one of the toughest parks for strikeouts. Kelly’s K rate is also 3% lower at home this year, aligning with those park factors. Seattle has a high whiff rate against most pitches (again inflated by their home environment), but their best contact pitch has been cutters — which Kelly throws 19% of the time. That could lead to more contact than usual here. I’m projecting Kelly closer to -150 to stay under 5.5, and he’s the latest member of Club 17 (now 13-4), with a +17.0 score thanks to his projection, sell-high label, and matchup factors.

ARI -120

I actually parlayed this with a live tennis game, but for better odds and recap purposes I’ll be playing Dbacks to NOT bat bottom 9

Over 5 (F5)+100

SEA +146

C.Carroll o2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-110

M.Kelly u17.5 Outs+150

M.Kelly o5.5 Ks-105

0.95u

K.Marte o0.5 HR+525

0.25u

SEA +154

0.65u

ARI -174 (F5)

0.29u

M.Kelly o5.5 Ks-106

0.94u

More strikeouts for Kelly this year potentially thanks to more changeups and four-seamers and fewer cutters. Have him projected at 6.41 strikeouts tonight.

M.Kelly o5.5 Hits Allowed+112

0.75u

SEA +145

0.5u

Bet to +140

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MLB Public Betting

Diamondbacks are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Diamondbacks are 42-35 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Diamondbacks' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 38 of Diamondbacks' 78 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	80-75	38-40	42-35	36-52	43-23
Mariners	67-89	34-41	33-48	42-66	24-21

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Diamondbacks	77-72-6	38-35-5	39-37-1	43-40-5	34-31-1
Mariners	85-65-6	38-32-5	47-33-1	55-47-6	28-17

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	79-77	42-36	37-40	45-43	33-33
Mariners	87-69	48-27	39-42	63-45	22-23

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 8th	@CIN	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 9.5	CIN -121
Jun 7th	@CIN	L 1-13	-1.5 L	O 9.5	CIN -114
Jun 7th	@CIN	L 3-4	-	U 8.5	CIN +300
Jun 5th	@ATL	W 11-10	+1.5 W	O 9	ARI +130
Jun 4th	@ATL	W 2-0	+1.5 W	U 7.5	ARI +146

John Curtiss
RP
Curtiss is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RE.Hancock, P	85	5	3	2
RE.Bazardo, P	16	0.2	1	0
LG.Speier, P	7	0.1	0	0
RC.Legumina, P	43	2	3	2
RA.Munoz, P	8	1	1	0
RC.Vargas, P	24	1.1	2	3

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Crawford, SS	2-3	0	0	0
2J.Rodriguez, CF	2-5	0	0	0
3C.Raleigh, C	0-5	0	0	0
4J.Polanco, DH	1-5	0	0	0
5R.Arozarena, LF	2-5	0	0	0
6R.Tellez, 1B	0-2	0	0	0
6D.Moore, PH	0-2	1	0	0
6D.Moore, 3B	0-2	1	0	0
7M.Mastrobuoni, RF	0-2	0	0	0
7D.Solano, PH	1-3	1	0	1
7D.Solano, 1B	1-3	1	0	1
8C.Young, 2B	2-5	1	0	1
9B.Williamson, 3B	1-2	0	0	0
9D.Canzone, PH	1-3	1	1	2
9D.Canzone, RF	1-3	1	1	2

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Kelly, P	92	6	7	0
LK.Backhus, P	15	0.2	1	0
RR.Thompson, P	1	0.1	0	0
RS.Miller, P	9	1	0	0
RJ.Martinez, P	19	0.2	2	1
RJ.Brigham, P	15	0	0	3
RJ.Morillo, P	23	1.1	1	0
LJ.Beeks, P	12	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Carroll, RF	1-5	1	1	1
2K.Marte, 2B	1-5	1	0	1
3G.Perdomo, SS	1-3	2	0	0
4J.Naylor, 1B	3-5	2	1	5
5E.Suarez, 3B	0-5	0	0	0
5I.Vargas, PR	0-0	0	0	0
5I.Vargas, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
6L.Gurriel, LF	2-3	0	0	1
6T.Tawa, LF	0-0	0	0	0
7P.Smith, DH	0-3	0	0	0
8A.Thomas, CF	2-5	1	0	0
9J.Herrera, C	0-3	1	0	0