Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - June 10, 2025

Mariners at Diamondbacks

1:40 am • ARID

Seattle Mariners

4-6

4 - 8

Arizona Diamondbacks

5-5

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Kelly			4.23	3-3
E.Hancock			4.90	4-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mariners 4-6	+1.5	+1.5-139	o9.5-109	+139
Diamondbacks 5-5	u9	-1.5+122	u9.5-112	-167

Tuesday 1:40 a.m.

June 10, 2025

Chase FieldPhoenix

M.Kelly u5.5 Ks-105

1.05u

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

M.Kelly u5.5 Ks-105

0.25u

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

M.Kelly u5.5 Ks-105

1.05u

Kelly has cleared this number in six straight games, averaging 7.5 Ks per start during that stretch — but my expected K model suggests he should have averaged closer to 6.1, making him a strong sell-high candidate. The Mariners might look like a plus matchup on paper with the 8th-highest K rate in MLB, but that’s heavily skewed by their home park. T-Mobile Park has the highest park factor for Ks, and Seattle ranks 2nd-highest in K% at home — but just 20th on the road. That’s important here, especially with this game being at Chase Field, one of the toughest parks for strikeouts. Kelly’s K rate is also 3% lower at home this year, aligning with those park factors. Seattle has a high whiff rate against most pitches (again inflated by their home environment), but their best contact pitch has been cutters — which Kelly throws 19% of the time. That could lead to more contact than usual here. I’m projecting Kelly closer to -150 to stay under 5.5, and he’s the latest member of Club 17 (now 13-4), with a +17.0 score thanks to his projection, sell-high label, and matchup factors.

Over 9-118

0.5u

Hitter friendly park - Hancock 4.41 SIERA/5.19 xERA - ARI 120/123 wRC+ Hm/v RHP, SEA 117/111 - both below average defenses and bullpens.

K.Marte o0.5 HR+360

$0.50

ARI -120

I actually parlayed this with a live tennis game, but for better odds and recap purposes I’ll be playing Dbacks to NOT bat bottom 9

Over 5 (F5)+100

SEA +146

C.Carroll o2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-110

ARI -1+100

$1.00

M.Kelly u17.5 Outs+150

M.Kelly o5.5 Ks-105

0.95u

K.Marte o0.5 HR+525

0.25u

SEA +154

0.65u

ARI -174 (F5)

0.29u

K.Marte o1.5 Total Bases+115

$1.00

M.Kelly o5.5 Hits Allowed+112

0.75u

SEA +145

0.5u

Bet to +140

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No props found

MLB Public Betting

Diamondbacks are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Diamondbacks are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Diamondbacks are 2-1 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Diamondbacks' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Diamondbacks' 7 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	7-3	5-2	2-1	3-1	3-2
Mariners	4-6	3-4	1-2	3-5	1-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Diamondbacks	6-4	4-3	2-1	2-2	3-2
Mariners	5-5	4-3	1-2	5-3	0-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	5-5	5-2	0-3	3-1	1-4
Mariners	4-6	3-4	1-2	3-5	1-1

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 8th	@CIN	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 9.5	CIN -121
Jun 7th	@CIN	L 1-13	-1.5 L	O 9.5	CIN -114
Jun 7th	@CIN	L 3-4	-	U 8.5	CIN +300
Jun 5th	@ATL	W 11-10	+1.5 W	O 9	ARI +130
Jun 4th	@ATL	W 2-0	+1.5 W	U 7.5	ARI +146

Miles Mastrobuoni
3B
Mastrobuoni is out with calf
Out
Bryce Miller
SP
Miller is out with oblique
Out

Corbin Burnes
SP
Burnes is out with elbow
Out
Lourdes Gurriel
LF
Gurriel is out with knee
Out
Merrill Kelly
SP
Kelly is out with back
Out
Blake Walston
SP
Walston is out with elbow
Out
Tyler Locklear
1B
Locklear is out with elbow
Out

Cristian Mena
SP
Mena is doubtful with shoulder
Doubtful

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RE.Hancock, P	85	5	3	2
RE.Bazardo, P	16	0.2	1	0
LG.Speier, P	7	0.1	0	0
RC.Legumina, P	43	2	3	2
RA.Munoz, P	8	1	1	0
RC.Vargas, P	24	1.1	2	3

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Crawford, SS	2-3	0	0	0
2J.Rodriguez, CF	2-5	0	0	0
3C.Raleigh, C	0-5	0	0	0
4J.Polanco, DH	1-5	0	0	0
5R.Arozarena, LF	2-5	0	0	0
6R.Tellez, 1B	0-2	0	0	0
6D.Moore, PH	0-2	1	0	0
6D.Moore, 3B	0-2	1	0	0
7M.Mastrobuoni, RF	0-2	0	0	0
7D.Solano, PH	1-3	1	0	1
7D.Solano, 1B	1-3	1	0	1
8C.Young, 2B	2-5	1	0	1
9B.Williamson, 3B	1-2	0	0	0
9D.Canzone, PH	1-3	1	1	2
9D.Canzone, RF	1-3	1	1	2

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Kelly, P	92	6	7	0
LK.Backhus, P	15	0.2	1	0
RR.Thompson, P	1	0.1	0	0
RS.Miller, P	9	1	0	0
RJ.Martinez, P	19	0.2	2	1
RJ.Brigham, P	15	0	0	3
RJ.Morillo, P	23	1.1	1	0
LJ.Beeks, P	12	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Carroll, RF	1-5	1	1	1
2K.Marte, 2B	1-5	1	0	1
3G.Perdomo, SS	1-3	2	0	0
4J.Naylor, 1B	3-5	2	1	5
5E.Suarez, 3B	0-5	0	0	0
5I.Vargas, PR	0-0	0	0	0
5I.Vargas, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
6L.Gurriel, LF	2-3	0	0	1
6T.Tawa, LF	0-0	0	0	0
7P.Smith, DH	0-3	0	0	0
8A.Thomas, CF	2-5	1	0	0
9J.Herrera, C	0-3	1	0	0