Reds vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - May 21, 2025

Like the ballpark factors and am fine with the matchup. Reds have been a bottom-10 offense versus lefties this season. I am worried a little about Elly and Hays but game has a total of just 8 so banking on a pitcher’s duel today.

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Heaney hasn’t hit this in 4 straight, so most action is likely on the under — but I think there’s sneaky value here. He has reverse splits, striking out RHB at a slightly higher rate, and the Reds are sending out 8 right-handed bats, which actually works in his favor. Heaney leans on his slow curve almost exclusively vs. righties — it has a 41% whiff rate — and his best putaway pitch is the slider, which the Reds whiff against more than any team in MLB. They also take a ton of pitches and have the 3rd highest chase whiff rate, which plays right into his hands. Ump Emil Jimenez is inconsistent but tends to expand the zone low/middle away to righties — right where Heaney likes to miss with his changeup. I project this closer to -145 — not a huge edge, but the pitch mix, splits, and matchup all quietly line up in his favor.

Targeting the Pirates offense again, this time with Singer. Singer hasn’t been sharp this season with a 5.01 ERA but his xERA is 3.99. Pirates only implied for 3.9 runs today and they don’t have Andrew McCutchen or Joey Bart in the lineup. This is more so just a bet against this Pirates offense that is averaging 2.92 runs per game.

Cold offenses take under Overall: 800-563-61,59% (ROI:13%) Season:13-9-0,59% (ROI:12%)

Bet to +100