2020 MLB Odds and Betting Preview: Line Shopping for the Best 2020 MLB Win Totals and Futures
Richard Rodriguez, Getty Images. Pictured: Shin-Soo Choo
Now that I established some updated projections for 2020, we can look to the betting market to find the books with the best win total and divisional lines to place our bets.
But first, you should note that all of these books over-inflate their win total markets; which means that the total number of wins amongst the 30 teams adds up to more wins than are available during an MLB season (2,430).
How do these books compare in terms of inflation?
As a result, you’re more likely to find value betting unders at Bet365 than you might be at other books.
Win Total Markets
When win totals are initially released, some books have substantially different lines than others, creating huge opportunities to middle.
By this point in the offseason, however, the listed total for each of these teams has generally moved towards a consensus number – but, some discrepancies remain.
The Cincinnati Reds, for example, range between 83.5 and 86.5 wins depending on the book, while the St. Louis Cardinals range from 85.5 to 88.5 in the betting market:
For either team, a bettor could target a middle by betting the over and under at separate books.
I might look to buy a share of the Philadelphia under at 85.5, or the St. Louis under at 88.5, and would consider the Atlanta under at 91.5.
All remaining NL teams have a win total range within two, but there are additional discrepancies in the American League.
When this article was originally written, the Rangers stood at 80.5 wins at William Hill – and 76.5 at DraftKings. They’re now back under 80 wins everywhere, but a bettor could still look to middle with an under 79.5.
Following the Mookie Betts trade, the Red Sox total has fallen from an opening number of 93.5 to as low as 84.5 at some shops. I would bet their Over down to 85.5.
The Astros have also been dinged throughout their tumultuous offseason, moving from 98 down to as low as 94 – though they have seen some sharp resistance at that number.
Meanwhile, the Yankees are now at 101.5 wins or more everywhere, including a high of 103 at William Hill, and if that number continues to rise by opening day I might look to play an under.
As for the divisional market, I tried to highlight the best odds available at each book, but I primarily see value in playing the Angels at +800, Athletics at +450 or +500, Reds at +400, and White Sox at +400 to win their respective divisions: