2022 Home Run Derby Boosts & Promos Worth Betting
Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: 2019 Home Run Derby champion Pete Alonso.
With the Home Run Derby as one of the only bet-able events on Monday, sportsbooks are rolling out creative odds boosts and promotions.
None of these are going to count for tracking and not being input in the app. They are either on a book I don’t currently cover or are not available to many people on that sportsbooks. These are all the ones I’ve seen from my Discord — feel free to DM me with any ones I may have missed.
(Edit: The DraftKings Alonso play and FanDuel flash boost are widely available and will count/ be tracked as they were tweeted).
Boost: Bet on a player to win the Derby and get $1 per home run hit by them in the first round:
Plays: Acuna +700 and Alonso +175 are the best plays here. They are neck and neck in terms of odds to hit the most home runs in Round 1 with Alonso favored, but DK has Acuna with a higher over/under for Round 1 homers due to Acuna going first.
The argument mathematically for Acuna here is his line on MGM at +700 is relatively better than Alonso at +175, and books are projecting Acuna with same or more first round home runs in all likelihood.
Boost: Bet on a player to win the Derby and get $1 free bet per home run hit by them in their highest round.
Play: Schwarber +290 I believe is the best play, followed by Alonso +155. The lines are not great relative to the market but we will most likely get multiple rounds and a better relative line vs. Alonso at +155.
The reason Schwarber wasn’t a good play for the MGM promo is because he isn’t expected to have a big first round as he will be done after he beats Albert Pujols, who has the lowest implied total. But with this promo, we’re getting $1 for all his home runs.
Flashboost: Over 493.5 feet for longest home run hit in the Derby boosted to +125. I will post this one on Twitter assuming it is still strong in an hour or two. Right now it is +EV everywhere with consensus lines having it around +12%.
NJ only boost: If you have Schwarber/Alonso to win Round 1 matchup boosted to +130, it is about +13% EV as of this writeup.
PA only boost: Schwarber and Soto each to win their first round matchup boosted to +150. I have this at about 19% EV.
NY only boost: Pete Alonso to win the derby boosted to +250. I have this at about 3-5% EV.
Illinois only boost: Schwarber to win the derby boosted to +450. I have this at about 8-10% EV.
DK released this promo this afternoon and while there aren’t a ton of lines available to compare to, it’s around 12.5% EV.
Must bet oddsboost on Draftkings:
Pete alonso to hit 39+ home runs boosted to +125.
Not a ton of lines for this but 38.5 seems to be the consensus 50/50 line giving this a ~+12.5% EV!
Bet it now! (Link below $25 max)
Will add this to the action article https://t.co/3XmGXi1bR9
— The Promoguy (@ThePromoguy123) July 18, 2022
Like FanDuel, Bet365 has Alonso boosted to win the Derby to +250. I have it 3-5% EV.
Boost: Place $50 in cumulative cash wagers on the Home run Derby/ All Star Game and get $25 in Ticketmaster Ticket cash.
I’m not going to put a conversion rate on Ticketmaster cash but it’s +EV if you would use it on tickets anyway.