Angels vs. White Sox Odds, Pick, Prediction: Patrick Sandoval Due To Regress (May 2)
Bob Levey/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Sandoval.
- The White Sox are favored in the finale of a four-game series against the Angels this afternoon.
- Lefty Patrick Sandoval will start for the Halos opposite Chicago's Dylan Cease.
- Nicholas Martin breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.
Angels vs. White Sox Odds
|White Sox Odds||-131|
|Over/Under||7.5 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||2:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Los Angeles Angels will wrap their four-game set with the White Sox Monday afternoon, after a wild finish on Sunday saw the Angels hang on for a 6-5 victory and 2-1 series lead.
The White Sox have started 8-13 and will hope Dylan Cease can keep this powerful Angels lineup in check. Los Angeles will counter with Patrick Sandoval, who has followed up a pleasantly surprising 2021 campaign with an excellent start this year. In his last start, Sandoval threw seven scoreless innings and struck out nine in Cleveland.
Should we expect these two to continue the early season dominance Monday?
Is Sandoval’s Success Sustainable?
It may be quite early on in this 2022 campaign, but at 15-8 the Angels have taken a step toward potentially contending for a playoff spot.
Sandoval’s excellent form to begin the campaign has been a factor in the Angels early success. Sandoval is yet to allow an earned run in 15 innings pitched with a stellar xERA of 1.86.
The 25-year-old left-hander hasn’t allowed any damage, but he has still posted a strong but not elite hard-hit rate of 36.4%, which is actually above his mark from last season. He has pitched to a 4.55 QOPA so far in 2022, which is a hair below his 4.56 mark in 2021.
Sandoval features middling fastball velocity with a lower spin rate, and it doesn’t seem very likely that batters will continue to post such lowly results against him moving forward. His chase rate is down in 2022, as well, while the walk rate is up at 10%.
Los Angeles has started the season very effectively at the plate and will face hard-throwing righty in Cease today. The Angels have crushed right-handed pitching this season, with a 129 wRC+ and .344 wOBA.
Shohei Ohtani exited Sunday’s game with groin tightness, and his status for Monday’s contest remains unclear. Obviously, the left-handed-hitting MVP would obviously be a massive loss against Cease.
White Sox Still Producing Without Key Bats
Chicago has crushed left-handed hitting to begin this season, managing a league-leading 146 wRC+ rating and .364 wOBA. The White Sox were excellent against lefties in 2021, as well, with a 113 wRC+ and .334 wOBA.
We know this White Sox order is a little depleted right now with Eloy Jimenez recently joining Yoan Moncada on the injured list, but what’s left of the group has still been hitting the ball hard.
Chicago has the league’s third highest hard-hit rate in 2022, but it has managed just a .212 batting average, good for fifth lowest in the majors. The White Sox hold a middle of the pack slugging percentage of .348 but have the third highest xSLG at .499.
Luis Robert has the third-highest xSLG in baseball at .766 and leads the charge for a lineup that’s still hitting the ball well without some key names.
Cease is offering exceptional numbers across the board to start the 2022 campaign. Through five appearances and 22 innings, he has pitched to a 1.72 xERA and has been hard-hit just 24.1% of the time.
Cease features an elite fastball with high velocity and an excellent spin rate. Hitters are batting just .092 against Cease’s fastball so far this year, which is the lowest mark among qualified starters.
Expectations are very high for the right-hander after such a promising campaign in 2021, and it seems Cease is continuing to round into dominant form at 26 years old this season.
Angels-White Sox Pick
I feel we’ll see Cease manage another strong start here and keep what could potentially be a watered down Angels lineup in check .
With Sandoval’s stuff looking similar to what we saw last year, I think it’s unlikely we see this extreme level of success continue over the long haul and trending towards those numbers seems likely.
We see lots of pitchers dominate for 4-5 game stretches every season in this back-and-forth league of adjustments, but we do not see hardly any post the kind of results that Sandoval is posting over a large sample except the truly elite starters, which the lefty is not one of.
The White Sox have crushed left-handed pitching so far this season and offer a great candidate to find success against Sandoval. They’re altogether due for positive regression offensively, as well.
Chicago is the right club to finally hang some earned runs up on Sandoval this season to back Cease. I see value backing Chicago to win the first five innings at -125.
Pick: White Sox First 5 Innings Moneyline -125 (play to -130)