The Cleveland Guardians host the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 31, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ARID.
The Guardians are favored by -145 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Diamondbacks are +125 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Diamondbacks vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Guardians Pick: Mitch Bratt Under 1.5 Walks Allowed
My Diamondbacks vs Guardians best bet is a prop on Arizona's SP Mitch Bratt. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -171 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +125 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +141 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -145 |
- Diamondbacks vs Guardians moneyline: Diamondbacks +125, Guardians -145
- Diamondbacks vs Guardians over/under: 8.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Diamondbacks vs Guardians spread: Guardians -1.5 (+141 ), Diamondbacks +1.5 (-171)
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| LHP Mitch Bratt (ARI) | Stat | RHP Tanner Bibee (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 4-10 |
| -0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 6.32 / 5.09 | ERA / xERA | 3.89 / 4.49 |
| 7.44 / 6.65 | FIP / xFIP | 4.57 / 4.30 |
| -1.3% | K-BB% | 11.8% |
| 32.7% | GB% | 38.9% |
| .314 | BABIP | .257 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 95 | Location+ | 101 |
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
Mitch Bratt has put up some ugly surface-level numbers since getting called up by the Diamondbacks. Through four Major League starts, he’s surrendered 11 earned runs and issued 11 walks over just 15.2 innings pitched. His walk game-logs read two, three, one, and five — and I'm guessing that five-walk outing last time out is precisely why this market has overadjusted to the point where we now see real value.
Here’s the thing: it’s only four starts. We cannot place too much weight on a tiny four-game sample where variance reigns supreme. If you look at Bratt’s minor-league track record, he actually demonstrated really strong command and control. Expecting significant regression in his inflated walk rate isn't just reasonable — it’s supported by the long-term data.
Furthermore, there’s a wide range of outcomes regarding how deep he even pitches into this game. In two of his big-league starts, he threw just 54 and 58 pitches, compared to 84 and 92 in the others. I’m projecting him for around 81 pitches today, which naturally caps his volume and exposure to issuing multiple free passes.
At current market prices, Mitch Bratt Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+113 at DraftKings) is a strong play, and I like it all the way down to around -145.
Pick: Mitch Bratt Under 1.5 Walks Allowed
